In a class devoid of star power at the top, Deshaun Watson is the most polarizing player in the draft.
In a lot of ways, the case of Watson is instructive. For the most part, fans love him. They watch him on Saturdays, look at the production at a big time school, and most importantly see him come up big in the clutch. With all of that in mind, they wonder why he isn’t a slam dunk top pick and lament those who doubt him.
Analysts have been more hesitant to jump in feet first with the Clemson star. There isn’t a consensus top passer in the class. They criticize his abilities as a passer and question how smoothly he will be able to transition to the pro level. Even with a number of quarterback-needy teams at the top of the draft, many continue to mock him much further down the board.
The case of Watson is instructive. There is a difference between how scouts and fans view the game. The thing most fans fail to understand is that college production isn’t predictive. For a number of reasons ranging from the caliber of athletes to the coaching to even the distance between the hash marks, the college and pro games reward different skillsets, particularly at the quarterback position. While fans can see a player play and succeed at the college level, scouts try to decipher the traits in their skillset to determine if they can play at the next level.
So let’s look specifically at what Watson offers and what that means.
Tale Of The Tape
Watson is a smooth, rhythm based passer with clean feet, a quick setup and release. Think Alex Smith or Marcus Mariota. He excels of slants, crossers, quick outs, comebacks, and back shoulder throws. He operates in a spread offense exclusively out of the gun. Watson throws a catchable ball and has enough arm strength to deliver the ball to all three levels of the field with zip. His problems with deep accuracy have been well documented already.
He’s made a name for himself as an electric athlete in the open field. He’s a slippery runner with outstanding lateral movement and agility. It seems like the volume of everything is turned up when he’s in the open field.
Watson is incredibly calm and poised. He’ll stand in the pocket and deliver the ball with bodies around him, but also has a good sense of when it’s time to get out and break down the play.
He operates exclusively from the gun in a spread attack. You don’t really see him going through reads and surveying the field often. Field vision can be a problem for him. He doesn’t use the middle of the field, which has been a problem for guys like Tyrod Taylor. He’ll often miss a free defender breaking on the ball, which can result in careless turnovers.
The Spread Transition
This is all fine. Plenty of guys have come into the league without a background in a pro-style offense and grown into traditional pocket passers on the fly. We’ve seen Tennessee give Mariota a foundation in run-pass options and traditional spread concepts and watch him blossom into one of the league’s bright young passers in the past two years. In Seattle, Russell Wilson grew from a manager with plus athleticism to one of the leagues better pocket passers.
However, we’ve also seen guys like Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III take the league by storm with their dynamic athleticism but then fizzle out because they could never play from the pocket.
The reality is that there aren’t pro-style quarterbacks coming out of college anymore. In the past six years, the only top tier prospects who came from those types of systems are Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, and Carson Wentz. That’s it. Some guys like Cody Kessler have the same type of background but lack the physical tools to start in the league.
Everybody is a projection now. It’s scary to take a guy in the top five now because you are betting your job on their ability to become the finished product that they aren’t yet. In some cases, like Derek Carr, it works out. At the same time, we’ve seen the Blake Bortles’ of the world fail to grow into respectable starters.
A Plan In Mind
Teams who buy into Watson need to come with a plan. There needs to be both surrounding talent in place as well as a plan to ease him into the next level while keeping some of the concepts that he was familiar with in college. Based on his tape, he seems to project well in a West Coast offense with built-in read option concepts. He’s not going to be an Andrew Luck-esque immediate franchise savior. He’s not going to elevate the talent around him at this stage. There needs to be a plan in place where he can be a passenger in the offense and grow into a premier player.
The concern here is that he is that he might not be quite steady enough to thrive in a game manager type role. The Chiefs have gotten to the Divisional Round in consecutive years while asking remarkably little of Alex Smith. To Smith’s credit, however, he limits mistakes and gets the ball where it needs to go on schedule.
Watson might not be able to do that at this stage. His accuracy comes and it goes at times. He doesn’t see the field well consistently. In the past two seasons, he’s thrown 30 interceptions. That won’t fly at the pro level.
Closing Thoughts
I’d hate to see Watson go in the top ten. While his ability to elevate his game in key moments is undeniable, his best chance at developing into a starting caliber quarterback would be going to a place with a plan where he can either sit and develop or act as a distributor. I think he’d fit well with the Browns (if he waits a year or so), Chiefs, Dolphins, Giants, or Texans. Whoever takes him needs to have a plan in place to allow him to blossom.