2016 NFL draft: Fox’s Final Mock Draft

And we’re reached the end. My final mock NFL draft for the 2016 NFL draft cycle. This isn’t just something that I’ll walk away from.

After the draft, I’ll be comparing my mock to the mocks of some of my fellow bloggers here at With the First Pick, fans who submitted a mock draft and the “experts.” Without any further ado here’s how I see the 2016 NFL Draft playing out:

1. Los Angeles Rams(from Tennessee): Jared Goff, Qb California
2. Philadelphia Eagles(from Cleveland): Carson Wentz, QB North Dakota State

Both teams made deals up for reasons that seem spurious at best. The Rams’ leadership is probably in a sink or swim situation in 2016: if they don’t show any progress or hope, both the coach and GM are probably fired. The Eagles..well that’s harder to figure out. They shelled out a decent amount of cash for Bradford and Daniel..only to undermine them both?

And what doesn’t make much sense is that neither Goff or Wentz look like blue chip level prospects. Both have major limitations and drafting them seems more like long term moves at best.

3. San Diego Chargers: Jalen Ramsey, DB Florida State
They should take Tunsil. The problem is that they’re already committed a ton to both Dunlap and Barksdale to play OT for them. So, they’re down to Ramsey or Bosa. Bosa probably wouldn’t be as good a fit for their defense and they just lost Eric Weddle to free agency. Also, they don’t have as much talent at safety as they do at End and Edge rusher, so Ramsey is a no brainer for them.

4. Dallas Cowboys: Joey Bosa, DL Ohio State
Before the Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory suspensions, this pick could have been Ramsey or Zeke Elliot. But with them out for varying amounts of time, it seems far more likely that the Cowboys take Bosa instead of a best player available pick.

Even with Lawrence and Gregory back, Bosa fits the Boys’ drafting style far more: a quality player at a position of need regardless of perceived value. He can start at End for them tomorrow, instantly gives them real depth and should be a better fit in their tampa-2 defense.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Laremy Tunsil, OL Ole Miss
The Jags are hedging on Joeckel’s 5th year option so they’re curious if Tunsil makes it here or that they get a chance on Shon Coleman in rounds 2 or 3. If Tunsil is here, the smart move is to take him and figure out what to do with Joeckel. He’s a young tackle with some trade value so perhaps they can use him to move back into the 1st round for a free safety.

6. Baltimore Ravens: Ronnie Stanley, OL Notre Dame
Jack and Buckner are hard for the Ravens to pass on because they’re moving to a more formal 4-3 look with their defense. However, if they can’t protect Flacco(whom they just unwisely gave an extension to), it will be hard for them to repeat their recent success.

I’m not sold on Stanley. He has great quickness for a tackle but he needs good coaching to work out his flaws. That said: he’ll probably be better than Eugene Monroe and the Ravens could use that.

7. San Francisco 49ers: Myles Jack, LB UCLA
They can’t pass on Jack. With the drain of talent on their defense, they’ve seen their defense go from #3 to #10 to #18 in points given up from 2013-2015. Losing Fangio didn’t help at all, but the regression started with him at the helm in 2014. They lost way too much talent and have done little to replace it.

Jack might have a medical red flag but for the 49ers, it’s worth the risk. The heart of their 3-4 defense, if new defensive boss Jim O’Neil sticks with his Rex Ryan defensive roots, will be the inside linebackers. And right now they have Navarro Bowman and not much else. Jack plays the joker linebacker spot(playing deeper) and roams.

8. Cleveland Browns(from Miami via Philadelphia): DeForest Buckner, DL Oregon

Everything is coming up Milhouse for the Browns in this draft. They got a big load of extra picks and got a blue chip defense prospect to start to rebuild their defense around. Buckner gives Ray Horton the cornerstone defensive lineman that he can build around. Danny Shelton was very inconsistent for the Browns and might not the best fit in a 2 gap system. Buckner isn’t a penetrator so having him and his massive wingspan clogging up gaps is using him best.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sheldon Rankins, DL Louisville
So why Rankins over Billings, Lawson or someone else? On schematic fit, Rankins makes far more sense. Buckner is almost certainly a 3 tackle in the NFL and the Bucs already have one of the best at that position in Gerald McCoy. Rankins can play the 1 better than Billings and penetrate more consistently.

One rumor I don’t believe is that the Bucs would consider Jack Conklin here. They do need a left tackle and if Stanley or Tunsil drop this far, they would probably take one of them.

10. New York Giants: Ezekiel Elliott, RB Ohio State
Another rumor I don’t believe(although it’s possible) is that the Giants are sold on Leonard Floyd. He’s certainly a high potential guy, but that’s not Reese’s drafting style. He doesn’t want “high potential” he wants “best player.”

And if we’re talking “highest potential” then Josh Doctson would be going ahead of Floyd, who doesn’t have a real position in the Giants’ 4-3 defense. Elliott would be the best player available here in this mock draft and fills a major need for the Giants: an every down running back.

So, why does Elliott last this long? Look at the 2017 running back class: Fournette, McCaffrery, Connor, Clement, Chubb, Cook, Gallman, Perine and Jalen Hurd. Wow.

11. Chicago Bears: Shaq Lawson, DE/EDGE Clemson
There’s been persistent and steady chatter that the Bears are in love with Shaq Lawson. And rightfully so: he’s a better fit for that down linebacker spot in the Fangio defense than Houston or McPhee. McPhee is best used roaming up and down the formation so he can pick his spots. But Fangio needs a 4th dedicated attacker on the line so that the blocking stays honest.

Fangio’s defense excelled when Aldon Smith filled this role and kept up a constant pressure on the defensive backfield. I don’t think that Lawson could be Aldon Smith 2, but he should be better in this role than Houston was in 2015.

12. New Orleans Saints: William Jackson III, DB Houston
I had the Saints going with the best defensive lineman left in this mock draft…that is until the Josh Norman sweepstakes. They made a late, hard push for him until he agreed to terms with the Redskins. And this push even included Drew Brees giving back enough money to make the deal happen.

There’s only one reason that the franchise would consider this: they consider corner a major area to address. Jackson gets the nod over Hargreaves because he has the length than Allen likes to see in his corners. He likes them able to press their wideouts and Jackson should be able to do that better than Hargreaves(or Josh Norman, who’s pretty bad at that).

13. Miami Dolphins(from Philadelphia): Vernon Hargreaves III, DB Florida
The Dolphins are probably secretly hoping that Elliott drops this far. Or at least to 11 so that they can cheaply deal up for him. Absent that, corner makes the most sense for them.

Hargreaves will struggle against size. It’s possible he’s coached up to play like Janoris Jenkins where he tries to use his quickness against bigger wideouts to deny the ball to them, but Hargreaves has such great natural coverage skills that it’s amazing that he’s not a top 7 pick.

14. Oakland Raiders:  Andrew Billings, DL Baylor
The Raiders took some big steps in fixing their secondary and linebacker problems in free agency. And they might have solidified their offensive line in signing Osemele. Their defensive line needs reinforcement. They have Mack and Dan Williams. Mario Edwards has some potential. But outside of that, they have a lot of backups and question marks.

Billings is a young kid still growing into his role. But with Williams probably more effective at the 2 instead of the 3 or 0(where he had been playing for them), Billings could start at the 0 or 1 for them and make everyone more effective.

15. Tennessee Titans(from Los Angeles): Taylor Decker, OL Ohio State
The Titans are probably the most likely team to deal up in the first round. They need a lot of things, so this is a best player available pick. I personally have Decker ahead of Stanley and Tunsil. He’s just a safer pick in my opinion even if he’s probably a right tackle in the NFL.

16. Detroit Lions: Josh Doctson, WR TCU
The Lions’ GM is trying to pull a magic act where he’s openly mentioning big names in the hopes of confusing the rest of the league about who he wants. It’s pretty simple: he needs an X wideout, a real left tackle and a penetrating defensive tackle to pair with Ngata.

Doctson is a bit of an enigma. He has an amazing catch radius for a slightly built speed based wideout but his intangibles need work. He’d be perfect for the turf in the Motor city: he’s at his best when he’s burning down the field trying to locate a high thrown ball.

17. Atlanta Falcons: Darron Lee, LB Ohio State
This is a sheer best player available pick. With the return of Weatherspoon, Will linebacker isn’t a need for them. But with Weatherspoon bulked up to 240+ lbs, he could slide over and play the strongside for Quinn while Lee and his speed man the Will. Another potential idea is have one of those two play the Mike linebacker spot and the other at the Will.

18. Indianapolis Colts: Karl Joseph, DB WVU
There’s a lot of noise out there that Joseph doesn’t make it past the Colts. This is very plausible. Mike Adams has been a warrior for the Colts, but he’s 35. And they don’t have much at free safety. Joseph could be the Colts’ Eric Reid: a strong/free safety tweener who is asked to ballhawk and hit. In that defense, that could be quite effective.

19. Buffalo Bills: Paxton Lynch, QB Memphis
The Bills clearly aren’t sold on Tyrod Taylor and perhaps they use him as trade bait to try and move up in the draft for a quarterback. However, Lynch needs some time, so Taylor starts for 2016 and then Lynch takes over in 2017.

20. New York Jets: Emmanuel Ogbah, DL Oklahoma State
The Jets would love it if Paxton Lynch or Taylor Decker fell down here. And they will dangle Mo Wilkerson as bait to try and move up to fill their quarterback or right tackle needs. If they find any takers is another question. Stuck here, they look for defensive edge help. Ogbah has some flaws, but his physical tools are undeniable. He replaces Coples, who was sent packing last season.

One thing that seems very doubtful is the Jets reaching for someone like Connor Cook or Christian Hackenberg. They don’t need another raw, development quarterback who needs time. They already have that. They need a ready made passer.

21. Washington Redskins: Ryan Kelly, OL Alabama
After signing Josh Norman, the Redskins need to take into consideration cap issues when making this pick. They nominally have 50 million in cap room in 2017, but that’s without Jordan Reed, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Kirk Cousins under contract. Kory Lichtensteiger is overpaid as their starting center and wasn’t really missed when he missed a lot of the 2015 season. Replacing him saved them valuable cap room and improves the team. Kelly didn’t give up a sack during his last two years at Bama and is as pro ready as they get.

22. Houston Texans: Chris Jones, DL Miss State
The Texans are being linked to a lot of offensive prospects. I’m not trying to be contradictory but I more buy a defensive end to help Watt out. Watt wore down towards the end of 2015 thanks to a number of injuries that he fought through. Part of this is that Watt couldn’t take any time off because they didn’t have enough talent on the line to rotate Watt without seeing a major drop off in play.

Jones is a pretty ready to play made prospect at the 5 and 3 spots. He’s not good enough to allow Watt to take a lot of time off, but he is good enough to push the other potential starters at End(5/3) onto the bench so that they can be depth.

23. Minnesota Vikings: Laquon Treadwell, WR Ole Miss
Treadwell’s fall stops here. The Vikings’ need for a big chain moving flanker over anything else(for now) means that they’ll put up with Treadwell’s limitations at the position.

I still have Treadwell as the 3rd or 4th wideout in this class. But in the role that the Vikes would use him for, he could be a Dwayne Bowe type wideout: not a deep threat but should give them 65-85 catches a season.

 24. Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Thomas, WR Ohio State
The Bengals love their wideouts with giant catch radiuses and don’t mind if they have to sit for a couple seasons and learn. Thomas fits this bill but he’s probably more pro ready than people think. He has good footwork as well. I just question is hands: for a guy who’s game needs to be a ball magnet on those slants and outs, his hands just aren’t up to that task.

25. Pittsburgh Steelers: Su’a Cravens, S/OLB Southern Cal.
This is probably high for Cravens. Keanu Neal *might* represent more value, but the attacking strong safety tweener who can hit as well as tackle is one that has proven value in the Steelers’ 3-4 defense. And the Steelers haven’t shied away from going for fit over value.

26. Seattle Seahawks: Jack Conklin, OL Mich State
Conklin is another player whose perceived “rise” into the top half of the draft mystifies me. He’s slow and heavy footed, gets grabby when beat and needs a lot of work in his footwork. The flip side of this is that he’s very powerful for an offensive tackle. When Michigan State played Oregon, when DeForest Buckner wasn’t slipping by Conklin-Conklin was flattening him. In this we have a perfect microcosm of Conklin as a prospect: if he can get his hands on a defender, he wins. If not, he struggles.

27. Green Bay Packers: Jarran Reed, DL Alabama
Teams have to understand that with Reed, they’re getting a two down lineman who could be stout against the run but give them almost nothing as a pass rusher(16 quarterback pressures at Alabama). He could be very effective in a 2 gap system which the Packers run quite often. That said, he could be an elite run stopper.

28. Kansas City Chiefs: Leonard Floyd, EDGE UGA
The other possibility is that the Chiefs take an offensive tackle here. They’re stalling on Eric Fisher’s 5th year option and that might be because they have a tackle prospect in mind here or in the 2nd round. Absent that, they have a situation where they have no idea how many games Justin Houston will play for them. And they have no idea how effective Tamba Hali and Dee Ford will be at outside linebacker for them. Floyd, like Ford, is a raw SEC edge defender who needs time. But the sheer athleticism can’t be passed on, at least by Andy Reid.

29. Arizona Cardinals: Reggie Ragland, LB Alabama
The Cards are all in on one last run with their core group. So this pick either is a deep investment prospect(one who will take many seasons before he’s ready) or a ready made starter for them. Ragland is the latter. He’s a 2 down linebacker who struggles in space but they have the safeties to take those duties from him.

30. Carolina Panthers: MacKenzie Alexander, DB Clemson
Even before Norman left the franchise, the Panthers were sniffing around corners. They brought Alexander in for a private visit and he looks like a similar style of corner than what Norman was: a zone gambler who has great ball skills. He also would be the best player available for them here, so two birds one stone.

31. Denver Broncos: Robert Nkedmiche, DL Ole Miss
The current in vogue mock draft pick for the Broncos is Connor Cook or another lower tier quarterback prospect. I don’t believe this because the trade talks for Kaepernick aren’t dead yet. They might be in a coma or on the back burner, but with so many holes on their roster it’s just implausible that they would close this door without making it very obvious.

Operating on that assumption, this pick for them has to be-and I hate to use this cliche-a difference maker. Nkedmiche has a lot of flaws, but it’s hard to find a better penetrator at the 3-4 DE or 4-3 DT spots in this draft. The question for him will his off the field issues and lack of effort at times be his undoing. And that’s why he dropped this far down.