Grading the 2010 NFL Draft – AFC South
By Doug Kitts
They say you cannot really grade a draft until at least three years have gone by. Players that look great in shorts may not translate well onto an NFL roster. Players that are great in year one might fizzle out by year three. Likewise, players that don’t even see the field in the first season may turn out to be complete studs by year three. So here we are in 2013 and the draft class of 2010 has had three seasons to prove their mettle and therefore “they” say that we can now grade this draft class. But how do we do this? Do we simply use the eyeball test? I am a nerd at heart and I love numbers. So I have attempted to quantify things beyond just an eyeball test. This is a far from perfect system. It simply gives us a jumping off point in the discussion.
Please check out this link for an explanation on how I came about these numbers and what they mean.
Here is the AFC East breakdown.
Here is the AFC North breakdown.
This is part three…
Houston Texans
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Jackson | Alabama | CB | 20(1) | 18.94 | 19.91 | 2.00 |
| Ben Tate | Auburn | RB | 58(2) | 6.19 | 7.10 | -104.00 |
| Earl Mitchell | Arizona | DT | 81(3) | 10.43 | 12.58 | -24.00 |
| Darryl Sharpton | Miami (FL) | LB | 102(4) | 9.70 | 12.22 | -15.00 |
| Garrett Graham | Wisconsin | TE | 118(4) | 8.69 | 11.31 | -10.00 |
| Sherrick McManis | Northwestern | CB | 144(5) | 7.29 | 9.97 | -5.00 |
| Shelley Smith | Colorado State | G | 187(6) | 8.46 | 12.49 | 57.00 |
| Trindon Holliday | LSU | KR | 197(6) | 2.29 | 3.44 | -10.00 |
| Dorin Dickerson | Pittsburgh | TE | 227(7) | 1.46 | 2.30 | 16.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 73.45 (16th)
- Total Weighted Score: 91.33 (17th)
- Average Raw Score: 8.16 (21st)
- Average Weighted Score: 10.15 (21st)
- Total Draft Value: -93 (22nd)
- Average Draft Value: -10.33 (21st)
Analysis: With the 20th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans selected Kareem Jackson out of Alabama and has been rewarded with three seasons of steady play and starter. There’s not much else you can expect out of a mid to late first round pick. The second round selection of Ben Tate, however, has not lived up to expectations. Due to injuries and ineffectiveness, coupled with the emergence of un-drafted sensation Arian Foster, Tate has only appeared in 26 games in three seasons, two of them as a starter. A part time and often injured running back in the second round is the epitome of bad value. Earl Mitchell has been a role player. Darryl Sharpton has struggled with injuries and is hoping to be completely healthy for the first time. None of the later round picks are with the team any longer. A healthy Sharpton would go a long way in making this draft look a lot better. But as of now, beyond Jackson, there is very little value.
Indianapolis Colts
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Hughes | TCU | DE | 31(1) | 10.08 | 10.88 | -78.00 |
| Pat Angerer | Iowa | LB | 63(2) | 15.70 | 18.23 | 11.00 |
| Kevin Thomas | USC | CB | 94(3) | 7.43 | 9.21 | -51.00 |
| Jacques McClendon | Tennessee | G | 129(4) | 0.83 | 1.11 | -93.00 |
| Brody Eldridge | Oklahoma | TE | 162(5) | 11.55 | 16.32 | 72.00 |
| Ricardo Mathews | Cincinnati | DT | 238(7) | 8.26 | 13.27 | 103.00 |
| Kavell Conner | Clemson | LB | 240(7) | 17.32 | 27.92 | 208.00 |
| Ray Fisher | Indiana | CB | 246(7) | 0.00 | 0.00 | -7.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 71.18 (17th)
- Total Weighted Score: 96.94 (15th)
- Average Raw Score: 8.90 (17th)
- Average Weighted Score: 12.12 (12th)
- Total Draft Value: +165 (7th)
- Average Draft Value: +20.63 (7th)
Analysis: The Colts drafted six defensive players in 2010. In 2012 the team switched to a new hybrid 3-4 defense. Needless to say, that rarely bodes well for current personnel. What’s really strange is that Jerry Hughes was projected to fit an OLB position in a 3-4 scheme. So despite little production out of Hughes his first two seasons there was hope that year three would prove his worth as a first round pick. That just hasn’t been the case and Hughes only started 7 total games for the Colts and was jettisoned to the Buffalo Bills this offseason. Second round pick Pat Angerer was a tackling machine for the Colts his first two seasons. Unfortunately his third season in the new system was marred with ineffectiveness and injuries. Thomas and McClendon never got going and are no longer with the team. Ray Fisher is out of the league. The lone shining star of the draft has been ILB Kavell Conner. After having a stellar 2011 campaign, Conner has seen his playing time cut recently so it will be interesting to see what the Colts do with in the future. Overall this defensive heavy draft did not have much hope with a regime and system change just two seasons later.
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Alualu | California | DT | 10(1) | 20.00 | 20.51 | 3.00 |
| D’Anthony Smith | Louisiana Tech | DT | 74(3) | 4.17 | 4.95 | -107.00 |
| Larry Hart | Central Arkansas | DE | 143(5) | 2.92 | 3.98 | -55.00 |
| Austen Lane | Murray State | DE | 153(5) | 11.90 | 16.55 | 66.00 |
| Deji Karim | Southern Illinois | RB | 180(6) | 5.42 | 7.90 | 8.00 |
| Scotty McGee | James Madison | KR | 203(6) | 0.00 | 0.00 | -43.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 44.40 (30th)
- Total Weighted Score: 53.9 (30th)
- Average Raw Score: 7.40 (26th)
- Average Weighted Score: 8.98 (27th)
- Total Draft Value: -128 (29th)
- Average Draft Value: -21.33 (28th)
Analysis: Tyson Alualu was considered a reach when he was drafted tenth overall in 2010. This system doesn’t consider him a reach as he has been a durable three year starter. That doesn’t exactly tell the tale as Alualu’s performance has been underwhelming for a pick so high. The sad news is that an underwhelming pick in the first round is almost the entire production of the Jaguar’s entire 2010 draft class, Austen Lane being the only other somewhat bright spot as a part time player at defensive end. Third round choice D’Anthony Smith spent his first two seasons injured. Fourth round pick spent one year in the NFL before being released. Jacksonville’s win totals have decreased from eight to five to two in the three years since this draft has taken place. It’s little wonder looking at the lack of value.
Tennessee Titans
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Morgan | Georgia Tech | DE | 16(1) | 14.72 | 15.32 | -47.00 |
| Damian Williams | USC | WR | 77(3) | 12.80 | 15.32 | -1.00 |
| Rennie Curran | Georgia | LB | 97(3) | 1.88 | 2.34 | -111.00 |
| Alterraun Verner | UCLA | CB | 104(4) | 16.46 | 20.82 | 62.00 |
| Robert Johnson | Utah | S | 148(5) | 5.13 | 7.06 | -27.00 |
| Rusty Smith | Florida Atlantic | QB | 176(6) | 3.33 | 4.83 | -11.00 |
| Myron Rolle | Florida State | S | 207(6) | 0.00 | 0.00 | -40.00 |
| Marc Mariani | Montana | WR | 222(7) | 7.67 | 12.01 | 81.00 |
| David Howard | Brown | DT | 241(7) | 0.00 | 0.00 | -11.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 61.98 (21st)
- Total Weighted Score: 77.69 (21st)
- Average Raw Score: 6.89 (30th)
- Average Weighted Score: 8.63 (29th)
- Total Draft Value: -105 (25th)
- Average Draft Value: -11.67 (23rd)
Analysis: Derrick Morgan’s rookie campaign was cut short due to injury. In 2011 he slowly worked his way into the starting lineup and started showing flashes in 2012 of why he was drafted so highly in 2010. So far though he has not lived up to the billing. Damian Williams has been a solid third round pick, providing the team with some spot starts. As a third or fourth receiver the team has gotten solid production but nothing spectacular. The other third round pick, Curran, was cut before the 2011 season. Alterraun Verner has developed into a starting cornerback which is great value in the fourth round. No other player has contributed much beyond special teams. Morgan is the key to this draft. If he can develop into a upper tier defensive end this looks like a great draft with two starters and another key contributor in Williams. If Morgan ends up busting, so do this draft as he’s in a make or break type of situation.