NFL Draft: 9 Bold Predictions

With us at the cusp of the NFL draft, I’m going to make 9 Bold predictions for it.

1-There will be more trades in the 2nd round than in the 1st.
There’s almost total agreement that the talent in this draft is in the top 5, then from 28-60. This isn’t to say that there won’t be trades in the first round but there’s virtual certainty that talented prospects will be available in the 2nd round and that always creates a feeding frenzy.

This frenzy will get even wilder if and when some perceived 1st round talents are available in the mid 1st. Then you’ll see teams whipping out future firsts to get their prospects now. The real frenzy could be for quarterbacks. Teams who passed on guys like Connor Cook and Christian Hackenberg in the first round, or were picking high in the first round will be itching to make a move if they drop into the middle of the 2nd.

2-With very few exceptions, all the “rumors” and “reports’ you hear this week are complete disinformation.
It would take the proverbial infinite number of monkeys typing away on an infinite number of keyboards to keep up and address all the ridiculous reports and rumors floating around now. And they’re so contradictory that it’s almost comical. But sadly even teams fall for them.

The quickest way to tell a good report from a bad rumor is to apply a simple standard to each one: does it make any sense.

3-Derrick Henry will go a lot lower than people think and might be the 4th running back taken.
I really like Derrick Henry. He has a Chris Warren vibe to me and some team might get a very good rotational running back to team with a 1 cut or scat back in a backfield. The league seems aggressively uninterested in him after Eddie Lacy and Trent Richardson’s issues. In fact, there seems to be more interest in his teammate Kenyon Drake than in the Heisman Trophy winner.

Right now, it’s a lock that Elliott goes ahead of him. And if I was a betting man, I’d throw down a Harriet Tubman on Kenneth Dixon and Devontae Booker getting drafted ahead of him.

4-Corey Coleman will be the 5th wide receiver taken
Coleman is a rare split end burner in a WR class that’s full of bigger flankers. But he’ll be compared to Josh Doctson come draft day and Coleman’s receiving skills and speed just won’t surpass Doctson unless one team falls in love with him.

The argument for Coleman basically is: he’s fast and tracks the ball well. But the history of the draft is littered with undersized burner wideouts with bad route running skills (like Coleman) who were busts.

5-Vernon Hargeaves III will drop out of the top 10, Myles Jack won’t.
There were whispers that Vh3 failed drug test at the combine, but those turned out to be completely false. And now there’s whispers of Myles Jack being a player who’s physical spent before his rookie contract expires. Who are pushing these stories, one of which turned out to be completely false and the other being so vague as to be almost impossible to believe? Teams who want them to drop to them.

It’ll work on Vh3 because he has other flaws as a prospect, so teams will just drop him a bit on their boards and some team picking in the teens will get themselves a good prospect. As for Jack, it’s hard to see him dropping that far. He looks healthy enough to play week 1 and teams will take that kind of risk for his jaw dropping athletic tools.

6-Quarterbacks will be overdrafted, but there will be only 3 taken in the 1st round.

There’s been never ending rumors about Connor Cook and Christian Hackenberg going in the 1st round. Coming this late in the draft process, it’s hard to believe honestly. Teams start making their boards about 2 weeks from the draft, if not earlier. And it’s not like these prospects(or any prospects) have something new to give the teams to make the case to them.

So what’s going on with these rumors? Much like all rumors this late in the process, teams are trying to game the system and get the guys that they really want to drop. Personally, I would read these rumors as who wants Paxton Lynch but wants the asking price to move up for him to come down.

7-Kevin Hogan and Dak Prescott will go a lot higher than people think.
The quarterback class is quite lacking in pro style passers. Hogan played in a pro style offense at Stanford and Prescott made an effort to stay in the pocket more for the Bulldogs in 2015. The consensus among draftniks is that both are late day 3 picks.

I would bet money that both go in the 4th round at the latest. Developmental quarterbacks who had some arm talent will always go much higher than draftniks think. Teams crave prospects like this always looking for the next Tom Brady.

8-Connor McGovern and Germain Ifedi will be top 60 picks

And they both might be top 40 picks with Ifedi possibly going sometime in the late 1st round. Both of them are highly talked about outside of the professional drafting world. And both have the look of classic Seattle Seahawks’ system linemen: powerful, mean, nasty and in need of work on their footwork.

With the spreading of Carroll-era Seahawks coaches, you’re going to see their blueprints used more and more. Expect a surprising amount of demand for both players.

9-Both Jaylon Smith and Shawn Oakman will get drafted on Day 3.
Shawn Oakman is facing a sexual assault charge, so he’s more likely to go completely undrafted, but as long as he’s not in jail the NFL will always prioritize talent and potential over a bad headline. Winning makes too many people forget about a bad headline.

As for Smith, teams are going to be playing chicken with themselves. If Smith makes it through the first 3 rounds of the draft undrafted, there is a possibility that Smith could not sign with any team and go into the draft in 2017 when he could be healthier. This almost certainly won’t stop a team from using a late round pick on him hoping that they can talk him into a redshirt year under their care.