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2023 NFL Season: Ceiling and floor predictions for rookie QBs

By Lou Scataglia

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MARCH 02: Will Levis of Kentucky poses for a portrait during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium on March 2, 2023 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MARCH 02: Will Levis of Kentucky poses for a portrait during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium on March 2, 2023 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images) /
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – MAY 20: Anthony Richardson #5 of the Indianapolis Colts poses for a portrait during the NFLPA Rookie Premiere on May 20, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – MAY 20: Anthony Richardson #5 of the Indianapolis Colts poses for a portrait during the NFLPA Rookie Premiere on May 20, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images) /

2023 NFL Season: Ceiling and floor predictions for rookie QBs

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson should be able to begin the year as the starter for the Colts in the 2023 NFL season.  The fourth overall pick has the highest ceiling of any passer taken in the 2023 NFL Draft and is oozing with talent.

However, I think his floor is the worst of the top four taken as well.  Some have labeled him as a raw prospect, but raw prospects have had surprising success recently in the NFL.

Ceiling: I think if Richardson hits his ceiling in the NFL, he’s a year ahead of what Josh Allen was able to do in his rookie season.  Josh Allen was a disaster in year one but showed obvious improvement in year two, and Richardson has some Josh Allen qualities in him.

Something like 20 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a completion percentage at 60% or a hair lower feels like a valid ceiling for Richardson.

Floor: I think if Richardson hits his floor, it’ll also be similar to what Josh Allen did in his rookie season.  Allen’s completion percentage was well below 60% and he threw more interceptions than touchdowns.  That feels like the 2023 NFL season for Richardson if not a lot goes well.

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