Is Jaylon Smith Worth the Risk?

Jaylon Smith had it all.

The 3-year starting linebacker for Notre Dame was ready to embark on his journey to the NFL as a surefire top 5 pick. Smith had just one final farewell game with the Fighting Irish before his hopeful professional career began. And that’s when everything went wrong.

In the 2016 Fiesta Bowl Jaylon Smith suffered a sever knee injury and after many conflicting reports and hopeful speculations, it has been revealed that he would miss at least the entire first season of his NFL career. Nonetheless, Smith chose to forgo his final year of eligibility at the college level and has declared for the NFL draft that he was once destined to highlight.

While a medical re-evaluation still may take place, it seems unlikely that there will be substantially different results. Yet anyone who has seen the Notre Dame star knows that if he can get healthy he has perhaps the highest ceiling among linebackers in this class. This leaves NFL war rooms and fanatics alike wondering: is Jaylon Smith worth the risk?

First let’s look at where he stacks up against the competition, injury aside. Myles Jack out of UCLA has become the new top linebacker, drawing impressive comparisons to Ray Lewis. Jack’s freak athleticism and feel for the game would have put him in the conversation with Smith regardless of injury and will be a top 10 pick in this draft. Another top prospect at the position is Alabama’s Reggie Ragland, a hard-hitting inside linebacker that could go in the mid to late first round. The other first round talent linebacker is Darron Lee out of Ohio State, a quality all round backer who has benefited the most from Smith’s injury as he could go late first round to early second round. These three guys should all push Smith down because of their impressive upside and ability to contribute from day one.

Next, let’s look at the market for a player like Smith. Teams that need linebackers right away like the New Orleans Saints and New York Giants probably will take one of the aforementioned players who will be ready for this season. The teams that takes the former number 2 overall prospect will have to be one willing to wait for the benefits. Look for the risky pick to come from a team like the New England Patriots who have the ability to wait a year and could use the insurance should they lose Jamie Collins or Dont’a Hightower in free agency this year. Another team that might be interested would be the Oakland Raiders who shored up their team in free agency and over the past two seasons have nailed risky second round draft picks. Bill Belichick and Reggie McKenzie are the draft gurus I can see taking the smart risk on this potential stud, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a team like the Minnesota Vikings added Smith to an already promising young linebacker core.

All told, Jaylon Smith is just too good for no one to take the risk on him. It seems unlikely that he’ll still be a first round pick given that he’ll miss the whole 2016 season, but his outstanding athleticism and versatility won’t keep him from going pro. The second round may be a stretch for a guy with an injury of this caliber, but I would be surprised if he slipped to the 3rd day of the draft. Hopefully the Notre Dame star can get healthy soon because this kid can hit the ground running, if he can only get onto the field.