Players to Watch– Andrew Luck

As we wade through the worst NFL off season in recent memory there is one certainty we can hang our hats on. There will be football come this fall. While I, and most others, believe we will have an NFL season in the fall, I can guarantee you there will at least be college football. Over the next few weeks I’ll be examining some intriguing prospects and telling you what we might see from them over the next 6 months.

Andrew Luck

This should come as no shock to anyone as Andrew Luck was the most talked about player last season prior to decision day. Luck then shocked the world as he followed Jake Locker’s footsteps, by being the projected first overall pick and deciding to stay in school for another year. While I’ll admit, I was part of the crowd of NFL fans thinking that was a terrible decision, we must put it behind us.

Coming off a spectacular 2010 campaign, Luck may have a tough job filling his own shoes this fall. From 2009 to 2010, Luck made a remarkable jump and became arguably the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning. Last year, Luck completed 263 of his 372 passes for a 70.7% completion rate, which put him in the top 5 of all Division 1-A QB’s. And of those top 5 quarterbacks (Dan Persa, Scott Tolzien, Kellen Moore, and Greg McElroy) Luck was second only to Kellen Moore in attempts, passing yards, and touchdowns. As I said, it was a spectacular season for Luck.

However, the landscape has changed for Luck. Coach Harbaugh has left for the greener pastures of the NFL, and offensive coordinator David Shaw is stepping in as the new head coach. While some believe there is no reason to worry because Shaw was the real reason for Luck and ultimately, Stanford’s success in 2010, I’m not buying it. Coach Harbaugh is generally respected as a “quarterback guru”, and changing coaches is never easy on a team. Granted, promoting your offensive coordinator is better for continuity, but there will always be some changes. No two coaches are the same, and what player do coaches spend the most time with? The quarterback.

Furthermore, Luck’s 2010 numbers were so incredible that even with a great year, he may not reach those numbers again. Take Jake Locker for example: he was generally considered the future first overall pick going into the 2009 draft. Locker decided to return to Washington for his senior season and saw his stats drop in every single category. I’m not saying Luck is doomed to disappoint everyone, but the god-like praise he is receiving from some analysts, has gone a bit far.

Despite these changes, Luck is still an incredible talent who is going to put up some big numbers. He is simply too good of a player, and hey, for all of my knocks on Jake Locker, the guy was drafted 8th overall this year. Luck is going to help Stanford win plenty of games this fall, just don’t be surprised if you see his stats drop a little. I’m predicting somewhere in the neighborhood of 24-27 touchdowns while completing around 63-65% of his passes. Still very respectable stats, and barring some massive injury, I fully expect to hear “With the 1st pick in the NFL draft, the (insert worst team in football next year) select Andrew Luck”.

There you have it. Please feel free to leave your comments and check back for more prospect analysis coming soon.