NFL Combine: Do 40-yard times translate to success?

If you’re anything like me, you’ve spent the past weekend glued to your television (or laptop or phone) in a daze watching as the so-called Underwear Olympics unfold. After three weeks of nothingness, the NFL Combine is our first ray of sunshine in the largely dim offseason, as well as the unofficial start of draft season.

Although the draft nicks will go on and on about how the drills are meant to “affirm what they saw on tape”, players are inevitably vaulted up boards for what they do in shorts. In 2015, Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett became first round picks on the merits of blazing 40’s. Regardless of best intentions and clichés, these numbers do affect draft stock.

But do they matter?

I’m not talking about the soon-to-be viral 4.2x whatever prospect runs, but rather do fast 40 times translate to above average success?

Obviously for some positions that answer is an immediate and resounding “no”. I think we’ve all seen the desperately graceless video of Tom Brady enough times to know that.

At the positions where speed is at a premium, is it worth it to make large judgements based on these numbers?

Like it or not, many teams do have minimum “cutoffs” for combine performance.

I decided to investigate if players who run better than average 40 times at running back, receiver, and corner have markedly better careers than their slower counterparts. Since teams need about three years to evaluate a draft pick, I chose to look at the 2009-2013 draft classes for this study.

I decided against including pro days numbers because the lack of reliability in comparative value. Similarly, I also chose to ignore Pro Bowl selections at special teams, as that does not suggest value at their given position. I based success on the number of games started and Pro Bowl appearances.

Running Backs

Critics will often lament how rarely a back breaks free for 40 yards in a real NFL game. This isn’t entirely true. While lateral agility, vision, and change of direction are all invaluable weapons in their arsenal, speed is still king. In today’s game, tailbacks need to outrun linebackers to the sideline and create separation running routes down the field. As such, one would imagine that the speedier tailbacks enjoy more fruitful careers.

Over the five-year period, 145 running backs ran a 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. The average performance was a 4.58. For five whole years, only six running backs recorded a sub 4.40 clocking.

During that span, 28 backs ran below 4.50. Of that group, only four players (Lamar Miller, Demarco Murray, C.J. Spiller, and Ryan Mathews), started at least 50 games. Just three of them were selected to a Pro Bowl. Compared to all players during that span, the rate of Pro Bowl selections is remarkably similar (10.7% of fast players and 8.9% of the whole).

When evaluating players named to a Pro Bowl in the last three years, the data shows similar findings. The average 40 time of the 12 unique players selected in that period was 4.50. Besides Arian Foster, every player ran 4.60 or faster. Half of the group ran under 4.50. This suggests that as long as a player possesses at least average speed at running back, they have potential to forge a decorated career.

Cornerbacks

Cornerbacks are often touted as the most athletic players on the football field. At last year’s combine, Bruce Arians gushed about the unique physical demands required at the position. This makes sense.

Corner is an inherently reactionary position. Everything you do is dependent on what the offense does. At receiver, you set the speed. At cornerback, you must adapt to the athletic abilities of whatever offensive player is thrown at you. As a result, this tends to require high end raw talent.

Unsurprisingly, nearly twice as many corners (50) recorded sub 4.50 times as running backs. 14 of these players started at least 50 games and seven received a Pro Bowl nod. That total represents nearly half of the total Pro Bowlers from those draft classes. 14% of the faster athletes were selected to a Pro Bowl compared to 9.1% of the total body. It should be noted that the total group includes the athletes in the sub 4.50 group.

In the past four years, 16 unique athletes were selected to a Pro Bowl. Ten of them ran at the combine. The average time among these players was 4.50, just slower than the positional average of 4.49. Nine of these corners ran below 4.60. Like the running backs, the data suggests that as long as a player’s speed isn’t well below average, they can be successful.

Wide Receivers

In essence, Receivers are the show ponies on the outside; highly paid divas bred to run fast and score touchdowns. The prototypical receiver has a sprinter’s speed to boot with the body control of a ballet dancer. However, we’ve seen that there are many roads to Rome at the position.

There are your Desean Jackson’s, greyhounds who fly down the field and scare safeties off the ball. On the other side of things, you have pitbulls in the Anquan Boldin’s and DeAndre Hopkins’ who just want to out big-man you.

Surprisingly, the results showed a greater correlation than at any other position. Because of the immense number of fast athletes at the position, I had to change to parameters slightly. Over the five years, 40 players ran under 4.45 at the NFL combine. Seven of these players started at least 50 games with five of them appearing in a Pro Bowl.

Those five account for nearly a third of the total Pro Bowlers form that group(16) while sub 4.45 athletes accounted for less than a fifth of the total group. The faster receivers had nearly twice as high a percentage of Pro Bowlers(12.5% to 7.2%).

When looking at the composition of Pro Bowl rosters, I once again had to change the parameters because there is a high amount of continuity on their rosters as well as a striking portion of them who opted out of the NFL Combine. In the six years I looked at, the average mark was 4.45, compared to a positional average of 4.53.

Of the 11 unique players named, no player ran above 4.60. Nine of them posted a time under 4.50, with 7 under 4.45. This suggests that when looking for a high end talent on the outside, speed should be a major part of the equation.

So, yeah John Ross, you can exhale now.