What it will take for top 2024 draft picks to deliver on the hype
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Accolades needed: 4x Pro Bowl, All-Pro, OPOY
Daniels is nowhere near the same level of prospect as Williams. However, his name was often mentioned alongside Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffin III. That's what happens when you are an athletic quarterback who excels at running in open space and wins the Heisman Trophy. Realistically, Daniels' career should wind up somewhere between Jackson's and Griffin's.
Griffin was the second overall pick, also to Washington, back in 2012. He put together a dazzling rookie campaign, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, but tore his ACL and LCL in the playoffs and was never the same player after that.
His mobility made him special, but when that was compromised, his passing was not strong enough to make up for it. He threw more interceptions and took more sacks. He played 13 games in his second season, but never played more than nine in a season after that. Washington moved on to Kirk Cousins and Griffin wound up bouncing around the league before retiring.
On the other hand, Jackson is redefining what is possible for mobile quarterbacks. He is coming off his second MVP season, becoming just the eighth player since the 1970 merger to win the award more than once.
As dangerous as Jackson is with his legs, he has developed as a passer into one of the better ones in the league. He led the league in passing touchdowns the first time he won MVP. He posted a career high 67.1 percent completion percentage while averaging a healthy 8.4 air yards per attempt this past season.
So where Daniels lands should be somewhere in the middle. Pro Bowl selections are a little trickier to track for QBs these days, because so many bypass the game. But, if Daniels puts together four Pro Bowl-caliber seasons, I think that will go a long way to justifying the pick and the hype. I also think he needs to have that one special year where he makes an All-Pro team and wins Offensive Player of the Year.
The latter is harder to accomplish these days for a quarterback. It is slowly morphing into the non-QB MVP award. Patrick Mahomes was the last quarterback to win it and he threw for 50 touchdowns the year he did and won MVP. Perhaps I will have to reevaluate that inclusion in Daniels' expectations.
Daniels is going to be dynamic and difficult to game plan for because he has the type of speed that can completely change a game. However, he needs to be more than that. He took a massive jump in 2023 as a passer. In the four seasons prior, Daniels had thrown for 49 touchdowns. He tossed 40 in his final year at LSU. Is that an anomaly or a sign of things to come? That's what Daniels will now have to determine at the NFL level.