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2023 NFL Season: Ceiling and floor predictions for rookie QBs

By Lou Scataglia

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MARCH 02: Will Levis of Kentucky poses for a portrait during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium on March 2, 2023 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MARCH 02: Will Levis of Kentucky poses for a portrait during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium on March 2, 2023 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images) /
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – MAY 20: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans poses for a portrait during the NFLPA Rookie Premiere on May 20, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – MAY 20: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans poses for a portrait during the NFLPA Rookie Premiere on May 20, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images) /

2023 NFL Season: Ceiling and floor predictions for rookie QBs

CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

CJ Stroud was the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and enters into what I believe to be a very underrated situation for his development.

Ceiling: CJ Stroud’s ceiling is flirting with the offensive rookie of the year, in my opinion.  He’s going to be playing in a Shanahan-style offense, which has proven to be QB-friendly.  I also think he has some underrated weapons in Nico Collins, John Metchie, and Robert Woods.  I like the running backs and think the offensive line is solid as well.

Stroud throwing something like 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions feels like a good ceiling to me.  The Texans win about seven games in this scenario.

Floor: The floor prediction isn’t so kind.  Stroud has been compared to Jared Goff as a QB and I think Stroud could endure a Jared Goff-type situation in his rookie season, throwing for minimal yards, touchdowns, and interceptions, leading to him going to and from the bench in 2023 as Texans endure a tough season.

I think some people can’t get over him being an Ohio State QB, and recent Buckeye quarterbacks not having much success in the NFL.

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