“It’s a new thing, check out this I bring” – Chuck D
Thanks for the intro Chuck. I chose this as the title for my first post because a) it’s one of my favorite rap songs by one of the greatest rap groups in history and b) because with the new CBA (hopefully) getting done in the next few days, you’re going to be flooded with 4 months of information back-up.
Most leagues will be drafting over the next 6 weeks and this condensed free-agency period is going to make things very challenging. You will hear a lot of “hype” about “player x” looks like he’s in the best shape of his career and “he looks ready to have a career year”. The trick is going to be how to separate when that is true and when believing it will end your season by week 4.
Despite changes in the league, I still subscribe to the theory that Fantasy Football Championships are won with strong running backs. This is where listening to hype will kill you. Whether it’s Roger Craig, Terrell Davis, Marshall Faulk or Shaun Alexander we see the the same story almost every year. The player who suffers through a couple of injury-plagued seasons comes into camp having worked out all off-season, looks to be in phenomenal shape, and starts tearing it up in 7 on 7’s. That leads to stories about how “he’s ready to re-claim his spot at the top”. The problem is once running backs lose it – they LOSE it. We’ve been watching it get worse and worse for years. Why do you think so many teams are trying to use time shares?
So with all that said here’s a few running backs I’m predicting will get a least one story written about them being in great shape looking to bounce back.
1. Clinton Portis
2. Thomas Jones
3. Ronnie Brown
4. Marion Barber
5. Brandon Jacobs
These players all have been useful fantasy players in the past. Portis and Brown will likely be with new teams this year and in a normal year we would already have a good idea by now about what their teams had planned for them.
So be very careful if you’re thinking about drafting any of these guys or any others of their ilk. I’m not saying completely take them off your cheat sheets, but beware of ranking them too high based on a few preseason blurbs about how good they’ve looked in camp. That will almost always get you beat.