2016 Mock Draft 5: Picks #17-31
By jonfox
2016 NFL Mock Draft
Time for a full 1st round mock draft now that the big waves of free agency have crested. As always, this is not a mock draft of what this author would do. It’s a mock draft based on what the team is likely to do based on the current perceptions of the prospects in college football.
17. Atlanta Falcons: Kenny Clark, DL UCLA
That Seahawks defensive system that Quinn wants to run sure loves to find 3 tech linemen and make them play the 2 and 1. Clark would seem to be a major fit for that.
Babineaux has been a warrior for the Falcons for years but he’s slowing down and with Hageman being not much more than a big body, they need a leverage guy to start and tie up blockers. Clark is very good at using his hands and leverage to frustrate blockers and get penetration. The issue with him is that you’re probably not going to get many sacks from him ever.
18. Indianapolis Colts: Shaq Lawson, DL Clemson
The Colts were 22nd in sacks in 2015 and unless they add some talent on the edge, it doesn’t look like that will improve. They finally admitted that they made a mistake on Bjoern Werner but Trent Cole just isn’t enough to team with the rapidly aging Robert Mathis.
Lawson can play the 5, 7, 9 and outside linebacker spots for the Colts. He needs work, especially on developing moves but his power would be appreciated on passing downs in 2016. He also could move to End if the Colts ever went back to a 4-3 defense.
19. Buffalo Bills: Noah Spence, EDGE/DL Eastern Kentucky
The Bills, in this scenario, would have taken either Ogbah or Lawson if they made it to this pick. Stuck here, they’ll console themselves with Noah Spence and hope he can stay out of trouble.
Spence has undeniable pass rushing skills and physical tools which are off the charts. Some even think he’s more talented than his former teammates Darron Lee and Joey Bosa. It’s just keeping him clean off the field is the problem with him.
20. New Orleans Saints(from New York Jets): Sheldon Rankins, DL Louisville
So, the Saints move down 8 spots, pick up a couple younger players who could use a change of scenary and still get a top 12 talent. Rankins could go this late for 2 reasons: 1-Andrew Billingsi s seen as the better prospect and 2-the perception is that Rankins is strictly a 1 tech tackle.
The Saints could use a 1 tech in the worst way so they’re very happy with how this draft turned out for them. Rankins is a penetrator who loves to get into backfields and cause havoc. Dennis Allen will need that since his system is predicated on the press buying enough time for the line to get to the quarterback.
21. Denver Broncos(from Washington Redskins, Redskins get pick #31 and Broncos’ 3rd round pick and a future 2nd round pick): Paxton Lynch, QB Memphis
And we have another trade. John Elway is no fool: Mark Sanchez might be decent for a season but he’s not the long term answer for them at quarterback. The Redskins are more than happy to move back and net more picks to fill their many holes.
Elway also knows that with their cap situation, draft picks are the only real way that he’ll fill the many new holes on the team but he also knows that having a 1st round talent at quarterback worth a lot more to rebuilding his team than having a new 1st round defensive end and mid round quarterback.
22. Houston Texans: Hunter Henry, TE Arkansas
It all really comes down to if the Texans are going to maximize their big investments at running back and quarterback. They have a quality offensive line when healthy and they have a budding superstar at wideout in Nuk Hopkins.
What they don’t have is a real receiving threat at tight end. Henry is far from a great prospect, but having him means that their play action will have more bite and Osweiler has a safety valve in case Hopkins is being triple teamed.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Michael Thomas, WR Ohio State
Teddy Bridgewater isn’t going to develop as a passer unless he gets a receiving target who Teddy can throw anywhere near and he’ll catch the ball. Thomas has some flaws and I don’t have him rated as a first rounder but he could be effective in this role.
The alternative is for the Vikings to invest in the tight end spot and have them be the “big catch radius” target. Why not Doctson over Thomas? Doctson is the better prospect but he needs time. Thomas might not improve as much but he should be a starting level flanker.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Josh Doctson, WR TCU
The Bengals can’t get this pick up to the podium fast enough. It’s going to be an interesting year in the Queen City of the west. Losing Hue, Andre Smith and a lot of the wideouts means that they need to create new matchup problems or they’ll regress.
Doctson needs work, but with Eifert and AJ Green running routes with him, the pressure will be off for him to put up 70 catches for 1100 yards.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers: Mackensie Alexander, DB Clemson
There’s going to be no problems between the mouthy Alexander and the usually staid Steelers’ organization. If they can be fine with Antonio Brown, James Harrison and many others, they’ll be fine with Alexander’s swagger.
Eli Apple might be a better fit for the Steelers since they need defensive backs who can tackle more than a pure cover guy but their corners are so poor that they need the coverage skills before they need tacklers.
26. Seattle Seahawks: Jason Spriggs, OL Indiana
If they don’t make a move for a vet like Beatty, Clady or Thomas, then they almost certainly will be taking the best left tackle that they can draft here.
Spriggs might not seem like a good fit for the Seahawks since they like to power run, but they actually prefer faster and more mobile tackles and more power for the interior of the line. If they find a quality left tackle elsewhere a right tackle like Conklin would make a lot of sense.
27. Green Bay Packers:Vernon Butler, DL Louisana Tech
The Pack are still hopeful that Raji will return, either during the summer or in 2017. Even if he does return, they just aren’t getting what they need to from Datone Jones and they’ll have to add talent on the defensive line.
Butler can move between the 0, 3 and 5 for them. He’s clearly a raw prospect coming out of Louisiana Tech but his physical tools are quite considerable. Drafting him is drafting a project but one where you should see a functional player at the right positions in his rookie year.
28. Kansas City Chiefs: Leonard Floyd, OLB UGA
After the Justin Houston injury news the Chiefs need an outside rusher. Frank Zombo is still Frank Zombo, Tamba Hali will be 33 by the end of the 2016 season and Dee Ford is still a mystery.
Floyd is a project, but he has truly amazing physical skills. The Chiefs don’t need a starting rusher, they need a rotational guy for the 2016 season and hope that Dee Ford steps up. If he can’t then they’ll need Floyd to chip in with 5 sacks.
29. Arizona Cardinals: Reggie Ragland, LB Alabama
The Cardinals would love to know what Daryl Washington’s status is, as would Daryl Washington. But since he reportedly keeps flunking drug tests while on suspension, he probably won’t be playing in the NFL every again. The Cards have adjusting their defense to go with a 3-3-1-4 look with Deone Bucannon in a flex linebacker/safety role.
Ragland is another prospect I’m personally not a fan of. He can attack downhill and tackles extremely well. But it’s pretty obvious from the tape that Ragland struggles if you ask him to cover in space and run sideline to sideline. Unless he can fix this, it’s going to be hard for him to be anything other a run stopper. And maybe teams are going to draft him knowing this.
30. Carolina Panthers: Cody Whitehair, OL Kansas State
Who knows if the Panthers will absorb the lessons learned from their Super bowl and fix their offensive line. It’s possible that Gettleman will just ignore it and think that ignoring needs for sheer talent is what got them to the Super bowl. It’s possible he’s right about that. In this scenario, he decides to fix their offensive line because of the super bowl.
Whitehair could be a poorer man’s Zach Martin. He’s a college tackle who will slide inside to guard and he has an amazing ability to box up a defender and take him out of the play. The big flaw in his game is that he gets called for a lot of penalties.
31. Washington Redskins(from Denver): Ryan Kelly, OL Alabama
The Redskins badly need defensive help, especially on the line. They also have to realize that they can’t build Rome in a day here. It’s very doubtful that they can find 2-3 good starters for the line with some combination of moves in the draft, free agency and trades between now and July.
They do need help at Center and Kelly can start for them day 1. If the defense in DC is going to be bad, then they’ll need their offense to hit 29-30 points per game and they can’t do that if Cousins if getting rushed up the middle constantly.