Grading the 2010 NFL Draft – NFC South
By Doug Kitts
They say you cannot really grade a draft until at least three years have gone by. Players that look great in shorts may not translate well onto an NFL roster. Players that are great in year one might fizzle out by year three. Likewise, players that don’t even see the field in the first season may turn out to be complete studs by year three. So here we are in 2013 and the draft class of 2010 has had three seasons to prove their mettle and therefore “they” say that we can now grade this draft class. But how do we do this? Do we simply use the eyeball test? I am a nerd at heart and I love numbers. So I have attempted to quantify things beyond just an eyeball test. This is a far from perfect system. It simply gives us a jumping off point in the discussion.
Please check out this link for an explanation on how I came about these numbers and what they mean.
Here is the AFC East breakdown.
Here is the AFC North breakdown.
Here is the AFC South breakdown.
Here is the AFC West breakdown.
Here is the NFC East breakdown.
Here is the NFC North breakdown.
This is part seven…
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Weatherspoon | Missouri | LB | 19(1) | 16.58 | 17.39 | -21.00 |
| Corey Peters | Kentucky | DT | 83(3) | 17.57 | 21.28 | 55.00 |
| Mike Johnson | Alabama | G | 98(3) | 4.13 | 5.16 | -84.00 |
| Joe Hawley | UNLV | G | 117(4) | 10.95 | 14.22 | 17.00 |
| Dominique Franks | Oklahoma | CB | 135(5) | 7.92 | 10.64 | -3.00 |
| Kerry Meier | Kansas | WR | 165(5) | 2.50 | 3.55 | -38.00 |
| Shann Schillinger | Montana | S | 171(6) | 6.46 | 9.27 | 14.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 66.11 (19th)
- Total Weighted Score: 81.52 (19th)
- Average Raw Score: 9.44 (13th)
- Average Weighted Score: 11.65 (16th)
- Total Draft Value: -60 (18th)
- Average Draft Value: -8.57 (19th)
Analysis: In 2010 the Atlanta Falcons were operating without a second round pick due to a trade for Tony Gonzalez. As the trade solidified a hole on their offense, the Falcons needed to shore up parts of the defense. Their first two picks Weatherspoon and Peters have both developed into starters for Atlanta. Weatherspoon started off a little slower but has developed into a stalwart and the defensive captain. The next two picks were used on interior linemen. Neither has set the world on fire but Hawley has been a spot starter at both center and guard. The rest of the draft provided depth. Overall the draft was not flashy or spectacular but there are few glaring holes in it. There was really no need for a flashy draft as 2011 would provide all the flash.
Carolina Panthers
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | Notre Dame | QB | 48(2) | 10.40 | 11.67 | -59.00 |
| Brandon LaFell | LSU | WR | 78(3) | 13.94 | 16.71 | 11.00 |
| Armanti Edwards | Appalachian State | WR | 89(3) | 7.08 | 8.69 | -63.00 |
| Eric Norwood | South Carolina | LB | 124(4) | 5.83 | 7.68 | -42.00 |
| Greg Hardy | Ole Miss | DE | 175(6) | 15.67 | 22.66 | 121.00 |
| David Gettis | Baylor | WR | 198(6) | 11.19 | 16.84 | 102.00 |
| Jordan Pugh | Texas A&M | CB | 202(6) | 9.08 | 13.76 | 79.00 |
| Tony Pike | Cincinnati | QB | 204(6) | 0.21 | 0.32 | -32.00 |
| R.J. Stanford | Utah | CB | 223(7) | 5.83 | 9.15 | 56.00 |
| Robert McClain | Connecticut | CB | 249(7) | 7.75 | 12.67 | 109.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 86.99 (8th)
- Total Weighted Score: 120.15 (5th)
- Average Raw Score: 8.70 (18th)
- Average Weighted Score: 12.02 (13th)
- Total Draft Value: +282 (3rd)
- Average Draft Value: +28.20 (3rd)
Analysis: The Carolina Panthers 2010 draft was an attempt at quality resulting from quantity. The Panthers made ten draft picks, unfortunately only four of them were before the sixth round and none of them were in the first round. That’s not normally an recipe for success. To make matters worse, their first selection was spent on the free-falling quarterback Jimmy Clausen. Once thought of as a possible first round pick, Clausen fell all the way to the 48th pick in the draft. After seeing little time in his rookie season and failing to impress, the Panthers selected Cam Newton in the first round of 2011 and Clausen has not seen the field since. The third round saw two wideouts being taken. LaFell has taken over a starting role but Edwards has only seen limited time.
New Orleans Saints
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Robinson | Florida State | CB | 32(1) | 15.18 | 16.42 | -28.00 |
| Charles Brown | USC | OT | 64(2) | 8.18 | 9.52 | -72.00 |
| Jimmy Graham | Miami (FL) | TE | 95(3) | 16.02 | 19.90 | 50.00 |
| Al Woods | LSU | DT | 123(4) | 4.79 | 6.29 | -54.00 |
| Matt Tennant | Boston College | C | 158(5) | 7.50 | 10.52 | 15.00 |
| Sean Canfield | Oregon State | QB | 239(7) | 0.00 | 0.00 | -12.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 51.67 (24th)
- Total Weighted Score: 62.65 (24th)
- Average Raw Score: 8.61 (19th)
- Average Weighted Score: 10.44 (20th)
- Total Draft Value: -101 (24th)
- Average Draft Value: -16.83 (27th)
Analysis: First round pick Patrick Robinson came on slow in 2010. He later started part of the season in 2011 and took over full time in 2012. While the value of the draft pick was questionable early on, Robinson’s pick back to make much more sense by 2012. Charles Brown was drafted to eventually take over as a starting tackle. That plan really hasn’t worked out thus far although Brown will be forced into that role starting in 2013. So far the pick has not panned out. A part time player at tackle is something you would expect out of a late round pick, not a second. All is forgiven, however, with the selection of Jimmy Graham in the third round. Graham has had over 2.6000 yards receiving and 25 touchdowns in three years. Not bad for being the fifth tight end taken in the 2010 draft. None of the late round picks are still with the team. It’s never a bad thing to win a Super Bowl and then draft a Pro Bowl tight end a few months later. But if Robinson can continue to develop and Brown can solidify the offensive line this could go from being an “O.K.” draft to a great one.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Player | School | Position | Pick(Rd) | Raw Score | Weighted Score | Draft Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald McCoy | Oklahoma | DT | 3(1) | 18.29 | 18.43 | -21.00 |
| Brian Price | UCLA | DT | 35(2) | 11.17 | 12.16 | -62.00 |
| Arrelious Benn | Illinois | WR | 39(2) | 14.19 | 15.61 | -27.00 |
| Myron Lewis | Vanderbilt | CB | 67(3) | 6.39 | 7.48 | -92.00 |
| Mike Williams | Syracuse | WR | 101(4) | 19.79 | 24.89 | 90.00 |
| Brent Bowden | Virginia Tech | P | 172(6) | 0.00 | 0.00 | -71.00 |
| Cody Grimm | Virginia Tech | S | 210(7) | 10.01 | 15.37 | 99.00 |
| Dekoda Watson | Florida State | LB | 217(7) | 10.04 | 15.60 | 107.00 |
| Erik Lorig | Stanford | DE | 253(7) | 12.08 | 19.88 | 169.00 |
- Total Raw Score: 101.97 (4th)
- Total Weighted Score: 129.41 (4th)
- Average Raw Score: 11.33 (4th)
- Average Weighted Score: 14.38 (5th)
- Total Draft Value: +192 (6th)
- Average Draft Value: +21.33 (6th)
Analysis: The 2010 NFL Draft was dependent on a pair of pairs for the Buccaneers. With their first two picks, Tampa Bay selected a pair of defensive tackles. Gerald McCoy’s only issue in three years has been some injury woes. At times, however, he has out-shined fellow first round pick Ndamukong Suh. Brian Price, the Bucs second round selection, hasn’t been as productive. After one year as a starter in 2011 Price was jettisoned out as part of a new regime change. So after going 50/50 with one pair of players, Tampa Bay opted to try their hand at a pair of wideouts. Arrelious Been was the more touted prospect, taken in the second round. Off-the-field issues dropped Mike Williams from an early pick all the way to the fourth round. The results, however, tell a different story. Been struggled for three seasons, only catching 59 balls and 5 touchdowns. Williams exploded on the scene and has caught at least 63 passes every year. Tampa Bay found some good value at the end of the draft as all but Bowden has contributed to the team. The late value coupled with the absolute steal of Mike Williams propelled this draft into one of the better ones in 2010 with value up and down the board despite a few early failures with Price and Benn.