2016 NFL Draft Stock Watch: Week 10 Risers and Fallers

Nov 7, 2015; Lincoln, NE, USA; Michigan State Spartans quarterback Connor Cook (18) throws the ball against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

Connor Cook, QB Michigan State- This author isn’t high on Cook to begin with, but while he puts up good yardage numbers, he’s not improving his mechanics to the point where he should be a top 10 pick.

This isn’t to say that he won’t be a top 10 pick, teams don’t make rational decisions especially those badly run NFL franchises.

Cook reminds this author of Chad Pennington: good decisions, but bad mechanics and just doesn’t have the arm strength that he needs. And in a west coast offense, he could do very well. But you’re never going to get a “franchise QB” unless something dramatic changes. 

If he’s drafted with the expectation that he can be anything more than this, it will be a disaster ultimately.

The best example of this was his first half against Nebraska: he put up decent numbers but he was constantly throwing off of his back foot. This a big red flag, more so that he still hasn’t improved this despite being a long time starter at Michigan State.

Nov 7, 2015; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; General view of the line of scrimmage between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the LSU Tigers during the second quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

LSU offensive linemen- This applies to Vadal Alexander and Jerald Hawkins more than anyone else. They weren’t good against Alabama.

And before it’s pointed out that it was Alabama: they’ve done well against them in the recent past. They rushed for 183 yards against them in 2014. 161(minus Mettenberger’s -22 yards) in 2012.

So it can be done. And Fournette is the type of power RB that should have thrived against the Alabama defense. He struggled, but it wasn’t because he couldn’t get to the corner at full speed. He struggled because he had to fight off defenders in the backfield regularly.

Alexander and Hawkins are going to pay the price for this loss in their draft stock. Both were 20-50 prospects(late first to mid 2nd).

Unless the rebound with good performances against good defenses, it’s hard to see them as first round picks right now.

Trevone Boykin, QB TCU- He came into the draft process as a senior this year with two big strikes against him: 1-he throws a lot of INTs for a college QB and 2-he’s thrived in Patterson’s spread system.

Scouts were concerned that the system hid his bad decision making and weak(er) throwing arm too much. But with TCU’s offensive success before Saturday night and with the dearth of quality pocket passers available in the draft, scouts were giving him a second look.

After his 4 INT night against an so-so Oklahoma State defense, it’s hard to see him being seen as anything more than a late round flyer project. Much like Brett Hundley was seen in the 2015 draft.

Of course he’ll be asked to move to WR or TE, but his arm talent seems good enough to allow him to get some reps at QB-even if its just as a 3rd stringer/development guy.

What should concern the scouts the most about his performance was that even outside of his 4 INTs, he made poor decisions all night long and is lucky that he didn’t have 3 more INTs.

If he wants to rebound, he has to give the scouts a reason to think that he could run a pro style offense. Right now, this isn’t happening.

Nov 7, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Tigers quarterback Paxton Lynch (12) throws the ball over Navy Midshipmen defensive end Will Anthony (90) during the first half at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Paxton Lynch, QB Memphis- That loud noise you heard Saturday night wasn’t just the Justin Fuente/Memphis Tigers bandwagon crashing and burning with their awful loss to Navy.

Also in that crash was the draft stock of Paxton Lynch as well. Navy exposed him for what he was: an indecisive gunslinger who has bad mechanics. And his stats in that game were significantly worse than they have been(averages and advanced stats).

This tape will be heavily scrutinized by the scouts to see if this was a fluke or a pattern. More than anything, teams will want to see if Navy’s defensive plan is copied with the same results.

Lynch started this season as a 5th round talent at best and a dearth of NFL ready pocket passers combined with his play have made him rise. We’ll see how long that draft stock stays high.

Shawn Oakman, DL Baylor- Oakman is a player who was seen as a 1st round pick completely on an unearned reputation. He’s arguably the most amazing physical specimen in college football and became famous from photos taken at a recent bowl game.

To be fair to Oakman, he had been playing fairly well for Baylor and 3-4 defensive teams were interested in him as a 5 tech DE. With his combo of size and speed, he looked like a potential star.

Against Kansas State, he was neutralized by an middling draft prospect in AJ Allen. One play that stands out as an example is here.

With his off the field baggage(multiple suspensions) and now increasingly ineffective play, it’s hard to see him staying in the first round barring a rebound.