2023 NFL Season: Ceiling and floor predictions for rookie QBs
CJ Stroud, Houston Texans
CJ Stroud was the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and enters into what I believe to be a very underrated situation for his development.
Ceiling: CJ Stroud’s ceiling is flirting with the offensive rookie of the year, in my opinion. He’s going to be playing in a Shanahan-style offense, which has proven to be QB-friendly. I also think he has some underrated weapons in Nico Collins, John Metchie, and Robert Woods. I like the running backs and think the offensive line is solid as well.
Stroud throwing something like 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions feels like a good ceiling to me. The Texans win about seven games in this scenario.
Floor: The floor prediction isn’t so kind. Stroud has been compared to Jared Goff as a QB and I think Stroud could endure a Jared Goff-type situation in his rookie season, throwing for minimal yards, touchdowns, and interceptions, leading to him going to and from the bench in 2023 as Texans endure a tough season.
I think some people can’t get over him being an Ohio State QB, and recent Buckeye quarterbacks not having much success in the NFL.