Analytics mock draft produces head-scratching pick for 49ers

The role analytics plays in the NFL has exploded in recent years. Outlets like Pro Football Focus, for example, have revolutionized how we view the game, its players and the performances on the field. But sometimes, analytics junkies need to stay in their lane.

Mock drafts are no place for analytics.

NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund published her analytics-based mock draft Thursday and boy did it have a doozie.

At No. 2 overall, Frelund mocked Georgia CB DeAndre Baker to the 49ers, a pick that has about as much of a chance as Nick Bosa has falling out of the top five picks. By the way, Bosa comes off the board third overall to the Jets; yes, he’s selected after Baker.

Frelund did provide a bit of a disclaimer in her logic.

"I am going to guess people will be a little shocked by a corner being drafted second overall, but hear me out. The acquisitions of veterans Dee Ford and Kwon Alexanderchanged the Niners’ potential up front. Adding Baker means realizing the NFL-level value of a player who showed at Georgia he could be effective in multiple schemes, possesses elite game-measured speed and, according to PFF, only allowed 10 first downs (and no touchdowns) last season. Baker’s projected NFL contribution creates the kind of front-back defensive balance that has proven to be most correlated to wins."

Sorry, not buying it.

There are several reasons why this is just, well, bad. First, Baker isn’t the best cornerback in this class. That distinction, while still not completely settled, has come down to LSU’s Greedy Williams and Washington’s Byron Murphy. It’s unclear how Baker would leapfrog both of them and head to San Francisco. Second, none of the cornerbacks in this year’s class are worthy of a top-10 pick, let alone the second pick overall They aren’t blue-chip prospects and while the position’s value is traditionally pushed up the board, it won’t happen in 2019. Lastly, assuming the 49ers are going to target a player like Baker in Round 1, there’s no way they’d do it without first trading down.

Yes, Frelund did back herself into a corner and say she wasn’t going to allow any trades for her mock draft, but this result at No.2 tarnishes an otherwise unremarkable mock.