Draft Analysis: The Wildcard With Luck

The “Suck for Luck campaign is on and we can already see who some of the front runners are. Miami, Indianapolis, and St. Louis are all winless at this point, and all three are failing to show signs of life. With the Rams having drafted Sam Bradford in the 2010 draft, it seems unlikely that they would spend the number one overall pick on Luck. Rather, the Rams would most likely auction the pick off for a king’s ransom. If the Dolphins or Colts (or a host of other quarterback needy teams) end up with the first overall pick, it seems certain they will draft Luck. However, there is a third scenario, which not enough people are talking about.

Andrew Luck is arguably the greatest football prospect the world has seen since Peyton Manning. Some scouts and analysts are even projecting Luck as a better prospect than Manning, due to his mobility. I am not willing to project Luck ahead of the best quarterback in history (yea, I said it, the best!) but it is clear that Luck has the ability to change a franchise for the next 10-15 years. After the amazing number from last season, it seemed clear that Luck would be drafted first overall (which is typically enough incentive for a player to declare for the draft). Luck then shocked the world as he followed Jake Locker’s footsteps, by being the projected first overall pick and deciding to stay in school for another year. A possibility that is not getting enough press…Luck could do it again.

Luck is a senior at Stanford this year, but he is a redshirt senior. As a redshirt senior, Luck still retains one year of college eligibility and, as crazy as it sounds, could defer the NFL for a second straight year. If this happens, this would be the first time in history where a player projected as the first overall pick has deferred the draft twice. It would shock the world and destroy the dreams of one franchise’s fans. While this possibility may seem preposterous, there are some legitimate reasons that could lead to Luck deferring the draft. Luck has mentioned his desire for a national championship and may stay for one last attempt. Also, it has been suggested that Luck has a desire to play immediately in the NFL and would be hesitant about joining a team like the Colts, with an incumbent starter. Luck could in theory, wait to see how the NFL season plays out and if he does not wish to play for a particular franchise, defer the draft.

At this point, I do not believe that Luck will defer the NFL draft for a second straight year. The risk of injury is far too high in football, and another season in college could put his draft stock at risk. Also, one of Luck’s primary reasons for returning to Stanford this year was to finish his undergraduate degree. After this season Luck will have completed his degree and the only rational for staying would be to play another year of college football. Also, if Luck chooses to defer the draft for a second straight year, his draft stock may take a hit, as teams begin to doubt his willingness or desire to play in the NFL. We are still many months away from ending the “Suck for Luck” saga, but realize that under the right circumstances, we may be having the “Suck for Luck round 2” this time next year.