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2023 NFL Season: Projecting major passing category leaders

By Lou Scataglia

GLENDALE, AZ - FEBRUARY 12: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs yells against the Philadelphia Eagles after Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium on February 12, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona. The Chiefs defeated the Eagles 38-35. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, AZ - FEBRUARY 12: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs yells against the Philadelphia Eagles after Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium on February 12, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona. The Chiefs defeated the Eagles 38-35. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images) /
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Most of the rosters across the NFL are set. Let’s make some way too early passing category leader predictions for the coming season.  To the surprise of likely no one, the top quarterbacks in the NFL lead the league in the major passing categories in 2022

Patrick Mahomes, who won the NFL MVP award in 2022, lead the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns.  Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passer rating.  Tom Brady led the league in passes completed.

There are also some not so fun categories like Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, who both took 55 sacks last year.  Davis Mills and Dak Prescott led the league with 15 interceptions.

Let’s take a stab at some of the passing category leaders for the 2023 NFL season.

2023 NFL Season: Projecting major passing category leaders

Passing yards: Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes is insane.  He led the next closest QB by over 500 yards in the passing yards statistic in 2022, throwing for 5,250 yards.  He did this without Tyreek Hill and this was the first time he led the league in passing yards, surprisingly.  I think another year with some of the new wide receiver additions will help this passing offense continue to be elite.

Passing touchdowns: Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow was tied for second in the NFL with 35 touchdown passes in 2022, tied with Josh Allen and behind, you guessed it, Patrick Mahomes.  I think Burrow is going to lead the league in 2023 in this category.  He’ll be playing behind an improved offensive line that now features Orlando Brown Jr at left tackle and perhaps Jonah Williams at right tackle, if his trade request never materializes.

If there is any passer in the NFL who can catch Mahomes in some of these categories, it’s Burrow, who I believe is the second best passer in the NFL.

Passer rating: Russell Wilson

This one might catch me some heat, but Russell Wilson has been a hilariously efficient passer for most of his career.  He led the league in passer rating in 2015 with a whopping 110.1 rating, and he’s had a passer rating of at least 100 in seven of his 11 seasons.

I think Wilson may not throw for 35 touchdowns in 2023, but I think the run-first, play-action offense that I anticipate Denver will run with Sean Payton will help Wilson achieve his old, efficient ways.

Just in 2021, Wilson had a 103.1 rating and had a rating of at least 103.1 from 2018-2021.  There is a clear argument here, in my honest opinion.

Interceptions thrown: Josh Allen

One thing about Josh Allen that I cannot get over is that he does tend to make a hilariously silly mistake about once per game.  I think that is partly due to him still having a bit of that raw, gunslinger mentality when he was in college.

Allen threw 14 interceptions in 2022, which was tied for the second most in the NFL.  He also threw for 15 interceptions in 2021.  Throwing nearly 30 picks over the last two seasons is a ton, and I think he’ll lead the league in this category this year.

Times sacked: Kirk Cousins

The Minnesota Vikings did not do much at all to improve their offensive line in 2022, which allowed 46 sacks to Kirk Cousins.  One of the main issues with Cousins as a QB in the modern-day NFL is that he’s a pure pocket passer and can’t really do much with his legs.

He was tied for the second most sacks taken in the NFL behind Justin Fields and Russell Wilson in 2022, and both the Bears and Broncos made significant strides to improve their offensive line.

The Vikings did not do that, so I think Cousins will take this unfortunate honor.

Completion percentage: Mac Jones

Let’s get a bit weird with this one.  I don’t think anyone would expect Mac Jones to lead the NFL in many categories as a whole.  However, in his rookie season, he had a 67.6% completion percentage.  Even in 2022, perhaps the worst year of his football career, Jones still completed 65.2% of his passes, which is still over that 60-62% threshold that franchise QBs need to hit.

I think that Bill O’Brien coming in as the OC will be a huge help for Jones.  At the same time, I do not think Jones is going to be a very prolific passer, and I think BOB will try to reign Jones in to limit his mistakes with some short and intermediate passes.

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