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2016 Quarterbacks: Value vs Draft Position

By Benjy Kling

Nov 28, 2015; East Lansing, MI, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Christian Hackenberg (14) points to Michigan State Spartans defense during the 2nd half of a game at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 28, 2015; East Lansing, MI, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Christian Hackenberg (14) points to Michigan State Spartans defense during the 2nd half of a game at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports /
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The 2016 quarterback draft class honestly isn’t a particularly promising one. Even so, there is a big need for field generals around the league and we could see some of these guys picked well before their real value.

With the NFL Draft fast approaching and teams like the Rams and Eagles paying nothing short of a king’s ransom for the opportunity to take the best of these generally mediocre quarterbacks, the line between worthy of being drafted and not has become a bit fuzzy.

Here are the 8 guys worth taking in the draft and how their value compares to where they’ll likely be picked:

  1. Jared Goff, California: Goff is the almost definite first overall pick from the Rams. He’s a pretty solid QB who can play day one, but he’s pretty small for an NFL pocket passer and honestly I don’t think he’d be a top 5 pick in most draft classes. That being said there’s a big need for quarterbacks in the league and not a ton of promising talent to fill the gap, so Goff is definitely the best option given the situation.
    • Value: Top 10 pick
    • Likely Draft Spot: First Overall
  2. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State: Wentz has risen up big boards since the end of the season to even be involved in the first overall conversation. He’s a strong armed big framed ideal pocket passer who looks great in 7 on 7 workouts, but he has some serious problems dealing with pass rushes and taking hits. Even so, he’s coming from a pro-style offense in NDS and will have a chance t develop should he be taken second overall by the Eagles.
    • Value: Mid First Round
    • Likely Draft Spot: Second Overall
  3. Paxton Lynch, Memphis: Before the rise of Wentz, the conversation for best QB in the class was Goff vs Lynch and the Memphis product is still a great option given the need around the league for a field general. Lynch is a strong pocket passer with a big frame combined with athleticism and an impressive ability to move around the pocket. The downside for him comes from his accuracy, often throwing wobbly balls and misplacing passes downfield. He also missed half of his senior year with a knee injury.
    • Value: Late First Round
    • Likely Draft Spot: Mid First Round
  4. Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: Hackenberg is a guy who looks great on paper but had trouble translating that to success on the field. He has perhaps the strongest arm in the draft, but often made bad choices under pressure. There are also off field concerns because he hasn’t hesitated to blame his coaching staff for his lack of success. While that very well may be true, teams may want to avoid players that make divides within a team like Hackenberg did with the Nittany Lions.
    • Value: Mid to Late Second Round
    • Likely Draft Spot: Early to Mid Second Round
  5. Dak Prescott, Miss State: Prescott has been one of my favorite players throughout this process, watching him in MVP performances in the Belk Bowl and Senior Bowl has showed he really could succeed in the NFL. He’s extremely mobile and could do very well in many of the modern QB roles that guys like Russell Wilson and Cam Newton have paved the way for. His downside comes from his inconsistent accuracy and the fact that he doesn’t come from a pro-style offense. He is a great leader in the locker room, but he fell in draft status after a DUI following the combine.
    • Value: Late Second Round
    • Likely Draft Spot: Early to Mid Third Round
  6. Connor Cook, Mich State: Cook is a clean prospect all around; he was a 4 year starter who improved throughout his collegiate career. He leaves MSU with many of its records under his belt after running the system with confidence and heart throughout his career.  The problem is that he just isn’t as talented as other signal callers in this year’s draft, with major questions in his accuracy, decision making, and general mechanics. He has been playing efficiently in college, but his ability to do so in the pros is questionable.
    • Value: Fourth Round
    • Likely Draft Spot: Third Round
  7. Cody Kessler, USC: There’s a significant drop off after the first 6 guys taken. Kessler put up some good numbers for USC, but fundamentally doesn’t have the tools to succeed in the NFL. That being said, he has a pretty good football IQ that has gotten him this far and he has tools enough to be a solid backup at the next level, just don’t expect to see him leading a team any time soon.
    • Value: Sixth Round
    • Likely Draft Spot: Fifth Round
  8. Brandon Allen, Arkansas: Heading into the season, Allen wasn’t on anyone’s radar at all. Solid play in his senior year, however, has made Allen a good candidate for a backup job in the NFL. He developed as a leader on and off the field throughout his three years as the starter for the Razorbacks, but still has major questions in his decision making, accuracy, and arm strength. He’s also pretty small for an NFL quarterback.
    • Value: Seventh Round
    • Likely Draft Spot: Sixth Round

Guys like Nate Sudfeld of Indiana, Jacoby Brisset of NC State, and Cardale Jones of Ohio State could still be taken with a late seventh round pick from a particularly needy team, but everyone outside of these 8 should really go undrafted. The 2016 draft class doesn’t look to be a great one, but there is still plenty of talent to work with.

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