2016 NFL Draft Scouting Report: The Stay-Aways Prospects

2016 NFL Draft Scouting Report.

This is the fourth in a series of scouting report on various prospects in the 2016 NFL draft. This doesn’t mean that every prospect will get analyzed but this author hopes to go through some of the major cohorts of prospects: blue chippers, fake blue chippers, underrated prospects and guys that teams should stay away from. Today: the stay-aways

Shawn Oakman, DL Baylor
What he does well: When he’s focused, he uses his amazing combination of size and speed to literally swat blockers out of his way where he can then blow up plays. He might be the perfect physical specimen to ever play 5 tech end for a college team.

What he struggles with: If he runs into a blocker who isn’t intimidated by him and/or can handle his power, he doesn’t have a plan B. He has almost no developed pass rush skills outside of a bull rush. And even his bull rush is very raw as a technique.

Since he plays very high and doesn’t try to lower himself, a blocker can get under him and push him out of the play.

Red Flags: Multiple suspensions for off the field issues.
Draft range: Late 1st-early 3rd.
Pro comparison: A 5 tech version of Dion Jordan, multiple teams. Both were freakish athletes who didn’t have a plan B if their physical tools couldn’t overwhelm a blocker. Jordan is more of an edge guy while Oakman is a 5 tech.
Why is he a stay away type player? Besides the suspensions: what are you really getting? He struggled being a consistent player in college because he didn’t always face smaller blockers who didn’t know how to handle him. In the pros, just about every blocker he’ll face will know how to deal with him.

Just like Dion Jordan. It’s just not enough to be a physical freak in the NFL, you have to develop your skill set. If a smart defensive staff gets him and sits him until he learns, then he could be a superstar. If not and he plays early, then he’ll always be the great “never was.”

Christian Hackenberg, QB Penn State
What he does well: He has a big powerful arm and looks the part of an NFL Qb. He also had a couple productive seasons before 2015 hit. His arm talent is truly something to behold: its amazing.
What he struggles with: Mechanics, accuracy, dealing with a pass rush, eye level, footwork, interceptions….nothing major.
Red Flags: His agent and himself are openly throwing his head coach and offensive staff under the bus for his failures as a QB in 2015.
Draft range: Late 2nd to early 4th
Pro comparison: Derek Anderson, multiple teams. Both had big arms and a lot of flaws. Hackenberg has far more pure talent than Anderson did coming out of school, but it will be all for naught if he doesn’t sit and learn how to play QB.
Why is he a stay away type player? Where to begin? You can see the special arm talent with Hackenberg. It’s undeniable that he might be top 13 in the NFL just on sheer arm ability. But at some point, it doesn’t matter.

Hackenberg is putting it out there that his struggles were because of the offense and coaching staff and pundits like to say that he had a series of horrible offensive lines. Both might be valid arguments, but it doesn’t explain his propensity to get frantic and make awful decisions when rushed.

If a team takes him as a long term prospect with no expectation of having him make starts for them until 2017/2018 at the earliest, they could see some value in this pick. If he’s asked to start before the end of 2016, it’s going to get ugly.

Robert Nkemdiche, DL Ole Miss
What he does well: He has an amazing combination of size and short area quickness much like Leonard Williams in 2014. Sometimes, he’s completely unblockable by quality offensive linemen. He’s such a great athlete that he’s played on offense from time to time.

What he struggles with: Consistency. Sometimes he’s this absolute monster and sometimes he gets pushed out of the way by blockers with too much ease.

The Ole Miss coaches believe he’s too “Hollywood.” Which means he’s more focused on making the big play and being showy about it over following his assignments or doing the little things for the team.

He may also lack a true position in the NFL. He’s not stout enough for the 2, 4 or 5 line positions. Maybe as a 3 tackle or outside 5?

Red Flags: Does falling out of a window in a hotel with pot found in his room count?
Draft range: #4-#15 overall.
Pro comparison: A higher potential Cullin Jenkins, multiple teams. It’s just hard to see how and where Nkemdiche fits in a defense right now. He doesn’t have great pass rush skills, instead using his physical tools to get behind blockers.

He’s not stout or strong enough to play inside consistently, so this makes him a bit of an enigma. Jenkins was a similar type prospect coming out of school but found his niche switching where he played during a game to take advantage of matchups.

Why is he a stay away type player? Besides how his college career ended, there’s just far too much risk when it comes to Nkemdiche. There’s plenty of dazzling athletic defensive plays he makes on the tape, but there’s also as many plays where he screws up going for the big play and gets trapped out of play.

This isn’t to say that he’s not a first rounder, he is. But as a top 10 pick you have to have a support system around him to keep him focused on the field.

Cardale Jones, QB Ohio State
What he does well: Great mobility and very underrated touch on passes. At times, he can flash the ability to make any throw and lead his wideouts down the field. He’s not the typical dual threat QB: he has real size and strength which makes him almost Cam Newton-esque as a dual threat.

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What he struggles with: He struggles badly when rushed, he gives up too much ground and holds onto the ball far too long. You need to see him break down defenses in the film room because with that offense he’s only been looking for his designed options.

Like all spread QBs he also throws the ball far too high sometimes.

Red Flags: None that are apparent.
Draft range: late 3rd-late 4th.
Pro comparison: Much rawer Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco. Both came from non-traditional offenses, but Kaep was a long time starter while Jones never started a full season. Both need to be in an option which gives them the ability to scramble and have some designed runs.

Jones is far less pro ready as a pro prospect than Kaep was in 2010, but you can see the potential sometimes.

Why is he a stay away type player? Jones just isn’t ready for the NFL. He could have transferred elsewhere for a 5th year but decided to come out for the draft. This would have been a smart idea. He might have a decent arm and big body to be a dual threat QB with, but he’s so raw that it’s hard to see him as anything more than a developmental prospect that a team hopes to see something from in 3-4 seasons.

The odds are that he’ll have to move to WR or TE.

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