Grading the 2010 NFL Draft – AFC North
By Doug Kitts
They say you cannot really grade a draft until at least three years have gone by. Players that look great in shorts may not translate well onto an NFL roster. Players that are great in year one might fizzle out by year three. Likewise, players that don’t even see the field in the first season may turn out to be complete studs by year three. So here we are in 2013 and the draft class of 2010 has had three seasons to prove their mettle and therefore “they” say that we can now grade this draft class. But how do we do this? Do we simply use the eyeball test? I am a nerd at heart and I love numbers. So I have attempted to quantify things beyond just an eyeball test. This is a far from perfect system. It simply gives us a jumping off point in the discussion.
Please check out this link for an explanation on how I came about these numbers and what they mean.
Here is the AFC East breakdown.
This is part two…
The AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Kindle | Texas | DE | 43(2) | 0.63 | 0.69 | -183.00 |
| Terrence Cody | Alabama | DT | 57(2) | 13.71 | 15.71 | -14.00 |
| Ed Dickson | Oregon | TE | 70(3) | 15.98 | 18.84 | 24.00 |
| Dennis Pitta | BYU | TE | 114(4) | 10.59 | 13.66 | 10.00 |
| David Reed | Utah | WR | 156(5) | 6.04 | 8.45 | -7.00 |
| Arthur Jones | Syracuse | DT | 157(5) | 6.25 | 8.75 | -3.00 |
| Ramon Harewood | Morehouse | OT | 194(6) | 9.58 | 14.32 | 76.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 62.78 (20th)
- Total Weighted Score: 80.42 (20th)
- Average Raw Score: 8.97 (16th)
- Average Weighted Score: 11.49 (17th)
- Total Draft Value: -97 (23rd)
- Average Draft Value: -13.86 (25th)
Analysis: Much like Belichick in New England, Ozzie Newsome has the perception of mastery of the NFL Draft. But unlike Belichick in 2010, Newsome proved to be more hype than substance. Nothing speaks volumes about this more than the tight end position. Both teams drafted two tight ends in the draft. And while Baltimore’s selections of Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta represent two of their best picks, both pale in comparison to the NE tight ends. Baltimore traded out of the first round to allow Denver to move up to draft Tim Tebow. In doing so they missed out on Gronkowski by one pick and opted for the talented but injured Sergio Kindle. That would prove disastrous as Kindle as only appeared in three games in three seasons. Jimmy Graham was still on the board for the Ravens’ next pick, but Newsome opted for Terrence Cody. Cody has been a solid player but not exactly impactful. Graham was still availabe when the Ravens selected Dickson. And Hernandez went one pick before the Ravens took Pitta. Reed, Jones, and Harewood have provided depth but none have been spectacular. This draft for the Ravens seems to be marred by the failed Kindle gamble and a story of what might have been at tight end.
Cincinnati Bengals
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Gresham | Oklahoma | TE | 21(1) | 19.82 | 20.88 | 11.00 |
| Carlos Dunlap | Florida | DE | 54(2) | 8.44 | 9.61 | -78.00 |
| Jordan Shipley | Texas | WR | 84(3) | 7.40 | 8.99 | -63.00 |
| Brandon Ghee | Wake Forest | CB | 96(3) | 2.71 | 3.37 | -103.00 |
| Geno Atkins | Georgia | DT | 120(4) | 19.67 | 25.68 | 108.00 |
| Roddrick Muckelroy | Texas | LB | 131(4) | 5.01 | 6.68 | -45.00 |
| Otis Hudson | Eastern Illinois | G | 152(5) | 0.00 | 0.00 | -90.00 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | Kansas | WR | 191(6) | 5.83 | 8.67 | 23.00 |
| Reggie Stephens | Iowa State | G | 228(7) | 0.00 | 0.00 | -22.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 68.88 (18th)
- Total Weighted Score: 83.89 (18th)
- Average Raw Score: 7.65 (25th)
- Average Weighted Score: 9.32 (25th)
- Total Draft Value: -259 (30th)
- Average Draft Value: -28.78 (30th)
Analysis: The 2010 Cincinnati Bengals draft class can be broken into two distinct parts. The first part is comprised of Jermaine Gresham and Geno Atkins. The second part is completely forgettable. Gresham, who was taken 21st overall, has been everything you could ask for as mid to late first round pick. He’s been a solid tight end with flashes of greatness, earning himself two Pro Bowl appearances in three seasons. As good as Gresham has been, Geno Atkins has been even better. Coming from a late fourth round selection, Atkins has developed into one of the best defensive tackles in the entire NFL. He would have been a great value in the 1st round. Getting Atkins in the 4ht round is outright larceny. That’s the good news. Beyond those two picks, however, is a whole lot of nothing. Dunlap has been a situational pass rusher. You can live with that with a mid to late round pick but not in the second round. Shipley is no longer with the team. Ghee has battled through injuries. Briscoe has been the only contributor as a late round pick. Neither offensive linemen have even seen the field. Atkins and Gresham were fabulous picks, but the rest of the draft brings Cincinnati’s overall score way down.
Cleveland Browns
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Haden | Florida | CB | 7(1) | 16.61 | 16.90 | -31.00 |
| T. J. Ward | Oregon | S | 38(2) | 17.92 | 19.65 | 13.00 |
| Montario Hardesty | Tennessee | RB | 59(2) | 6.86 | 7.89 | -95.00 |
| Colt McCoy | Texas | QB | 85(3) | 13.75 | 16.73 | 16.00 |
| Shawn Lauvao | Arizona State | OT | 92(3) | 16.61 | 20.50 | 53.00 |
| Larry Asante | Nebraska | S | 160(5) | 2.50 | 3.52 | -42.00 |
| Carlton Mitchell | South Florida | WR | 177(6) | 3.33 | 4.84 | -11.00 |
| Clifton Geathers | South Carolina | DE | 186(6) | 3.13 | 4.61 | -10.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 80.7 (12th)
- Total Weighted Score: 94.64 (16th)
- Average Raw Score: 10.09 (11th)
- Average Weighted Score: 11.83 (14th)
- Total Draft Value: -107 (26th)
- Average Draft Value: -13.38 (24th)
Analysis: I keep coming back to my explanation post about the numbers and the inherent flaws in the system. Does this system really think that Shawn Lauvao was a better pick than Joe Haden? Haden’s four game suspension in 2012 dropped him about 15 spots in the rankings. But maybe, despite the talent, the grade is an accurate one. I know as a fan I feel that Haden’s suspension may have cost the Browns as many as three wins. And while Haden passes the eyeball test for the Browns, in reality the value isn’t as great as one would think when talking about overall production. T.J. Ward has been a good pick as far as value and production. Is he a superstar? No. Is he a good NFL starter? Yes. And while you try to get lucky and get a superstar in the 2nd round, it’s good value to just get a starter in that spot. Likewise, Colt McCoy as a 3rd round pick contributed a decent amount. He has since been shipped off, but the value at number 85 overall is there. Lauvao is my whipping boy at guard. But in the end he’s been a durable two year starter. That’s more than can be said for most 3rd round picks. The Browns didn’t hit all with their late round picks. Clifton Geathers is a journeyman and Asante and Mitchell are no longer in the league. The worst pick by far though was moving up to grab an oft-injured Montario Hardesty. Hardesty has only appeared in 22 games in three seasons. Overall, the Browns draft was average with some hits and misses. If Haden and Ward can continue to develop this draft looks much better.
Pittsburgh Steelers
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurkice Pouncey | Florida | C | 18(1) | 23.38 | 24.45 | 17.00 |
| Jason Worilds | Virginia Tech | DE | 52(2) | 11.13 | 12.61 | -46.00 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | SMU | WR | 82(3) | 10.33 | 12.49 | -26.00 |
| Thaddeus Gibson | Ohio State | DE | 116(4) | 0.83 | 1.08 | -104.00 |
| Chris Scott | Tennessee | OT | 151(5) | 0.42 | 0.58 | -82.00 |
| Crezdon Butler | Clemson | CB | 164(5) | 2.29 | 3.25 | -42.00 |
| Stevenson Sylvester | Utah | LB | 166(5) | 8.79 | 12.50 | 39.00 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | Georgia Tech | RB | 188(6) | 7.23 | 10.70 | 38.00 |
| Antonio Brown | Central Michigan | WR | 195(6) | 12.34 | 18.47 | 112.00 |
| Doug Worthington | Ohio State | DT | 242(7) | 1.25 | 2.02 | 26.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 77.99 (15th)
- Total Weighted Score: 98.15 (14th)
- Average Raw Score: 7.80 (24th)
- Average Weighted Score: 9.82 (24th)
- Total Draft Value: -68 (20th)
- Average Draft Value: -6.80 (18th)
Analysis: The ranking system loves Maurkice Pouncey. Three year starter. Relatively durable. Three Pro Bowls in three years. One 1st team All Pro. According to the system in place, Pouncey is the best draft pick of 2010 based on raw score. There is a definitely perception of those outside of Pittsburgh that Pouncey is a touch overrated. But there’s no denying what a great pick this was for Pittsburgh. But even if this methodology gave Pouncey a little extra love, it’s counterbalanced by the lack of love for Emmanuel Sanders and Jason Worilds. Sanders and Worilds are a product of a Steelers’ system that rarely allows young players early chances to shine. And while Sanders has been a role player for his first three seasons he will most likely be a starter moving forward with the departure of Mike Wallace to the Dolphins. Worilds will be competing with rookie Jarvis Jones to start opposite of Lamar Woodley now that James Harrison has moved on. But fair or unfair, for the purposes of this grading, both picks have not lived up to the value of their draft slot. Gibson, Scott, and Butler have rarely seen the field as mid round selections. Value was plentiful in the sixth round, however. Dwyer has provided some spot starts due to injury and ineffectiveness of other backs on the roster. Antonio Brown has seized a starting WR role and his production was part of the reason the Steelers could let Mike Wallace walk away this season. The numbers really don’t do this draft justice and the lack of production in the middle rounds really hurt the overall grade.