2020 NFL Draft: Is J.K. Dobbins a 1st-round RB?

Is Ohio State RB J.K. Dobbins a legitimate candidate to be a first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft?

The debate over the value of a running back in today’s NFL continues to rage on, especially with Los Angeles Chargers star Melvin Gordon‘s threatened holdout being met by questions around the league whether he — or any running back for that matter — is worth a long-term, big-money contract.

The theory against paying running backs a big second contract is based largely on the NFL draft; good, quality starters can be found on Days 2 and 3 at a discounted rate.

The running back debate extends beyond veteran contract negotiations; it trickles into the first-round conversation, too. It takes an elite, if not truly special running back prospect to receive a near-universal first-round projection.

And that’s why it’s pretty surprising that Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins is entering the 2019 college season with a first-round grade, according to NFL draft analyst Tony Pauline.

“He’s a nice sized interior ball carrier with the quickness to turn the corner and make multiple defenders miss,” Pauline wrote. “Dobbins is also a terrific pass catcher out of the backfield. He has the makings of a featured runner at the next level.”

Remember: A running back can be graded as a first-round prospect but still end up a Day 2 selection. So the fact Pauline has a first-round grade on Dobbins doesn’t necessarily mean he’s predicting he will be a top-32 pick.

Which, he won’t be.

Dobbins is coming off of back-to-back productive seasons, totaling 2,456 yards and 17 touchdowns (5.8 yards per carry). His 2018 season (1,053 yards) fell short of his ridiculous freshman year (1,403 yards), but he’ll have less competition for carries in 2019. A career-season should be in the cards.

But Dobbins is a tier below the top three running back prospects at this point. Clemson’s Travis Etienne, Georgia’s D’Andre Swift and Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor are all first-round worthy running backs who offer a much more exciting skill set than Dobbins at this point in their development.

This isn’t meant to suggest Dobbins can’t rush himself to the head of the class, but with running back valuation on the decline and three prospects clearly better than him at this point in the process, his best-case-scenario for the 2020 NFL draft will be to hear his name called on Day 2.