John Elway calls passing on Josh Allen his "biggest mistake" as general manager
The 2018 NFL draft is one of the most memorable in recent history. It produced two of the top five quarterbacks in the league, a middle-of-the-road starter, a journeyman backup and one of the biggest busts in the past 10 years.
John Elway held the fifth pick in that draft. He was the general manager of the Broncos at the time. By the time Denver was on the clock, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold were already off the board. Elway opted for NC State pass rusher Bradley Chubb. The Bills traded up and drafted a quarterback by the name of Josh Allen two picks later. It turned out to be the worst mistake of Elway's tenure, according to him at least.
On a recent appearance on Barstool Sports' "Pardon My Take" podcast, Elway said he regretted not taking the Bills quarterback with the selection instead. Allen had played his college ball at nearby Wyoming. He had a cannon for an arm, but struggled with mechanics and accuracy throughout his three years as a college starter.
“And I loved him. But it just didn’t work out," Elway said of Allen. "He was my type. That was probably my biggest mistake of my GM days, was not taking Josh.”
Denver's murky quarterback situation
Allen has become one of the most prolific quarterbacks in the league in Buffalo under Sean McDermott. Current Giants coach Brian Daboll is credited for a lot of Allen's development. Since 2020, only Patrick Mahomes has more touchdown passes and yards than Allen.
Meanwhile, Chubb lasted four seasons in Denver before being traded to Miami. Injuries derailed his progress early on, costing him 12 games in 2019 and 10 in 2021. He was in the midst of a career year with the Dolphins, posting 11 sacks, but he tore his ACL just before the end of the regular season.
Given all the quarterback controversy that has transpired in recent years for the Broncos, it is easy to understand why Elway might lament passing on the All-Pro quarterback. Denver had Case Keenum start every game in 2018 before drafting Drew Lock in 2019. Lock split time with Joe Flacco and Brandon Allen as a rookie. He then started 13 games the following season with Brett Rypien, Jeff Driskel and even running back Phillip Lindsay all getting a start. The last one was due to COVID-19 ruling out the Broncos entire quarterback room.
After a 2021 season of Teddy Bridgewater at the helm and Lock being limited to just three starts, Elway swung for the fences by trading for Russell Wilson. Lock was shipped out as part of the deal along with Shelby Harris, Noah Fant and three first-round picks. On top of that, the Broncos awarded Wilson a five-year, $242 million contract extension upon his arrival. It was a hefty price to pay for the veteran quarterback, but one that the Broncos felt was worth paying as they chased the Chiefs atop the AFC West.
The move backfired wildly, with Wilson struggling first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett. The latter only lasted 13 games before the Broncos fired him. Sean Payton was brought in after another trade to be his successor. Wilson and Payton reportedly clashed heads and the relationship soured. It culminated with Denver benching Wilson despite being in playoff contention to avoid having to guarantee more of his contract if he were to suffer an injury. The Broncos cut Wilson after the 2023 season, taking on a whooping $85 million in dead money to do so.
The Wilson saga led the Broncos to drafting Bo Nix with the 12th pick in the 2024 draft in addition to trading for former No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson. They will join Jarrett Stidham in competing for the starting quarterback job this season.
Would Allen have worked in Denver?
Needless to say, Elway is right to wish he had drafted Allen. The Bills quarterback would be a massive upgrade over anyone currently on the roster. There is also a chance that Elway would still have his job. As of April 2023, he had no role with the Broncos after stints as GM, team president and an outside consultant.
However, there is no guarantee Allen would have become the player he is today. He needed quite a bit of development and guidance when he first arrived in the NFL. Denver's coaching setup was nowhere near that of what Buffalo had in place. Vance Joseph was in his second year on the job and wound up getting fired after the 2018 season. Offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave is a former NFL journeyman quarterback who has coached the position all throughout his career. However, he was also let go as part of the staff shakeup at the end of the season.
Things did not improve much with Vic Fangio taking over as head coach and Rich Scangarello as offensive coordinator. Fangio was fired after three seasons and Scangarello lasted just one year. There was a ton of turnover in a short period of time for Denver.
The key to Allen's growth was the stability in a positive environment. He has had the same head coach his entire career and had Daboll as his offensive coordinator for his first three seasons. The Bills also aided in his development by building a good offensive line in front of him and acquiring Stefon Diggs in 2020 to be his security blanket.
Perhaps Allen would have overcome all the dysfunction and inconsistency. He is one of the most talented players in the league. It is hard to imagine him being quite at the level he has reached under these conditions. Teams fail young players far more often than young players fail teams.
While Elway can lie awake at night wondering what might have happened had Denver drafted Allen with the fifth pick in the 2018 draft, he can find solace in knowing that he would not have ended up with the same player. The organization's inability to create continuity and build a more talented roster likely would have led to Allen flaming out of the league before his rookie contract had even run out.