Grading the 2010 NFL Draft – NFC West


They say you cannot really grade a draft until at least three years have gone by. Players that look great in shorts may not translate well onto an NFL roster. Players that are great in year one might fizzle out by year three. Likewise, players that don’t even see the field in the first season may turn out to be complete studs by year three. So here we are in 2013 and the draft class of 2010 has had three seasons to prove their mettle and therefore “they” say that we can now grade this draft class. But how do we do this? Do we simply use the eyeball test? I am a nerd at heart and I love numbers. So I have attempted to quantify things beyond just an eyeball test. This is a far from perfect system. It simply gives us a jumping off point in the discussion.

Please check out this link for an explanation on how I came about these numbers and what they mean.

Here is the AFC East breakdown.
Here is the AFC North breakdown.
Here is the AFC South breakdown.
Here is the AFC West breakdown.
Here is the NFC East breakdown.
Here is the NFC North breakdown.
Here is the NFC South breakdown.

This is part eight…

Arizona Cardinals

PlayerSchoolPositionPick(Rd)Raw ScoreWeighted ScoreDraft Value
Dan WilliamsTennesseeDT26(1)13.5814.48-46.00
Daryl WashingtonTCULB47(2)18.5220.7324.00
Andre RobertsThe CitadelWR88(3)16.7620.5252.00
O’Brien SchofieldWisconsinDE130(4)9.8613.1315.00
John SkeltonFordhamQB155(5)12.6717.6774.00
Jorrick CalvinTroyCB201(6)2.503.78-3.00
Jim DrayStanfordTE233(7)8.8914.18107.00
  • Total Raw Score: 82.78 (10th)
  • Total Weighted Score: 104.50 (10th)
  • Average Raw Score: 11.83 (3rd)
  • Average Weighted Score: 14.93 (3rd)
  • Total Draft Value: +223 (4th)
  • Average Draft Value: +31.86 (2nd)

Analysis: If the goal in an NFL draft is to acquire contributors to your team, the Arizona Cardinals achieved that goal in 2010.  Dan Williams was supposed to be the cornerstone of the draft.   The large tackle was a rotational player in his rookie campaign.  In 2011 he would take the starting nose tackle role only to have his season cut short due to injury.  2012 was up and down as well.  Williams is penciled in as the starting nose tackle once again but this for a new regime and he’s probably nearing the end of his time to prove the investment worthy.  Daryl Washingston and Andre Roberts taken in the next two rounds have both lived up to their draft slot.  Washington took over as a starter part way into 2010 and has not looked back.  Roberts was starting by year 2.  Schofield and Dray have been situational players.  Schofield has been bitten by the injury bug and may be another one fighting for his job in view of a new regime.  John Skelton was a late round quarterback thrust into a starting role numerous times due to circumstance and not necessarily skill.  Regardless of the reason, a fifth round quarterback who starts 17 games in his first three seasons has earned his keep.  Overall the draft procured no real stars but value across the board.  It will be interesting to see how the class survives a new staff.

San Francisco 49ers

PlayerSchoolPositionPick(Rd)Raw ScoreWeighted ScoreDraft Value
Anthony DavisRutgersOT11(1)20.0020.563.00
Mike IupatiIdahoG17(1)22.0022.9514.00
Taylor MaysUSCS49(2)10.8912.25-52.00
Navorro BowmanPenn StateLB91(3)19.8824.4982.00
Anthony DixonMississippi StateRB173(6)10.0014.4159.00
Nate ByhamPittsburghTE182(6)7.2110.5531.00
Kyle WilliamsArizona StateWR206(6)7.4211.3260.00
Phillip AdamsSouth Carolina StateCB224(7)8.5213.3995.00
  • Total Raw Score: 105.92 (2nd)
  • Total Weighted Score: 129.93 (3rd)
  • Average Raw Score: 13.24 (2nd)
  • Average Weighted Score: 16.24 (2nd)
  • Total Draft Value: +292 (2nd)
  • Average Draft Value: +36.50 (1st)

Analysis:  If Arizona’s draft was good, the 49ers’ draft was great.  What’s your idea of a good draft?  To procure starters?  Check.  To procure stars?  Check.  To provide depth?  Check.  If not for the wasted second round pick of Taylor Mays this draft would be almost perfect.   Anthony Davis took over the right tackle spot in game one of 2010 and has been a fixture ever since.  Mike Iupati did the same with the left guard position.  To solidify 40% of your offensive line in one draft is more than most teams can hope for.  But San Francisco wasn’t done there.  Navorro Bowman may not be as well known as Patrick Willis but has been just as devastating.  Bowman and Iupati aren’t just starters, they are stars.  Those three picks make this draft successful by any stretch of the imagination.  Anthony Dixon and Kyle Williams are the icing on the cake that is the 2010 draft for San Francisco.  Dixon has been a role player at running back and Williams is the team’s return man.  All in all the San Francisco 2010 draft is the bar in which most other drafts are measured.  And it’s easy to see how the team has been one of the class of the league since.

Seattle Seahawks

PlayerSchoolPositionPick(Rd)Raw ScoreWeighted ScoreDraft Value
Russell OkungOklahoma StateOT6(1)18.7118.99-15.00
Earl ThomasTexasS14(1)22.7923.6112.00
Golden TateNotre DameWR60(2)13.5115.58-13.00
Walter ThurmondOregonCB111(4)6.868.80-44.00
E. J. WilsonNorth CarolinaDE127(4)0.420.55-105.00
Kam ChancellorVirginia TechS133(5)16.1721.6690.00
Anthony McCoyUSCTE185(6)11.2016.4991.00
Dexter DavisArizona StateLB236(7)3.335.3445.00
Jameson KonzKent StateFB245(7)0.210.345.00
  • Total Raw Score: 93.20 (7th)
  • Total Weighted Score: 111.35 (8th)
  • Average Raw Score: 10.36 (8th)
  • Average Weighted Score: 12.37 (10th)
  • Total Draft Value: +66 (10th)
  • Average Draft Value: +7.33 (10th)

Analysis:  Keeping with the theme of the NFC West 2010 drafts, the Seahawks put forth quite a showing themselves.  Russell Okung has the talent to warrant the sixth overall pick.  The only question is his ability to stay on the field.  In three seasons Okung has yet to play an entire season.  Earl Thomas, however, has had no such issues and has become a star at one safety position.  Kam Chancellor, selected in the fifth round, fills the other safety position, tremendous value for such a late pick.  Golden Tate has started at wide receiver but will move to a more natural fit at slot with the acquisition of Percy Harvin.  Walter Thurmond and Anthony have provided depth.  E.J. Wilson has been the only real disappointment and that’s not so bad considering he was a fourth round selection.  The Seahwaks ascension into the upper echelon can be traced back to the foundation laid by this 2010 draft.

St. Louis Rams

PlayerSchoolPositionPick(Rd)Raw ScoreWeighted ScoreDraft Value
Sam BradfordOklahomaQB1(1)18.7518.80-19.00
Rodger SaffoldIndianaOT33(2)17.2918.750.00
Jerome MurphySouth FloridaCB65(3)3.133.64-130.00
Mardy GilyardCincinnatiWR99(4)4.255.32-81.00
Michael HoomanawanuiIllinoisTE132(5)11.9215.9346.00
Hall DavisLouisiana–LafayetteDE149(5)0.210.29-86.00
Fendi OnobunHoustonTE170(6)0.831.19-54.00
Eugene SimsWest Texas A&MDE189(6)8.4412.5156.00
Marquis JohnsonAlabamaCB211(7)0.831.28-14.00
George SelvieSouth FloridaDE226(7)7.5011.8282.00
Josh HullPenn StateLB254(7)6.1910.2093.00
  • Total Raw Score: 79.34 (13th)
  • Total Weighted Score: 99.73 (13th)
  • Average Raw Score: 7.21 (27th)
  • Average Weighted Score: 9.07 (26th)
  • Total Draft Value: -107 (27th)
  • Average Draft Value: -9.73 (20th)

Analysis:  Sam Bradford is the St. Louis Rams’ 2010 NFL draft, fair or not.  Bradford represents the last early quarterback taken before the rookie salary slotting took effect.  Therefore Bradford represents the last truly great risk.  As of now, that risk is very real.  Bradford showed signs early on of being the franchise signal caller that the Rams hoped for.  But there has been little improvement and an increase in whispers.  Roger Saffold has had difficulty staying on the field and unfortunately he represents another pick where the “jury is out”.  Only two of the last nine picks are with the team any longer.  Sims and Hull are role players.  So to recap the Rams used eleven picks.  Two represent players that are still question marks overall.  Two are backups.  There is absolutely nothing else to show for this draft.  Especially in light of what the Rams division rivals have done, this is incredibly disappointing.