Why Caleb Williams should not be the #1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft

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Depending on who ends up with the #1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, there are at least two scenarios where Caleb Williams should not be the first player called in April. As of week 13, the Chicago Bears own the first overall pick thanks to the Carolina Panthers, the Arizona Cardinals occupy the second pick, New England Patriots third and the Bears again at the 4 spot with their own pick.

Caleb Williams is the most highly touted quarterback coming out of the 2024 draft class and has been since last season, however, there is a case to be made that if two teams currently in the top four end up with the first overall pick, that their selection should not be Caleb Williams.

Why Caleb Williams should not be the #1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft: Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears are likely to have two top-five picks. Justin Fields was supposed to be this "MVP candidate" player this year, and he's dealt with some injuries and some of the worst coaching in the NFL. If Ryan Poles thinks Justin Fields can still be THE guy for the Chicago Bears, he could draft Marvin Harrison Jr. and Penn State left tackle Olu Fashanu with their two top-five picks and have one hell of a tackle duo with Fashanu and Darnell Wright and a fearsome duo at wide receiver with DJ Moore and Marvin Harrison Jr. Pair Fields with the rumored Jim Harbaugh targeted interest if Matt Eberflus is fired and the Bears could have a solid, young offense.

Why Caleb Williams should not be the #1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft: Arizona Cardinals

In 2019 Kyler Murray was the Rookie of the Year, with 20 passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns, plus 544 rushing yards.

Just two years ago, Kyler Murray was a pro bowler. He threw for 3,787 yards in 14 games with 24 touchdowns and added 423 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. The year before in 2021, Kyler Murray was also a pro bowler with 3,971 yards and 26 touchdowns with 819 yards and 11 touchdowns rushing!

Kyler slowed down in 2022 before tearing his ACL and is just starting to come back from the injury in 2023. However, Kyler does possess a career 66.5 completion percentage, 242.8 yards per game average, and a decent 91.9 rating, which would put him around the 13-16 range in the NFL in 2023. The Cardinals need healthy skill position players and letting a generational talent like Marvin Harrison Jr. pass by could be a huge regret.

The Cardinals have had some hallmark wide receivers wearing the red and white with Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins donning the uniforms in recent years. The Cardinals could grab a guy already used to red and white in Marvin Harrison Jr. and potentially have a locked and loaded star wide receiver for many years to come.

Why Caleb Williams SHOULD be the #1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft: New England Patriots

No team in the NFL will admit to tanking, especially one coached by Bill Belichick, but if there is one team that should tank, it is absolutely the 2023 New England Patriots. The New England Patriots absolutely need to be in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes and if the Chicago Bears or the Arizona Cardinals end up with the number one pick, they should be calling the New England Patriots, asking them what they will give them for the number one pick and assumingly Caleb Williams and follow up by taking everything they can possibly squeeze out of New England.

I already outlined the reasons these two teams should skip Caleb Williams should they end up with the #1 pick. However, there is a lot of incentive for both of them to trade out of it should a team like the New England Patriots be dead set on taking Caleb Williams.

Firstly, the Chicago Bears already pulled off a draft pick trade heist for the #1 pick just a year ago, it resulted in a great pick at #10 in Darnell Wright, the Bears could trade back with the New England Patriots who currently sit at #3 and pick up more draft capital in the process.

As previously mentioned, the Arizona Cardinals could stick with Kyler Murray if they end up with the #1 pick, they could draft Marvin Harrison Jr. or trade back, if the Cardinals traded back, with say the Patriots or even a team like the Las Vegas Raiders or Atlanta Falcons who could be in the market to draft a quarterback, the Cardinals could also use a player like Olu Fashanu. Kyler Murray has been sacked 140 times in 60 career games, including nine times in his first three games in 2023.

Also for the Arizona Cardinals, it is likely that the #1 overall pick would be a lot easier to trade than Kyler Murray and would easily net a much bigger return.

Both the Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals would be smart to trade out of the #1 overall pick if there is a team that desperately wants Caleb Williams and is willing to pay to get to the first pick. If they're lucky, they could end up how the Bears did this year and end up with the #1 pick again in 2025 thanks to their trade partner.