The 2023 NFL trade deadline is officially past and we saw a flurry of action. Chase Young and Montez Sweat being moved definitely will shake up needs in every mock draft, but I’m going to focus on the quarterbacks.
Kirk Cousins’ season came to a sudden halt with a torn Achilles on Sunday and the Vikings reacted in kind at the deadline. We are also at the halfway point of the season and have learned a lot about a number of young quarterbacks who needed to prove they were the man for the job. With such a deep and talented quarterback class on the horizon in the 2024 NFL draft, I figured now was a good time to check in on which teams could be in the mix come draft day.
These scores reflect how badly each team needs to add to its quarterback room.
1 - No Need
2 - Might need to add depth
3 - Not sure if the long-term starter is on the roster
4 - Need to find a new starter soon
5 - Quarterback is the biggest need on this team
If we had done this after Week 1, there is a chance some fans would say this should be higher than a 1. However, Josh Allen has settled in as Buffalo has looked dominant at times this season. Kyle Allen is a solid backup as well. I don't think the Bills will be using draft capital on a quarterback.
There were still a few questions about Tua Tagovailoa's health heading into the 2023 season. Those have not really gone away. A head injury would be detrimental, but it is hard to argue with how dominant Tua has been so far this year. As I am writing this, he is tied as the MVP betting favorite with Josh Allen. Mike White gives Miami a solid backup option as well if Tagovailoa misses time.
Mac Jones had his fair share of detractors entering the 2023 season, but there were plenty of excuses to point to for his struggles. It is getting harder to blame anyone other than Jones. His weapons are not great and his offensive line is far from elite, but his decision making has been shoddy. He lacks elite traits to begin with. Bailey Zappe does not seem like a true long-term starter either, which opens the door for the Patriots to take another first-round quarterback in the 2024 draft. New England currently holds the No. 5 pick, which would put them in the territory to land the third or fourth quarterback in this class.
The New York Jets might have the most complicated quarterback situation in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers was supposed to solve the issues that have plagued the position for the team for the better part of five decades. Instead, he took four snaps before suffering an Achilles tendon tear. Meanwhile, Zach Wilson has shown signs of progress this season but is still a below-average starter in the league. Rodgers is under contract through 2025. Wilson could be as well if the Jets pick up his fifth-year option, but that feels unlikely. In a deep quarterback class, it would make a lot of sense for the Jets to take a flier on a developmental prospect who could take over in a couple of years.
Lamar Jackson is playing efficient winning football in Baltimore once again, reminding everyone that he is a clear top 10 player at the position. His backup, 2022 Pro Bowler Tyler Huntley, is in the final year of his contract, but he had the opportunity to sign elsewhere this past offseason and did not get much attention. It would not be a surprise to see Baltimore bring him back on a multiyear deal.
After a slow start, it certainly seems like Joe Burrow is finding his groove once again. In the month of October, Burrow completed 75.5 percent of his passes while tossing eight touchdowns and just two interceptions. However, Cincinnati needs a more reliable backup plan. The Bengals would have been smart to rest Burrow early in the season as he recovered from his calf injury. A lack of faith in backup quarterback Jake Browning, who has never completed an NFL regular season pass, saw Burrow try to tough it out and struggle mightily as a result. Finding a veteran backup who can step in for those situations should be a priority this offseason.
I still think it is too early to start considering a replacement plan for Deshaun Watson in Cleveland, if for no other reason than it is too expensive. Watson has struggled with injuries and Browns fans have to hope that is the explanation for his lackluster play. He completed only 61.7 percent of his passes along with four touchdowns and three interceptions in his limited action this season. He ranks 24th in the league in QBR at this point, trailing players like Mac Jones, Jordan Love and Joshua Dobbs, the latter of whom Cleveland traded away prior to the start of the season. P.J. Walker is a decent backup, but I’m sure the Browns could find a better one. They already have a young prospect to develop in Dorian Thompson-Robinson as well.
At some point very soon, the Steelers will need to determine if Kenny Pickett is their franchise quarterback. He is only 19 starts into his NFL career, but it feels a bit like the Steelers are winning in spite of him and offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in scoring this season while Pickett sits 29th in QBR among qualified passers. Perhaps with a new play caller and a better offensive line, we could see Pickett start to flourish. That being said, I don’t think Pittsburgh can afford to ignore how talented the quarterback class is shaping up to be in the 2024 NFL draft.
C.J. Stroud seems well on his way to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year this season. Davis Mills and Case Keenum fill out a fairly experienced quarterback room in Houston. They are set here for the time being. It is too early to confidently say they hit on Stroud, but it sure seems to be trending in that direction.
Anthony Richardson’s rookie campaign came to an abrupt end after just three games. However, he showed more than enough flashes to excite Colts fans about the future. He still has plenty to work on, but it was an enticing start. Gardner Minshew is one of the best backups in the game. He is a free agent after the season, but Indianapolis would be wise to bring him back on a multiyear deal.
Trevor Lawerence has yet to live up to the hype that surrounded him when he was drafted. That being said, Jacksonville would be hard-pressed to find a better option at the position. Let me be clear, Lawrence has been good, but not elite. He just turned 24 last month (Kenny Pickett is already 25), so he has plenty of time to continue to grow. C.J. Beathard is a solid backup as well. Jacksonville could find an upgrade behind Lawrence, but it does not seem like a pressing need.
Let’s not overreact to one game, but wow, that was a hell of an NFL debut from Will Levis. Tennessee has drafted him and Malik Willis in recent years and will likely give those two a shot to win the job the remainder of this season. Bringing in another veteran to lead the room is certainly not out of the question, but it is hard to see the Titans being in the market for a quarterback in this upcoming draft.
While many will want to blame Russell Wilson for the Broncos’ offensive struggles, it is unfair to pin it all on him. Russ is actually fourth in the league in passing touchdowns this season with 16. Denver is likely going to undergo an overhaul in the next few years with Sean Payton now at the helm. I think the Broncos would be wise to draft Wilson’s successor, but not force the former Seahawks star out the door as soon as he arrives. Keeping him on through 2024 before looking to cut or trade him would give Denver a buffer at the position. The money is going to be tough either way and it gets easier every year the team waits to move on from him. A two-game win streak also takes them out of the Caleb Williams sweepstakes for the time being.
They have Patrick Mahomes.
Jimmy Garoppolo is not the answer in Sin City. Josh McDaniels was not either. Las Vegas is headed towards a top 10 pick in a good quarterback class. It is hard to imagine the Raiders passing on the position. The rest of the quarterback room, Brian Hoyer and Aidan O’Connell, is not going to stand in the way of spending premium draft capital at the position. Vegas will take an extended look at O’Connell now that McDaniels and general manager Dave Zeigler are both out. The Raiders have not drafted a quarterback in the first round since 2007. It’s understandable that Jamarcus Russell would scare people off from ever doing that again, but it is time for a true reset.
Justin Herbert is a good, young quarterback who the Chargers just committed a lot of money to this offseason. Eason Stick is in a contract year, so perhaps Los Angeles will want to find a new backup, but it is hard to see the Chargers making any meaningful moves at the position.
With Jerry Jones, you never know what to expect. Case in point, the Cowboys traded for Trey Lance just prior to the start of the season. Dak Prescott has been solid, if unspectacular so far this season, cutting down on the turnovers and playing smart football. He does not need to do a ton with Dallas’ defense dominating the majority of their opponents. Between him, Cooper Rush and Lance, this quarterback room is set through at least the 2024 season.
Injuries aside, it appears the Giants made a mistake in paying Daniel Jones. He has thrown just two touchdowns in five games this season to go along with six interceptions. He also has a terrible supporting cast. Despite only playing five games, Jones is the second-most sacked quarterback in the league this season. Darius Slayton is the team’s leading wide receiver in terms of yardage to this point as well with just 257 nearing the midway point of the season. It is hard to evaluate Jones in this scenario, but the Giants would definitely be smart to explore options to replace him this offseason.
The Eagles just paid Jalen Hurts and brought in Marcus Mariota this offseason to be his backup. Perhaps the Eagles could take a flier on a Day 3 quarterback to develop behind Hurts, but Philadelphia is clearly set at the position for the time being.
Is Sam Howell the long-term answer in Washington? I don’t know that he has done enough to definitively answer that question, but he has certainly given the Commanders some wiggle room at the position. Heading into the year, it seemed like Washington would be in the running to select Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in the 2024 draft. Now, it feels like they have options. If a quarterback they love on the table, Howell likely will not prevent them from making the move. However, he has done enough for Washington to prioritize other positions, namely offensive line, this upcoming offseason. After hanging onto Jacoby Brissett as well, it is hard to see the Commanders needing to make a big move unless they can pull off a blockbuster deal to land an elite quarterback.
Much like Washington, Chicago’s future at the position is unclear, but far from dire. Justin Fields has shown flashes this season, including a dismantling of those Commanders, but he has not been consistent. The Bears need to put more playmakers around him still and the offensive line is a work in progress. That being said, it seems like the Bears are going to end up with a pair of top five draft picks. If they have a chance to take Caleb Williams, I imagine they will find a new home for Fields. Anything else and the decision becomes a whole lot less clear. It is hard not to feel excited about the prospect of Fields playing behind Olu Fashanu while looking for Marvin Harrison Jr. downfield. That could be a recipe for success.
Jared Goff is proving to be one of the great success stories in the league. After being cast off by the Rams, he has rediscovered himself in Detroit. Playing for offensive coordinator Ben Johnson certainly helps, but Goff is playing at a Pro Bowl level. Teddy Bridgewater is also a very reliable backup. Plus, the team drafted Hendon Hooker in the 2023 draft. Much like Dallas, it feels like Detroit has a complete quarterback room.
At this point, we still don’t know if Jordan Love is “the guy” in Green Bay. He has been up and down this season. His completion percentage is abysmal at 57.7 on the year. It is slightly impacted by his 9.3 air yards per attempt, which leads the league. However, Love also has a league-worst -5.1 completion percentage over expectation. He will need to improve his accuracy if he is to have any chance of making it in the league. With a young receiving corps, the Packers could very well opt to give Love another year to grow with them and hope things improve in 2024. They also hold the No. 6 pick in the draft and could be in the running to land one of the top signal callers in the upcoming draft. It truly could cut either way at this stage.
The Vikings were already facing a big decision this offseason with Kirk Cousins set to enter free agency. It just got a lot more complicated with the 35-year-old suffering a season-ending Achilles injury against the Packers on Sunday. Minnesota pivoted at the deadline to add Josh Dobbs from the Cardinals, but that feels like a contingency plan more than a solution. The injury might actually make it easier to bring Cousins back, as it could scare off some potential suitors. If Cousins is not back, the Vikings will need to make a big move to find his successor. Their 4-4 record has them at the 20th pick currently, which could make it difficult to draft a Day 1 starter. Bringing back Dobbs if he plays well could be an option. So too could be giving rookie Jaren Hall an extended look. In short, this situation is a mess right now and the Vikings have a lot of major decisions coming up.
The Falcons chose to give Desmond Ridder a chance this offseason as opposed to making a run at Lamar Jackson or attempting to draft a quarterback. So far, that has not panned out very well. Ridder has struggled by just about every metric and the Falcons appear to be moving on from him in favor of Taylor Heinicke. It already felt like Atlanta needed a quarterback entering the year. Now, it looks like it could be the missing piece to an offense that has plenty of playmakers. With the Falcons currently leading the NFC South, it might not be easy to draft one of the top prospects in this class, but it is a deep group, so there will be more creative options Atlanta can pursue.
No need to worry about Bryce Young just yet. He has not played well, but neither has just about anyone in Carolina so far this season. Andy Dalton is a capable and experienced backup as well. If Young is still struggling this badly again next season, then Panthers fans can start to panic.
Derek Carr has not set the world on fire since joining New Orleans, but the Saints are in no position to replace him. With depth in Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill, it is hard to envision the Saints making any meaningful additions to their quarterback room in the 2024 offseason.
Baker Mayfield’s hot start takes the edge off just how badly the Buccaneers need to find Tom Brady’s successor, but they still need to do it. The likelihood is that won’t be a first-round quarterback. Tampa Bay currently owns the 13th pick in the draft. I think the Bucs would be better situated to build in the trenches with that first-round pick while finding a developmental quarterback prospect on Day 2. There will be prospects on the board in the second and third rounds in 2024 worth selecting and developing.
Arizona has taken one of the most interesting approaches to their quarterback situation this year. After trading for Josh Dobbs just prior to the season to fill in for the injured Kyler Murray, the Cardinals shipped out Dobbs at the trade deadline despite Murray not being 100 percent ready to go. Rookie Clayton Tune will be the fill-in going forward. On top of that, the Cardinals currently have the worst record in the league and sit in poll position to draft Caleb Williams. Perhaps Arizona would want to run it back with Kyler and net a huge haul for the No. 1 pick. They don’t need to replace Murray, but the former Oklahoma star has struggled to stay healthy and Williams would give them the ability to reset the franchise.
Matthew Stafford did what he was brought in to do. The Rams won a Super Bowl. Now, it is time for Los Angeles to start working on a succession plan. Stafford has struggled with injuries over the past two seasons, most recently dealing with a thumb injury. After years of the “Blank them picks” approach in L.A., Stan Kroenke has a first round pick for the first time since selecting Jared Goff in 2016. The Rams are currently slated to pick No. 10 overall, which could put them in range to select one of the top quarterbacks in this draft class. Maybe the team believes in Stetson Bennett long term, whom it drafted in the fourth round this past year, but it seems very likely that Los Angeles will select a passer during the first two days of the draft.
Like it or not, Brock Purdy is the 49ers franchise quarterback. Heading into the season, there was definitely a bit of uncertainty, but after trading away Trey Lance and Purdy’s impressive play (save the past two weeks), there is no debate anymore. San Francisco has an experienced backup as well in Sam Darnold. The 49ers are set at the position, just not in a way any of could have predicted two years ago.
Seattle Seahawks
Preseason QB Need: 2
Current QB Need: 2
Geno Smith is proving that last season was not a fluke. While his numbers are nowhere near as prolific, he is still providing Seattle with above-average quarterback play. The only reason the Seahawks don’t register as a 1 for me on this list is because of Drew Lock. He has been fine in relief and has some starting experience, which is valuable for a backup quarterback. However, he signed a one-year contract this past offseason. If Lock does not come back, the Seahawks will need to find some insurance behind Smith.