Grading the 2010 NFL Draft - AFC East


They say you cannot really grade a draft until at least three years have gone by.  Players that look great in shorts may not translate well onto an NFL roster.  Players that are great in year one might fizzle out by year three.  Likewise, players that don’t even see the field in the first season may turn out to be complete studs by year three.  So here we are in 2013 and the draft class of 2010 has had three seasons to prove their mettle and therefore “they” say that we can now grade this draft class.  But how do we do this?  Do we simply use the eyeball test?  I am a nerd at heart and I love numbers.  So I have attempted to quantify things beyond just an eyeball test.  This is a far from perfect system.  It simply gives us a jumping off point in the discussion.

Please check out this link for an explanation on how I came about these numbers and what they mean.

This is part one…

The AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Player School Position Pick(Rd) Raw Score Weighted Score Draft Value
C. J. Spiller Clemson RB 9(1) 13.71 14.03 -61.00
Torell Troup UCF DT 41(2) 5.33 5.88 -132.00
Alex Carrington Arkansas State DE 72(3) 9.83 11.64 -44.00
Marcus Easley Connecticut WR 107(4) 0.63 0.80 -120.00
Ed Wang Virginia Tech OT 140(5) 1.25 1.70 -74.00
Arthur Moats James Madison DE 178(6) 10.82 15.73 75.00
Danny Batten South Dakota State LB 192(6) 5.83 8.69 23.00
Levi Brown Troy QB 209(7) 0.21 0.32 -28.00
Kyle Calloway Iowa OT 216(7) 0.00 0.00 -33.00
  • Total Raw Score: 47.61 (28th)
  • Total Weighted Score: 58.78 (28th)
  • Average Raw Score: 5.29 (32nd)
  • Average Weighted Score: 6.53 (32nd)
  • Total Draft Value: -394 (32nd)
  • Average Draft Value: -43.78 (32nd)

Analysis:  Overall the Bills 2010 draft offered very little value.  Spiller has provided decent offense but has been relegated to a change of pace back.  Normally a running back taken in the top ten overall is expected to be a full time starter and contributor.   A back injury has derailed a promising start to Troup’s career.  Carrington is part time role player which is poor value for a 3rd round pick.  Arthur Moats is the only other player to see much time.  It’s hard to imagine many drafts not even producing one full time starter three years later but the Bills have somehow done it.

Miami Dolphins

Player School Position Pick(Rd) Raw Score Weighted Score Draft Value
Jared Odrick Penn State DT 28(1) 12.94 13.86 -48.00
Koa Misi Utah DE 40(2) 16.85 18.56 5.00
John Jerry Ole Miss OT 73(3) 15.61 18.52 17.00
A. J. Edds Iowa LB 119(4) 2.29 2.99 -86.00
Nolan Carroll Maryland CB 145(5) 12.08 16.55 60.00
Reshad Jones Georgia S 163(5) 13.48 19.09 89.00
Chris McCoy Middle Tennessee LB 212(7) 0.00 0.00 -36.00
Austin Spitler Ohio State LB 252(7) 8.96 14.71 127.00
  • Total Raw Score: 82.21 (12th)
  • Total Weighted Score: 104.29 (12th)
  • Average Raw Score: 10.28 (9th)
  • Average Weighted Score: 13.04 (7th)
  • Total Draft Value: +128 (8th)
  • Average Draft Value: +16.00 (9th)

Analysis: After missing most of his rookie campaign, Odrick has slowly worked his way into the Dolphins’ starting lineup.  Looking at the value of the pick, Odrick hasn’t provided quite as much as a team would hope with a first round pick.  The true value of this draft is throughout almost its entirety.  Misi, Jerry, Carroll, and Jones have all become starters for the Dolphins. Spitler has become a role player.  The only two picks that were of little or no value were Edds and McCoy.  While the draft has not provided “star” power, it has provided starters all across the defense as well as a cornerstone offensive lineman.  It’s a draft that is not flashy but that every GM would take each and every year.

New England Patriots

Player School Position Pick(Rd) Raw Score Weighted Score Draft Value
Devin McCourty Rutgers CB 27(1) 20.58 22.00 21.00
Rob Gronkowski Arizona TE 42(2) 20.80 23.02 37.00
Jermaine Cunningham Florida DE 53(2) 11.29 12.82 -39.00
Brandon Spikes Florida LB 62(2) 15.29 17.71 3.00
Taylor Price Ohio WR 90(3) 1.25 1.54 -123.00
Aaron Hernandez Florida TE 113(4) 15.55 20.03 56.00
Zoltan Mesko Michigan P 150(5) 10.00 13.83 37.00
Ted Larsen NC State C 205(6) 15.30 23.30 147.00
Thomas Welch Vanderbilt OT 208(7) 3.20 4.90 14.00
Brandon Deaderick Alabama DT 247(7) 11.20 18.26 152.00
Kade Weston Georgia DT 248(7) 0.00 0.00 -6.00
Zac Robinson Oklahoma State QB 250(7) 1.04 1.71 31.00
  • Total Raw Score: 125.51 (1st)
  • Total Weighted Score: 159.10 (1st)
  • Average Raw Score: 10.46 (7th)
  • Average Weighted Score: 13.26 (6th)
  • Total Draft Value: +330 (1st)
  • Average Draft Value: +27.50 (5th)

Analysis:  Much is written about the “genius” of Bill Belichick.  Often times, this is said to be more perception than reality.  The constant movement up and down the draft board and the questionable picks are either genius or foolery.  In the 2010 draft, however, Coach Belichick lived up to his reputation.  The 2010 draft yielded five starters for the Patriots and one starter for the Tampa Bay Bucs in Ted Larsen.  Larsen was cut before the start of his rookie campaign and signed by the Bucs before he could be put on the practice squad and became a three year starter for his new team.  Meanwhile Belichick’s chance on an injured tight end made Rob Gronkowski the jewel of the draft and the bane of defensive secondaries.  Belichick turned a later draft pick into another tight end wreaking havoc on defenses in one Aaron Hernandez.  The selection of Devin McCourty raised eyebrows in April of 2010 but earned praise by the end of 2010.  The only completely questionable pick was Taylor Price in the third round.  Overall, simply a masterful draft which yielded starters, role players, superstars, and even a punter.

New York Jets

Player School Position Pick(Rd) Raw Score Weighted Score Draft Value
Kyle Wilson Boise State CB 29(1) 15.63 16.78 -26.00
Vladimir Ducasse Massachusetts OT 61(2) 7.38 8.53 -87.00
Joe McKnight USC RB 112(4) 8.38 10.78 -22.00
John Conner Kentucky FB 139(5) 9.44 12.78 20.00
  • Total Raw Score: 40.82 (31st)
  • Total Weighted Score: 48.86 (31st)
  • Average Raw Score: 10.21 (10th)
  • Average Weighted Score: 12.22 (11th)
  • Total Draft Value: -115 (28th)
  • Average Draft Value: -28.75 (29th)

Analysis:  The Jets only had four picks and needed to make them count.  Unfortunately this draft yielded one starter in Kyle Wilson, two role players, and one FB who now plays for the Cincinnati Bengals.  And even more unfortunately, the jettisoned player is the only one that lived up to his draft slot.  Wilson was forced into the starting role due to a Revis injury.  Ducasse has yet to live up to his enormous potential.  McKnight is a change of pace type of back and offers little more.  While the Jets manage to avoid drafting any “busts” they also avoided getting much value with their picks.  When a team has so few chances to make an impact they can’t afford to miss that impact every time.  Now three years later the Jets are in salary cap hell and many have pegged them to finish last in their division.  Perhaps this draft gives an interesting view into how exactly that began to happen.

Tags: 2010 Nfl Draft AFC East Buffalo Bills Miami Dolphins New England Patriots New York Jets

  • Willy W

    Im curious how 1 comes up with these “Numbers”, what are theybased on, how are they accumalated…
    I dont see anyway in hell that a player like Zac Robinson can end up with a + number?? And how do Larsen & Welch end up with positive numbers as well. Seems like a mighty big Stretch to me. I dont believe there can be a clearer Stat to prove the Quality of a teams draft more than your own Eyeballs.

    I will say that the last 2-3 years Bill has drafted much better than in previous years, if anyone cares to look at the huge amount of Bombs that Bill drafted before.
    The Best players drafted by the Pats for 2010 are clearly Gronk & Hernandez, with Mesko in there somewhere. McCourty is ok but certainly not an AllStar player like Gronk & Hernandez are & I dont need some odd ball stat to tell me that. The rest of the picks were ok to poor IMO.

    • unclealfie

      You’ve only shown why you are not not running a sophisticated draft analysis program. Clearly, you don’t understand the importance of statistics, among many other things.

      • Willy W

        I never said I had a sophisticated draft program But I listed all their picks, good & bad. A Bomb is a Bomb & they cant be denied. Show me where these Shitty picks have clearly helped the team & werent wastes of picks. You cant.

      • Willy W

        If I didnt list the draft picks here it is again.
        2000
        2. Klemm,3. Redmond, 4. Robinson-Randall, 5. Stachelski, 5. Marriott, 6. Harris, 6. Nugent, 7. Tisdale, 7. Pass
        Only Tom Brady(6) was a great pick.

        2001
        3. William, 4. Jones, 4. Holloway, 5. Akbar, 6. Love (TE), 6. Myers, 7. Pochman, 7. Turner
        Only Seymour (1) & Light (2) were great picks.

        2002
        1. Graham (TE), 4. Davey, 4. Green (DE), 7. Womack, 7. Givens
        Only Branch (2), maybe Givens were good picks.

        2003
        2. Wilson, 2. Johnson (WR), 4. Klecko, 6. Kingsbury, 7. Nead, 7. Banta-Cain, 7. Kelley
        Only Warren (1) (DL), Koppen (5) C were decent & good picks.

        2004
        2. Hill, 3. Scott (FS), 4. Reid (SS), 5. Sam (WR), 7. Morton (CB)
        Only Wilfork (1) (DT), & Watson (2) (TE) were great picks.

        2005
        3. Hobbs (CB), 4. Sanders (FS), 5. Claridge, 7. Cassel, 7. Stokes
        Only Mankins (1) was a great pick, Hobbs ok, Kaczur (3) (OL) decent to good, Cassel ok.

        2006
        2. Jackson (WR), 3. Thomas (TE), 4. Mills (TE), 5. O’Callaghan, 6. Mincey, 6. Stevenson, 6. Smith, 7. Andrews
        Only Maroney (1) (RB) & Gostkowski (4) were good picks.

        2007
        1. Meriweather, 4. Brown, 6. rogers, 6. Richardson, 6. Hairston, 6. Hilliard, 7. Lua, 7. Elgin
        Only Meriweather was Ok but terrible for 1st rd pick

        2008
        2. Wheatley (CB), 3. Crable, 3. O’Connell, 4. Wilhite (CB), 5. Slater (WR), 6. Ruud
        Only Slater was ok, he never made it as a WR but is valuable on Special Teams.

        2009
        2. Chung, 2. Brace, 2. Butler (CB), 3. Tate (WR), 3. McKenzie, 4. Ohrnberger, 5. Bussey, 6. Ingram, 6. Pryor 7. Eldelman,
        7. Richard
        Only Vollmer (2) has been Good but injury prone & Edelman(7) has been ok but Injury prone as well.

        2010
        1. McCourty (CB), 2. Cunningham, 3. Price (WR), 6. Larsen, 7. Welch, 7. Deaderick, 7. Weston, 7. Robinson (QB)
        One of their Best draft classes with Gronk-(2) & Hernandez(4) being Studs, McCourty is ok, Spikes is Good but not an every down LB, Mesko (5) good, Deaderick ok.

        2011
        2. Dowling (DB), 5. Smith (TE), 6. Carter, 7. Williams (CB)
        Another solid group with Solder (1) being Good but not Great, Vereen(2) good, Ridley(3) very good, Mallett (3) Decent, Cannon(5) decent.

      • Willy W

        So with that list you can see that from 2000 to 2011, 12 years, we drafted 80 Duds vs 26 Good to great players. I dont consider that good drafting BUT I must say that for 2010 & 2011 the ratio was very much in the other direction for some odd reason. Where the 2013 guys fall remains to be seen but Im not nearly as high on them as I was for the previously 2 years but Im willing to wait & see.

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