2025 NFL Mock Draft: Using ESPN FPI predictions for draft order

Last week, ESPN rolled out its Football Power Index (FPI) for the 2024 season. It is a thorough, analytical projection of the season. They also projected the 2025 draft order, running the simulation 10,000 times to create the order.

I decided it would be a fun time to revisit some of the top prospects for the 2025 draft class and take a look at how ESPN's projections impact who picks where.

1. New England Patriots - Mason Graham, DL, Michigan

FPI gives the Patriots a 21.9 percent chance to land the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, narrowly edging out the Panthers. It is difficult to believe New England would be this bad after two decades of dominance, but with a rookie head coach, a rookie quarterback and several notable roster holes, it is far from out of the question.

While offensive tackle and wide receiver would make a lot of sense to help Drake Maye, Graham is the best player in this draft class by my estimation. He is a potential game-wrecker who is capable of collapsing the pocket and boasts a deep array of pass-rush moves from the interior. He would form a terrifying duo with Christian Barmore on the interior of Jerod Mayo's defense.

2. Carolina Panthers - James Pearce, EDGE, Tennessee
Carolina came close to earning the top pick in the draft in ESPN's projections. FPI gives them a 20.8 percent chance to land the top pick for what would be the second year in a row. Bryce Young is hoping to take a step forward under new head coach Dave Canales.

The Panthers traded away Brian Burns this offseason and never really found a replacement. Pearce is a dynamic athlete off the edge with the speed to dominate his matchup. He appears to have good length on film as well. He would be an ideal scheme fit into Ejiro Evero's defense.

3. Denver Broncos - Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
We end up with a pretty steep drop-off in chances to land the top pick. Denver only landed the top pick in 12.4 percent of simulations. High, but clearly in a different tier than the Panthers and Patriots. The Broncos are in the midst of a massive rebuild, having swallowed a ton of dead cap to move on from Russell Wilson and turning the offense over to rookie Bo Nix.

Denver could go a number of directions, but adding another elite corner prospect feels like a worthwhile investment. This move would either free up George Paton or whoever is running the front office after the team lands a top-five selection, to move on from Patrick Surtain II for considerable draft capital. If not, the Broncos would be set up to have one of the best corner duos in the league. Johnson is a long, lockdown cover man with good ball skills and a willingness to tackle.

4. Tennessee Titans - Carson Beck, QB, Georgia
It turns out that the top three teams in this projection all drafted quarterbacks in the past two years, so that pushes Beck down the board to Tennessee. The Titans also drafted a quarterback two years ago, selecting Will Levis in the second round in 2023. However, drafting in the top four with a chance to take the top quarterback in the class likely spells the end of his time in Tennessee.

Beck is a tall, accurate passer with the ability to use his legs when the play breaks down. He is entering his second season as Georgia's starter and will need a big season to cement a spot in the top five. For the Titans, FPI gives them a 7.1 percent at the top pick and a 36.7 percent chance to land in the top five. Expectations are not high for Brian Callahan's debut season as head coach.

5. Washington Commanders - Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas
Washington underwent a major reset this offseason, bringing in Adam Peters as general manager, Dan Quinn as head coach, Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator and Jayden Daniels as quarterback. It's not shocking to see them picking so high with so many new faces. FPI gives them a 5.7 percent chance to land the No. 1 pick and a 32.3 percent chance to pick in the top five.

This was very close for me between Will Campbell and Banks. Right now, Banks has the edge for me. He is a sturdy, strong blocker with good size and decent footwork. He would be an excellent addition to Washington's offensive line.