They say you cannot really grade a draft until at least three years have gone by. Players that look great in shorts may not translate well onto an NFL roster. Players that are great in year one might fizzle out by year three. Likewise, players that don’t even see the field in the first season may turn out to be complete studs by year three. So here we are in 2013 and the draft class of 2010 has had three seasons to prove their mettle and therefore “they” say that we can now grade this draft class. But how do we do this? Do we simply use the eyeball test? I am a nerd at heart and I love numbers. So I have attempted to quantify things beyond just an eyeball test. This is a far from perfect system. It simply gives us a jumping off point in the discussion.
Please check out this link for an explanation on how I came about these numbers and what they mean.
Here is the AFC East breakdown.
Here is the AFC North breakdown.
Here is the AFC South breakdown.
Here is the AFC West breakdown.
This is part five…
Dallas Cowboys
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | Oklahoma State | WR | 24(1) | 15.70 | 16.66 | -27.00 |
| Sean Lee | Penn State | LB | 55(2) | 13.29 | 15.16 | -20.00 |
| Akwasi Owusu-Ansah | Indiana (PA) | CB | 126(4) | 4.35 | 5.74 | -53.00 |
| Sam Young | Notre Dame | OT | 179(6) | 5.97 | 8.70 | 15.00 |
| Jamar Wall | Texas Tech | CB | 196(6) | 0.42 | 0.62 | -38.00 |
| Sean Lissemore | William & Mary | DT | 234(7) | 7.98 | 12.74 | 97.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 47.70 (27th)
- Total Weighted Score: 59.62 (26th)
- Average Raw Score: 7.95 (23rd)
- Average Weighted Score: 9.94 (22nd)
- Total Draft Value: -26 (16th)
- Average Draft Value: -4.33 (16th)
Analysis: Always looking to make a splash, Jerry Jones snatched up Dez Bryant in the first round of the 2010 draft who had the talent of a top five pick but a lot of baggage concerns. As is the case with many receivers it took Bryant a little bit of time to crack the starting lineup. Because of that lack of early playing time he is dinged a little here on overall value. But despite a few more off the field issues that have arisen, Bryant is beginning to show why he was picked in the first round. Sean Lee snatched a starting spot on the Cowboys defense in 2011. An injury in ’12, however, cost him most of the season. So like Bryant, a lack of field time has negated some of the value. The real issue with this draft lies in the picks beyond the second round. Only seventh round selection Sean Lissemore has remained with the team beyond the 2010 season. While the chances of mid to late round picks sticking in the NFL are small, teams hope to at least get a few seasons of contribution out of a few of these picks. Having less than half of your picks around one season later is not what you strive for. Couple that with the slow development of the top two picks, and this Cowboys draft is very disappointing.
New York Giants
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Pierre-Paul | South Florida | DE | 15(1) | 18.63 | 19.34 | -7.00 |
| Linval Joseph | East Carolina | DT | 46(2) | 16.07 | 17.96 | 2.00 |
| Chad Jones | LSU | S | 76(3) | 0.00 | 0.00 | -165.00 |
| Phillip Dillard | Nebraska | LB | 115(4) | 1.46 | 1.89 | -95.00 |
| Mitch Petrus | Arkansas | G | 147(5) | 5.54 | 7.61 | -24.00 |
| Adrian Tracy | William & Mary | LB | 184(6) | 3.33 | 4.90 | -5.00 |
| Matt Dodge | East Carolina | P | 221(7) | 3.33 | 5.21 | 31.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 48.36 (26th)
- Total Weighted Score: 56.91 (29th)
- Average Raw Score: 6.91 (28th)
- Average Weighted Score: 8.13 (30th)
- Total Draft Value: -263 (31st)
- Average Draft Value: -37.57 (31st)
Analysis: The New York Football Giants recipe for success? Draft defensive linemen. When you think you have enough, draft some more. 2010 proved no different. In the first round the Giants drafted raw but immensely gifted Jason Pierre-Paul, an ultimate big risk/reward guy. As anticipated JPP took a little bit of time to work his way into the starting lineup. But he has paid mighty dividends to the tune of two Pro Bowl appearances and one all AP first team. In the second round the Giants drafted Linval Joseph who has turned into a mainstay starter at defensive tackle. That’s a great start to an NFL draft right there. Unfortunately, that’s where the value ends. The only other player to even be on the roster at this point is little used Adrian Tracy. Matt Dodge had one brief season with the team before being cast out of the NFL entirely. Dillard and Petrus now reside on other rosters. Chad Jones got into a horrific car accident and never saw the field. In the end it’s fantastic to fill two starters with your first two picks, but much like the Cowboys draft, the Giants need more production beyond that.
Philadelphia Eagles
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Graham | Michigan | DE | 13(1) | 10.42 | 10.76 | -93.00 |
| Nate Allen | South Florida | S | 37(2) | 17.80 | 19.47 | 10.00 |
| Daniel Te’o-Nesheim | Washington | DE | 86(3) | 9.13 | 11.13 | -36.00 |
| Trevard Lindley | Kentucky | CB | 105(4) | 3.20 | 4.06 | -88.00 |
| Keenan Clayton | Oklahoma | LB | 121(4) | 7.58 | 9.92 | -21.00 |
| Mike Kafka | Northwestern | QB | 122(4) | 0.83 | 1.09 | -99.00 |
| Clay Harbor | Missouri State | TE | 125(4) | 12.74 | 16.80 | 45.00 |
| Ricky Sapp | Clemson | DE | 134(5) | 0.63 | 0.84 | -94.00 |
| Riley Cooper | Florida | WR | 159(5) | 10.83 | 15.23 | 57.00 |
| Charles Scott | LSU | RB | 200(6) | 0.00 | 0.00 | -45.00 |
| Jamar Chaney | Mississippi State | LB | 220(7) | 14.39 | 22.47 | 156.00 |
| Jeff Owens | Georgia | DT | 243(7) | 0.21 | 0.34 | 4.00 |
| Kurt Coleman | Ohio State | S | 244(7) | 15.76 | 25.56 | 195.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 103.51 (3rd)
- Total Weighted Score: 137.67 (2nd)
- Average Raw Score: 7.96 (22nd)
- Average Weighted Score: 10.59 (18th)
- Total Draft Value: -9 (15th)
- Average Draft Value: -0.69 (15th)
Analysis: There’s quality and there’s quantity. Sometimes you just have to throw it all against the wall and see what sticks. That’s how the Philadelphia Eagles 2010 draft feels. The Eagles selected 13 players to varying degrees of success. For the value the best pick is perhaps Kurt Coleman. This seventh round pick turned into a three season contributor and two season starter at safety. Earlier in the second round the Eagles also drafted Nate Allen for the other safety spot. Other contributors include Jamar Chaney in the seventh, Riley Cooper in the fifth, and Clay Harbor in the fourth. Unfortunately the only other player to garner much playing time was first round pick Brandon Graham who the Eagles traded up to draft. Graham has been a disappointment with limited playing time and production. And while it hurts badly enough to miss on a first round pick, it hurts even worse when you trade up to grab that pick. And for a little more salt in the wound, two picks later the hated Giants picked another DE in JPP who has completely blown away Graham in the three seasons since the pick. With Chip Kelly’s transition to the 3-4, Graham is now going to have to make a position switch. Thirteen picks resulted in six contributors to the Eagles. This produces an overall strong total value but a fairly anemic average value resulting in a middling overall draft score. Quantity is all well and good. Unfortunately you hope for a little more quality, especially early on.
Washington Redskins
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Williams | Oklahoma | OT | 4(1) | 19.08 | 19.28 | -11.00 |
| Perry Riley | LSU Tigers | LB | 103(4) | 14.33 | 18.10 | 38.00 |
| Dennis Morris | Louisiana Tech | TE | 174(6) | 0.00 | 0.00 | -70.00 |
| Terrence Austin | UCLA | WR | 219(7) | 3.75 | 5.84 | 33.00 |
| Erik Cook | New Mexico | C | 229(7) | 1.46 | 2.31 | 17.00 |
| Selvish Capers | West Virginia | OT | 231(7) | 0.63 | 0.99 | 0.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 39.25 (32nd)
- Total Weighted Score: 46.52 (32nd)
- Average Raw Score: 6.54 (31st)
- Average Weighted Score: 7.75 (31st)
- Total Draft Value: +7 (14th)
- Average Draft Value: +1.17 (14th)
Analysis: In keeping with the NFC East 2010 Draft theme, the Redskins long term value is completely relegated to their first two picks. Trent Williams has been an instant starter at left tackle and other than a knee injury in 2011, relatively durable. There’s not much more you can ask for out of your first round pick. Fourth round pick Perry Riley has been a mainstay at linebacker for the last season and a half, great value for a fourth rounder. Because of previous trades the Redskins lacked a second or third round pick leaving them to hope for value in late round picks, value which did not surface. A lack of early picks and a lack of late round value doomed this draft to overall failure. But it could have been so much worse if the Skins had not hit on Williams and/or Riley.