The 2018 NFL Draft will play home to a number of quarterbacks with Round 1 grades. Which teams might surprise the masses by selecting a quarterback?
The beauty of the NFL Draft is that most of our expectations will be shattered within a matter of minutes. All it takes is one team reaching for a prospect or another passing over a player whom we believed to be can’t-miss for the entire board to change.
Come the 2018 NFL Draft, there’s one position that will likely have a bigger influence than any other—and it’s the position you’d expect: Quarterback.
In alphabetical order, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Josh Rosen are all believed to be first-round locks in 2018. Joining them on that list are fringe prospects such as Luke Falk and Mason Rudolph, as well as the enigmatic Lamar Jackson.
It’s unlikely that seven quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round, but with the potential for four field generals to be selected in the top 10, it’s within the realm of possibility.
The underrated factor is that teams are far more picky with quarterbacks than they are at other positions. In other words: If the quarterback whom a general manager specifically wanted isn’t on the board, they may not select a quarterback at all in Round 1.
Knowing the precedent, one can’t help but ask: Which teams could capitalize on what transpires in the top 10 by unexpectedly selecting a quarterback later in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft?
Think the Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes II in 2017.
Baltimore Ravens
It’s half past time we start evaluating Joe Flacco for more than his legendary run to Super Bowl XLVII. For as brilliant as he was, Flacco hasn’t been able to replicate that magic in any of the five seasons that have followed.
Thus, while the Baltimore Ravens have remained loyal to Flacco during that time, they should at least consider selecting his replacement in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.
Flacco has thrown for upwards of 4,000 yards just once in 10 years as an NFL quarterback. He’s eclipsed 25 touchdowns just twice during that span, and has thrown at least 12 interceptions in each of the past five seasons.
Baltimore has drafted horrendously since winning the Super Bowl, but Flacco deserves at least some portion of the blame for the inconsistency.
Slated to pick at No. 16 overall, the Ravens could conceivably select a quarterback who falls down the board. The most likely candidates to do so are Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield—both of whom could play the Patrick Mahomes II role behind Flacco for a season.
Having completed the guaranteed portion of Flacco’s contract, the time may have arrived for the Ravens to find a quarterback who can change the culture.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals have surrounded Andy Dalton with a limited supply of competent offensive playmakers and pass protectors. A.J. Green is a future Hall of Famer, but Cincinnati’s offensive line is abhorrent and its running game proves a team can have too much depth.
Dalton was an MVP candidate in 2015 before he broke his thumb, but the Bengals need to change the culture—and that may require changing the quarterback.
Dalton has encountered his fair share of issues with interceptions, but he’s also experienced his moments of glory. Over the course of the past three seasons, he’s thrown for 68 touchdowns to 27 interceptions, including his 25 touchdowns to just seven picks in 2015.
Unfortunately, Dalton is playing in an unequivocally fractured culture that’s accepted mediocrity as a sufficient result—an unforgivable truth given the talent on the roster.
At No. 12 overall, Cincinnati could potentially land Oklahoma Sooners star Baker Mayfield. It could also be in a position to elect one of Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, or Josh Rosen if they happen to fall down the board—and crazier things have happened.
I’m not entirely sold on the belief that Dalton is the problem, but if Cincinnati wants to change the culture, then drafting a quarterback could be the answer.
Los Angeles Chargers
Philip Rivers has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in NFL history. 4,000 passing yards is more of an expectation than an achievement, and 30 touchdowns is always within reach for the former North Carolina State Wolfpack star.
Rivers is now 36 years of age, however, and has a potential out in his contract in 2019—one year before he becomes a 38-year-old free agent.
It’s possible that the Los Angeles Chargers will wait until the later rounds to find a quarterback at the 2018 NFL Draft. It also stands to reason that the Chargers aren’t high on any of the quarterbacks who could fall to No. 17 overall.
Father Time is undefeated, however, and he could soon be coming for Rivers—meaning Los Angeles must begin preparing for the future.
Baker Mayfield could be the perfect replacement for Rivers, due in large part to the fact that they share fiery personalities that other players have proven to rally around. It’s unclear if they’d get along, but the transition could make sense.
Regardless of whom the Chargers target, they must realize Rivers’ mortality and prepare for the future at some point this offseason.
Miami Dolphins
The Ryan Tannehill experiment has produced intriguing results, but by and large, it’s been underwhelming. Tannehill’s statistics are certainly solid, but he and the Miami Dolphins have been living far too comfortably in mediocrity.
With the 11th overall selection in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Dolphins may have an opportunity to find the player who ultimately replaces Tannehill under center.u
Tannehill could still be the answer, but he’s an already polarizing quarterback who’s now coming off of a torn ACL. That would be problematic for any quarterback, but Tannehill relies heavily on his athleticism, and hasn’t exactly achieved star status during his healthy seasons.
One could easily use Tannehill’s statistics in his defense, but the point here remains: Tannehill has yet to distinguish himself as a true franchise player.
Fortunately for the Dolphins, No. 11 is an ideal position for the organization to find itself in. It may not have a shot at Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen, but it could be in the running for any one of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, or Mason Rudolph.
Miami is more likely to wait until the second round if a top prospect doesn’t fall to it at No. 11, but it’s still an organization to watch closely as far as selecting a quarterback is concerned.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints have one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. For a brilliant as Drew Brees may be, he’s also 39 years of age and in a fight with Father time that no player has won before him—not a single player.
In possession of the No. 27 overall selection in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Saints will have an opportunity to potentially find an heir apparent.
There are other areas to target, but New Orleans should have a number of compelling options at quarterback at No. 27 overall. That list should include Luke Falk, Lamar Jackson, and Mason Rudolph, as well as Senior Bowl standout Mike White.
It’s also possible that New Orleans will wait until 2019 to choose from the quarterback pool, but even the almighty Brees has a shelf life.
Those might not be the most alluring options in this class, but there are steals in every NFL Draft. In the event that one of Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, or Josh Rosen slip to New Orleans’ range, the need for a quarterback will become even more significant.
Brees seems to have at least one more elite season left in him, but the Saints need to be proactive and find his heir apparent.
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None of these teams are guaranteed to select a quarterback at the 2018 NFL Draft, but all will at least be in the running to do so.