Will the Lions have a better passing attack after losing Calvin Johnson?
By jonfox
The loss of Calvin Johnson is seen as a major setback for the Detroit Lions, but it could potentially add some diversity to the offensive attack.
Matt Stafford did an interview with XM Radio where he stated that the Lions will be tougher to defend because teams would key on Calvin Johnson and now they’re not going to know what to key on(paraphrasing him).
Is he right? Well…probably not.
The problem with Stafford’s analysis is that it doesn’t appear that there’s any correlation between Johnson’s production and the Lions’ success. In Lions’ wins in 2015, the Lions targeted Calvin Johnson 37.9% of the time with Stafford’s passes. In Lions’ losses in 2015, the Lions targeted 37.4% of the time with Stafford’s passes. In terms of receptions, in the Lions’ 2015 wins, Johnson got 17.1% of the receptions. In the losses, he got 15.4%.
Neither difference in stats is statistically significant. And can be explained by factors such as matchups, health, weather, etc. In short, there was no real difference in his production in losses or wins. If, for instance, Johnson was significantly a larger amount of the passing attack in wins than in wins, then Stafford might have a real point: teams could beat the Lions by taking Johnson out of a game.
The stats do prove one thing: Calvin Johnson was the biggest target for the Lions’ passing game in 2015. And going into 2016, teams aren’t going to be sure who will be the primary guy to replace Johnson’s production in the passing game.
But this deception only goes so far and much like new offenses and starters, it only lasts until teams get new tape to watch. The Lions had a top 10 passing offense in 2015 with Johnson being the primary focus for it. And while Johnson was drawing double and triple teams for the Lions, the other wideouts and receiving targets struggled to thrive much like they have during the Calvin Johnson era in Detroit. Freeing up defenses from having to put their best cover corner with safety help on one target is going to almost certainly mute the effectiveness of the remaining receivers.
How can they replace Johnson’s contributions to their passing game? That’s simple: don’t try to. The odds that Marvin Jones, Andre Roberts and Jeremy Kerley-their three biggest name wideout acquisitions in 2016-can replace Johnson’s production and the threat that he represents to opposing defenses are slim at best.
They did better by having more balance in their offense. Now that they have Taylor Decker and Stevan Ridley, the Lions’ best plan to compensate for the loss of Calvin Johnson will be to pound the ball more and use play action to free up Ebron, Jones and Tate.
Asking Jones and Tate to replicate the 2000 receiving yards and 23 receiving TDs that Johnson and Tate had in 2015 is just asking too much. They need to change some of those passing yards and TDs into rushing yards and TDs otherwise they’ll be desperately looking for a top flight wideout in the 2017 offseason, which isn’t what they should be focusing on.