Grading the NFL Draft - An Explanation


As you go through my 2010 NFL Draft grades here are some things to remember.

Assumptions

So how do we go about grading a draft from three years ago?  I’m going to start by using the assumption that a team drafts in order to add players to the roster who contribute to the team.  Hopefully a handful of these contributors also become starters.  So players that play in a significant amount of games represent a well utilized draft pick. And players that are starters for their team even more so.  And finally, contributing players acquired with later picks are a better demonstration of getting “value” in the draft.

Methodology

Going by the aforementioned assumptions a score is assigned to each player based on the number of game appearances.  A second score was assigned based on the percentage of those games that the player was a starter.  Extra score was given to those players that were awarded Pro-Bowl appearances and 1st Team All-Pro.  These scores were added together to give a “raw score”.  Weight is then added based on the pick being used to give us a total value score.  In addition, I have taken the “raw score” for each player and come up with a crude order of true draft position.  In that we can get a sense of whether a player is under or over drafted based on their raw score number versus their actual draft order.

Caveats

As I tried to explain in the introduction to each section, I am trying to quantify things that are difficult or impossible to quantify.  There are some inherent flaws in the system.  First of all, because of the assumptions of value being contribution, data is skewed towards players who have had little to no durability issues.  It also does not take into account actual production or position.  Therefore a wide receiver who is not a starter but gives a team 1,000 yards a year receiving is valued less than a starting fullback who only plays 15 snaps a game and has very little production.  These flaws are very apparent when you view the Cleveland Browns, a team very near and dear to my heart.  Shawn Lauvao has a higher raw score than Joe Haden and a much higher weighted score.   Yet despite a few glaring issues, I feel that the numbers I have come up with are a great starting point in talking about the value produced from the 2010 NFL draft

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Tags: 2010 Nfl Draft