They say you cannot really grade a draft until at least three years have gone by. Players that look great in shorts may not translate well onto an NFL roster. Players that are great in year one might fizzle out by year three. Likewise, players that don’t even see the field in the first season may turn out to be complete studs by year three. So here we are in 2013 and the draft class of 2010 has had three seasons to prove their mettle and therefore “they” say that we can now grade this draft class. But how do we do this? Do we simply use the eyeball test? I am a nerd at heart and I love numbers. So I have attempted to quantify things beyond just an eyeball test. This is a far from perfect system. It simply gives us a jumping off point in the discussion.
Please check out this link for an explanation on how I came about these numbers and what they mean.
Here is the AFC East breakdown.
Here is the AFC North breakdown.
Here is the AFC South breakdown.
Here is the AFC West breakdown.
Here is the NFC East breakdown.
This is part six…
Chicago Bears
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major Wright | Florida | S | 75(3) | 15.05 | 17.93 | 14.00 |
| Corey Wootton | Northwestern | DE | 109(4) | 8.46 | 10.81 | -22.00 |
| Joshua Moore | Kansas State | CB | 141(5) | 0.63 | 0.85 | -88.00 |
| Dan LeFevour | Central Michigan | QB | 181(6) | 2.71 | 3.96 | -19.00 |
| J’Marcus Webb | West Texas A&M | OT | 218(7) | 19.15 | 29.79 | 204.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 45.99 (29th)
- Total Weighted Score: 63.33 (23rd)
- Average Raw Score: 9.20 (14th)
- Average Weighted Score: 12.67 (9th)
- Total Draft Value: +89 (9th)
- Average Draft Value: +17.80 (8th)
Analysis: One player can save a draft. The Chicago Bears went into the 2010 draft with no pick in the first two rounds. That doesn’t exactly instill confidence in the value a team will produce in that draft. In the third round the Bears chose safety Major Wright. Wright locked up the starting strong safety role in his second season and has proven to be a good pickup. Corey Wootton battled injuries and ineffectiveness early in his career before finally beginning to break out in 2012. Moore and LeFevour never really got going for the Bears. If the story ended there you could say it was a fairly terrible draft for the bears. But in the seventh round the Bears selected an offensive lineman from a little known school in west Texas. The reward? A three year starter at right tackle. J’Marcus Webb has provided the offensive line starved Bears with a fixture on their line. He has outplayed higher draft picks such as Gabe Carimi and as a result, epitomized the concept of draft value. In hindsight, Webb most likely would not even be considered a reach in the first round. While he’s not a flashy Pro Bowl left tackle, Webb is everything you hope for when drafting offensive line.
Detroit Lions
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ndamukong Suh | Nebraska | DT | 2(1) | 21.37 | 21.47 | -2.00 |
| Jahvid Best | California | RB | 30(1) | 11.40 | 12.27 | -61.00 |
| Amari Spievey | Iowa | CB | 66(3) | 14.72 | 17.20 | 4.00 |
| Jason Fox | Miami (FL) | OT | 128(4) | 1.04 | 1.38 | -89.00 |
| Willie Young | NC State | DE | 213(7) | 6.67 | 10.29 | 57.00 |
| Tim Toone | Weber State | WR | 255(7) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 55.20 (23rd)
- Total Weighted Score: 62.62 (25th)
- Average Raw Score: 9.20 (15th)
- Average Weighted Score: 10.44 (19th)
- Total Draft Value: -91 (21st)
- Average Draft Value: -15.17 (26th)
Analysis: In the case of the Bears one player saved a draft. One could argue that in the case of the Lions one player sullied a draft. With the second overall pick in the draft the Lions chose Suh who many felt was the best player in the draft. For the most part, Suh has delivered. The one negative has been his penchant for suspension for questionable tactics. The next pick is the one that hurts. Instead of staying put with their second round pick, the Lions traded back up into the first round to select Jahvid Best. Best was known to have concussion issues in college. The talent was there but there was always a question of whether or not he would be able to stay on the field. Unfortunately that question was answered and not to the Lions’ benefit. Best only appeared in 6 games in 2011 and missed the entire 2012 season. If not for some flashes in 2010, the pick would have been entirely wasted. Amari Spievey has been a serviceable player at safety, despite some off the field issues this year. Willie Young has provided some sort of depth for a defensive end strapped team. Jason Fox and Tim Toone have been forgettable. Had the Lions sat tight and made a wiser second selection we might be discussing this as one of the better drafts of 2010.
Green Bay Packers
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Bulaga | Iowa | OT | 23(1) | 16.63 | 17.60 | -14.00 |
| Mike Neal | Purdue | DT | 56(2) | 3.96 | 4.52 | -128.00 |
| Morgan Burnett | Georgia Tech | S | 71(3) | 17.50 | 20.67 | 42.00 |
| Andrew Quarless | Penn State | TE | 154(5)2 | 6.97 | 9.70 | 1.00 |
| Marshall Newhouse | TCU | OT | 169(5) | 15.73 | 22.51 | 119.00 |
| James Starks | Buffalo | RB | 193(6) | 6.40 | 9.55 | 35.00 |
| C. J. Wilson | East Carolina | DE | 230(7) | 11.61 | 18.41 | 141.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 78.79 (14th)
- Total Weighted Score: 102.97 (12th)
- Average Raw Score: 11.26 (5th)
- Average Weighted Score: 14.71 (4th)
- Total Draft Value: +196 (5th)
- Average Draft Value: +28.00 (4th)
Analysis: With seven picks in the draft a team needs to produce two starters if possible. In a perfect world that same team will also procure a few other key contributors. Well in 2010 the Green Bay Packers managed to grab themselves four starters and three other contributors, going seven for seven. In Bulaga and Newhouse both tackles on the offensive line were filled with Newhouse coming in the fifth round. Morgan Burnett grabbed ahold of the starting free safety position. C.J. Wilson has been a spot starter on the defensive line. Quarless spent 2012 on I.R. but was a major contributor his first two seasons. Starks and Neal have been situational role players. The only true negative of this draft has been Neal who has not lived up to the potential of a second round pick. But given the value found later, all should be forgiven. This draft had quality and quantity.
Minnesota Vikings
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Cook | Virginia | CB | 34(2) | 12.77 | 13.87 | -45.00 |
| Toby Gerhart | Stanford | RB | 51(2) | 11.07 | 12.51 | -48.00 |
| Everson Griffen | USC | DE | 100(4) | 9.19 | 11.53 | -21.00 |
| Chris DeGeare | Wake Forest | OT | 161(5) | 7.92 | 11.17 | 22.00 |
| Nathan Triplett | Minnesota | LB | 167(5) | 1.04 | 1.49 | -51.00 |
| Joe Webb | UAB | QB | 199(6) | 5.31 | 8.00 | 25.00 |
| Mickey Shuler, Jr. | Penn State | TE | 214(7) | 4.58 | 7.08 | 36.00 |
| Ryan D’Imperio | Rutgers | LB | 237(7) | 3.33 | 5.35 | 45.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 55.21 (22nd)
- Total Weighted Score: 71.00 (22nd)
- Average Raw Score: 6.90 (29th)
- Average Weighted Score: 8.87 (28th)
- Total Draft Value: -37 (17th)
- Average Draft Value: -4.63 (17th)
Analysis: The Vikings traded out of the first round and selected Chris Cook with their first pick. Cook battled injuries his rookie campaign, didn’t see much playing time in 2011, and finally took over the starting corner role last season. Looking forward if he can stay healthy Cook appears to warrant the pick. Unfortunately up to this point he has not. Toby Gerhart was chosen in the second round to back up all world running back Adrian Peterson. Using a second round pick on someone who will never be more than a backup is not a luxury most teams can afford. Everson Griffen is a role player at best. Joe Webb was a late round quarterback drafted that has seen playing time at both wide receiver and quarterback. This late round pick signifies the only real value for the pick that the Vikings managed in 2010. None of the other picks are even on the roster. Hated rival Green Bay had a memorable 2010 draft. Vikings fans may just want to forget theirs.