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Fox’s 2016 NFL Preview Part 6: Brock Osweiler on Notice

By jonfox

Aug 20, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler (17) attempts a pass during the first quarter against the New Orleans Saints at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 20, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler (17) attempts a pass during the first quarter against the New Orleans Saints at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /
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Which players will the entire league be watching? Houston’s Brock Osweiler will be one of those players getting a ton of attention.

There’s two players that the entire league will be watching albeit for very different reasons. They’re both quarterbacks and their play in 2016-fair or not-will have massive reverberations in the NFL moving forward.

The first one is Brock Osweiler. Not since Scott Mitchell’s megadeal(for the time) with the Detroit Lions has a quarterback been given so much cash without any sort of track record of success. Curiously enough both players made seven starts in the season in which they cashed in free agent money on.

Mitchell also went to a team who believed that all they needed was a quarterback away from contention. The Lions of that era had a good offense in place and were able to make the playoffs three times with Mitchell at the helm(losing in the wild card game all three times).

But Mitchell was never worth the investment outside of one good season in 1995. And the net result of Mitchell’s move was that quarterback salaries plateaued.

When Brett Favre and Troy Aikman signed contracts in 1997 and 1996 respectively, their average per season wasn’t significantly more than Scott Mitchell’s was(after factoring in potential bonuses and elevator clauses). It is very fair to say that the Mitchell signing single handedly effected quarterback salaries.

Quarterback salaries have been rising dramatically every season and of late crazy amounts of money have been handed out to players who’ve put together one good/great season despite their inconsistency or poor play prior to then.

If Osweiler struggles in Houston, this could be another Scott Mitchell moment for the league. If he has a subpar season, it’s hard to see a team like the Redskins giving Kirk Cousins the kind of contract that can’t be cut in 2 seasons that he’s demanding. Tyrod Taylor took a incentive laden deal now instead of betting on Osweiler and himself in 2016.

If Osweiler struggles, then the only quarterbacks who will see big money contracts will be ones who have far more established track records.

Conversely if Osweiler plays well, there’s going to be even crazier money thrown out there by quarterback desperate teams. Using the example of the Redskins, if Osweiler goes for 4500 yards, then either Kirk Cousins will get Andrew Luck level money or they’ll make a move for someone like Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill or Sam Bradford and offer them Osweiler-level money.

The second player the league will be watching also has a connection to the burgundy and gold: Robert Griffin III.

Whether it’s fair to him or not, Griffin is going to be a major test case about the viability of dual threat quarterback prospects coming out of college. Hue Jackson isn’t going to use him as anything but a pocket passer in Cleveland. And if he thrives in this role after nearly four seasons of drama, failure and frustration then the viability of dual threat prospects will rise.

And why this will happen is simple: teams are very worried about the lack of pocket passer prospects coming out of college each year because of the increasing use of option and spread offense variants.

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Right now, if a prospect plays in anything resembling a pro-style offense and has a decent amount of arm talent, teams are going to be scouting them intensely to see if there’s any NFL potential and if so they’ll be gone by Day 2 in the draft. Ask Christian Hackenberg.

If one of the major stories from 2016 is that a smart offensive coordinator/quarterback guru can take a raw pocket passer and make it work, then teams are going to copy that plan so that they can take prospects like DeShaun Watson and teach him over a season or two.

If Griffin fails as a pocket passer then get use to first round picks at quarterback like Mason Rudolph, Gunner Kiel and Mitch Leidner. And players like Watson will drop down the draft as teams decide that the upside doesn’t justify the risk.

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