Grading the 2010 NFL Draft – AFC East
By Doug Kitts
They say you cannot really grade a draft until at least three years have gone by. Players that look great in shorts may not translate well onto an NFL roster. Players that are great in year one might fizzle out by year three. Likewise, players that don’t even see the field in the first season may turn out to be complete studs by year three. So here we are in 2013 and the draft class of 2010 has had three seasons to prove their mettle and therefore “they” say that we can now grade this draft class. But how do we do this? Do we simply use the eyeball test? I am a nerd at heart and I love numbers. So I have attempted to quantify things beyond just an eyeball test. This is a far from perfect system. It simply gives us a jumping off point in the discussion.
Please check out this link for an explanation on how I came about these numbers and what they mean.
This is part one…
The AFC East
Buffalo Bills
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. J. Spiller | Clemson | RB | 9(1) | 13.71 | 14.03 | -61.00 |
| Torell Troup | UCF | DT | 41(2) | 5.33 | 5.88 | -132.00 |
| Alex Carrington | Arkansas State | DE | 72(3) | 9.83 | 11.64 | -44.00 |
| Marcus Easley | Connecticut | WR | 107(4) | 0.63 | 0.80 | -120.00 |
| Ed Wang | Virginia Tech | OT | 140(5) | 1.25 | 1.70 | -74.00 |
| Arthur Moats | James Madison | DE | 178(6) | 10.82 | 15.73 | 75.00 |
| Danny Batten | South Dakota State | LB | 192(6) | 5.83 | 8.69 | 23.00 |
| Levi Brown | Troy | QB | 209(7) | 0.21 | 0.32 | -28.00 |
| Kyle Calloway | Iowa | OT | 216(7) | 0.00 | 0.00 | -33.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 47.61 (28th)
- Total Weighted Score: 58.78 (28th)
- Average Raw Score: 5.29 (32nd)
- Average Weighted Score: 6.53 (32nd)
- Total Draft Value: -394 (32nd)
- Average Draft Value: -43.78 (32nd)
Analysis: Overall the Bills 2010 draft offered very little value. Spiller has provided decent offense but has been relegated to a change of pace back. Normally a running back taken in the top ten overall is expected to be a full time starter and contributor. A back injury has derailed a promising start to Troup’s career. Carrington is part time role player which is poor value for a 3rd round pick. Arthur Moats is the only other player to see much time. It’s hard to imagine many drafts not even producing one full time starter three years later but the Bills have somehow done it.
Miami Dolphins
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Odrick | Penn State | DT | 28(1) | 12.94 | 13.86 | -48.00 |
| Koa Misi | Utah | DE | 40(2) | 16.85 | 18.56 | 5.00 |
| John Jerry | Ole Miss | OT | 73(3) | 15.61 | 18.52 | 17.00 |
| A. J. Edds | Iowa | LB | 119(4) | 2.29 | 2.99 | -86.00 |
| Nolan Carroll | Maryland | CB | 145(5) | 12.08 | 16.55 | 60.00 |
| Reshad Jones | Georgia | S | 163(5) | 13.48 | 19.09 | 89.00 |
| Chris McCoy | Middle Tennessee | LB | 212(7) | 0.00 | 0.00 | -36.00 |
| Austin Spitler | Ohio State | LB | 252(7) | 8.96 | 14.71 | 127.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 82.21 (12th)
- Total Weighted Score: 104.29 (12th)
- Average Raw Score: 10.28 (9th)
- Average Weighted Score: 13.04 (7th)
- Total Draft Value: +128 (8th)
- Average Draft Value: +16.00 (9th)
Analysis: After missing most of his rookie campaign, Odrick has slowly worked his way into the Dolphins’ starting lineup. Looking at the value of the pick, Odrick hasn’t provided quite as much as a team would hope with a first round pick. The true value of this draft is throughout almost its entirety. Misi, Jerry, Carroll, and Jones have all become starters for the Dolphins. Spitler has become a role player. The only two picks that were of little or no value were Edds and McCoy. While the draft has not provided “star” power, it has provided starters all across the defense as well as a cornerstone offensive lineman. It’s a draft that is not flashy but that every GM would take each and every year.
New England Patriots
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin McCourty | Rutgers | CB | 27(1) | 20.58 | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| Rob Gronkowski | Arizona | TE | 42(2) | 20.80 | 23.02 | 37.00 |
| Jermaine Cunningham | Florida | DE | 53(2) | 11.29 | 12.82 | -39.00 |
| Brandon Spikes | Florida | LB | 62(2) | 15.29 | 17.71 | 3.00 |
| Taylor Price | Ohio | WR | 90(3) | 1.25 | 1.54 | -123.00 |
| Aaron Hernandez | Florida | TE | 113(4) | 15.55 | 20.03 | 56.00 |
| Zoltan Mesko | Michigan | P | 150(5) | 10.00 | 13.83 | 37.00 |
| Ted Larsen | NC State | C | 205(6) | 15.30 | 23.30 | 147.00 |
| Thomas Welch | Vanderbilt | OT | 208(7) | 3.20 | 4.90 | 14.00 |
| Brandon Deaderick | Alabama | DT | 247(7) | 11.20 | 18.26 | 152.00 |
| Kade Weston | Georgia | DT | 248(7) | 0.00 | 0.00 | -6.00 |
| Zac Robinson | Oklahoma State | QB | 250(7) | 1.04 | 1.71 | 31.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 125.51 (1st)
- Total Weighted Score: 159.10 (1st)
- Average Raw Score: 10.46 (7th)
- Average Weighted Score: 13.26 (6th)
- Total Draft Value: +330 (1st)
- Average Draft Value: +27.50 (5th)
Analysis: Much is written about the “genius” of Bill Belichick. Often times, this is said to be more perception than reality. The constant movement up and down the draft board and the questionable picks are either genius or foolery. In the 2010 draft, however, Coach Belichick lived up to his reputation. The 2010 draft yielded five starters for the Patriots and one starter for the Tampa Bay Bucs in Ted Larsen. Larsen was cut before the start of his rookie campaign and signed by the Bucs before he could be put on the practice squad and became a three year starter for his new team. Meanwhile Belichick’s chance on an injured tight end made Rob Gronkowski the jewel of the draft and the bane of defensive secondaries. Belichick turned a later draft pick into another tight end wreaking havoc on defenses in one Aaron Hernandez. The selection of Devin McCourty raised eyebrows in April of 2010 but earned praise by the end of 2010. The only completely questionable pick was Taylor Price in the third round. Overall, simply a masterful draft which yielded starters, role players, superstars, and even a punter.
New York Jets
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Wilson | Boise State | CB | 29(1) | 15.63 | 16.78 | -26.00 |
| Vladimir Ducasse | Massachusetts | OT | 61(2) | 7.38 | 8.53 | -87.00 |
| Joe McKnight | USC | RB | 112(4) | 8.38 | 10.78 | -22.00 |
| John Conner | Kentucky | FB | 139(5) | 9.44 | 12.78 | 20.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 40.82 (31st)
- Total Weighted Score: 48.86 (31st)
- Average Raw Score: 10.21 (10th)
- Average Weighted Score: 12.22 (11th)
- Total Draft Value: -115 (28th)
- Average Draft Value: -28.75 (29th)
Analysis: The Jets only had four picks and needed to make them count. Unfortunately this draft yielded one starter in Kyle Wilson, two role players, and one FB who now plays for the Cincinnati Bengals. And even more unfortunately, the jettisoned player is the only one that lived up to his draft slot. Wilson was forced into the starting role due to a Revis injury. Ducasse has yet to live up to his enormous potential. McKnight is a change of pace type of back and offers little more. While the Jets manage to avoid drafting any “busts” they also avoided getting much value with their picks. When a team has so few chances to make an impact they can’t afford to miss that impact every time. Now three years later the Jets are in salary cap hell and many have pegged them to finish last in their division. Perhaps this draft gives an interesting view into how exactly that began to happen.