Did the Lions make a mistake drafting T.J. Hockenson in 1st round?

The NFL Draft is an inexact science of talent acquisition, but the best teams generally spend high picks on positions where it’s hard to find high-level starters. Tight end isn’t one of them.

It’s an undisputed truth that the NFL Draft provides teams with their best opportunity to build championship-caliber rosters. Whether it’s by hitting on first-round blue-chip prospects or finding a Hall-of-Fame quarterback in the sixth round, the draft is structured in a way that gives all 32 clubs hope for a better tomorrow.

But the best teams use the draft the right way. They use the early rounds to add talent at positions of value like quarterback, offensive tackle, pass rusher or cornerback. Good players at those positions are really hard to find, and using first-round capital on them is never a bad decision.

Other positions like running back, wide receiver and interior offensive line generally have a deeper annual talent pool and starters can be found on the second and third days.

Another position that fits that description is tight end, where recent first-round picks haven’t proven worthy of that kind of draft investment. Instead, the league’s best tight ends — George Kittle, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce — have been added outside the top 32.

In 2019, two teams decided to roll the dice on a first-round tight end. The Lions selected T.J. Hockenson at No. 8 overall and the Broncos drafted his college teammate, Noah Fant, at No. 20.

Expectations for Hockenson and Fant are high, and there are plenty of reasons why they should be. Both players profile as pass-catching options for offenses that desperately need seam busters. But here’s the reality of those picks: if they go on to have successful careers, they’ll buck the trend of what the last decade has produced at the position in the first round.

Here are all the tight ends drafted in the top-32 since 2008 (Note: no tight ends were drafted in the first round in 2011, 2012, 2015 and 2016):

2018:

Hayden Hurst (Ravens, No. 25)

2017:

OJ Howard (Buccaneers, No. 19)
Evan Engram (Giants, No. 23)
David Njoku (Browns, No. 29)

2014: 

Eric Ebron (Lions, No. 10)

2013:

Tyler Eifert (Bengals, No. 21)

2010:

Jermaine Gresham (Bengals, No. 21)

2009:

Branden Pettigrew (Lions, No. 20)

2008: 

Dustin Keller (Jets, No. 30)

Ironically, the Lions drafted three of the 11 tight ends selected in the first round over the last 10 years.

This isn’t exactly a Who’s Who list at the position, and it’s fair to assume that every team (except for the 2017 class; it’s too soon to call) would love a draft re-do if given the chance.

Detroit took an especially big gamble this year by using a top-10 pick on a position that hasn’t traditionally provided a return on investment. Players selected as high as Hockenson are expected to become franchise building blocks, and it’s hard imagining a tight end being that guy. Instead, a really good or even elite tight end is more of that final piece to a championship team after the roster has been built through several years of good drafting.

The Lions aren’t there yet. Neither are the Broncos, but the fact they used the 20th pick on Fant makes it at least a bit more palatable.

Hockenson has to develop into a 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown receiver to justify his draft selection. If his career tops out as a solid all-around player who’s respected around the league but isn’t an elite game-changer on offense, he’ll be a bust.

Sure, that’s a harsh statement. But it’s also true.