2016 Mock Draft 5: Picks #1-16

2016 NFL Mock Draft

Time for a full 1st round mock draft now that the big waves of free agency have crested. As always, this is not a mock draft of what this author would do. It’s a mock draft based on what the team is likely to do based on the current perceptions of the prospects in college football.

1. Tennessee Titans: Laremy Tunsil, OL Ole Miss.
Tunsil is the safe, unexciting pick. This is probably why the Titans are all but taking out ads that they’ll listen to offers for this pick. The problem is that no one wants either of the top quarterback prospects here and teams will wait on Bosa, Jack and Ramsey.

I was a big fan of his coming out, but Lewan just plays far too out of control to be relied on. He’s a flag magnet and can be baited into stupid plays and being overaggressive by a smart defender. Tunsil has some issues as well, but he’s probably not going to be another Lewan.

2. Cleveland Browns: Ezekiel Elliott, RB Ohio State
It looks like the Browns are going to roll with RG3 at quarterback. If they keep Joe Thomas, it could work but they need a credible running game to maximize Griffin’s potential with the team. Elliott could give them that from day 1 and he’s a local college star.

So why not defensive help? The Browns needs help basically everywhere on the defense except for corner. Hue Jackson and the front office are thinking long term and they need to know if RG3 is their future or not. Joey Bosa or Jalen Ramsey isn’t going to help them towards that goal.

3. San Diego Chargers: Joey Bosa, DL Ohio State
In this scenario Chargers will basically flip a coin between Bosa and Ramsey. Bosa probably is best in a 4-3 defense where he can play wide so playing him as a 3-4 end or as an edge rusher might not be the greatest idea.

How long they stick with the 3-4 is a good question, the coaching staff barely survived 2015 and a bad 2016 could mean major changes on both sides of the ball.

More from With the First Pick

4. Dallas Cowboys: Jalen Ramsey, DB Florida
The Cowboys might not need Ramsey with Byron Jones on the roster, but this is a pure talent pick. They can’t pass on a prospect who might be the most talented player in the draft. And with Jones, who appears to be a quality player and Ramsey who could be a superstar you make it work.

One way to make it work would be to start Ramsey at free safety and play Jones as the third safety/nickel corner. Jones could also move to corner better than Ramsey probably could do so, so having him out on the edge might be another way to make it work.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Vernon Hargreaves III, DB Florida
It’s going to be very tough for the Jags to decide between Jack, Stanley and Hargreaves. Right now, Hargreaves’ amazing pro day probably puts him back in the top 5 discussion.

Adding him to the collection of talent that they have on defense now could make an already exciting defense potent. The question for them will be if their safeties and linebackers can take advantage of having Fowler, Hargreaves, Odrick and Jackson.

6. Baltimore Ravens: Ronnie Stanley, OL Notre Dame
The Ravens are desperate for cheap help on their offensive line now even if Gene Monroe stays on the team(if you run an NFL team and are looking for an overpriced left tackle, give Ozzie Newsome a call). Stanley, even though he has a lot of of flaws as a prospect, helps stop the bleeding.

If taking him means that the Ravens can move Monroe to another team or right tackle, then the Ravens are better for the move. Keeping Flacco upright is the secret to his success. When he is successful. If Flacco is off his spot, then he’s going to struggle.

7. San Francisco 49ers: Myles Jack, LB UCLA
Not Goff or Wentz? Not when they can start to rebuild the defense with an exciting linebacker prospect with jaw dropping physical tools. It could be posturing but it would make sense for Chip Kelly to see if he can make Kaepernick work in his offense for a season but they would still take another dual threat quarterback in the next two rounds(Cardale Jones perhaps?).

A big question would be where to play Jack in their 3-4 defense. Brooks and Lynch combined for 13 sacks in 2015. That’s not bad but not great either. Neither really replaced Aldon Smith’s sack and pressure production. Jack could be a great fit on the outside but it seems like teaming him with Bowman inside where you can let Jack roam as a Joker backer would be best.

8. Los Angeles Rams(from Philadelphia via Miami-Philly gets their 2nd round pick back from Los Angeles): Jared Goff, QB California
And the first projected trade. The Eagles saw the top of their draft board all disappear and really can’t take a quarterback this high after promising Bradford and Daniel an open competition at quarterback. The Rams do have something that the Eagles would like back: the Eagles’ 2nd round draft pick they gave up for Bradford a year ago.

So why isn’t Goff going higher? Teams like his short and medium distance velocity but are very concerned about his arm strength deep. With the Rams, who want to dink and dunk a lot with their wideouts and rarely playing in bad weather, this is much less of a problem.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Andrew Billings, DL Baylor
Another pure talent pick. Billings has amazing upside and maximizes the crown jewel of their defense Gerald McCoy. Billings’ draft stock has yo-yoed from being a potential top 10 pick to being a late 1st and now after his pro day is back to being seen as a top 15 pick.

He’s probably best as a 0 tackle(nose tackle) in a 3-4 defense where his combination of leverage and strength could make him a Casey Hampton clone. For the Bucs and with McCoy taking up the double teams, his job would be to penetrate and help carry the so-so ends(as pass rushers).

10. New York Giants: Taylor Decker, OL Ohio State
Same rationale for why I mocked them taking Decker in my previous mock here. They could move Flowers to the right and play Decker on the left, or they can keep Decker on the right and give Flowers blocking help on the left.

They’re hoping that their carnival of free agent spending on the defensive line will net results, but much like the Ravens’ problem: if they can’t keep Eli Manning upright, he’ll struggle and the defense will be asked to do far too much.

11. Chicago Bears: DeForest Buckner, DL Oregon
A sheer talent pick for the Bears but one that would be very important for Fangio’s 3-4 defense. He has to have a good 5 tech or the entire defense isn’t going to work.

Buckner has the talent to be Fangio’s next Justin Smith but his mental tools need to catch up with physical abilities or he’ll always be limited as a player on the next level.

12. New York Jets(from New Orleans Saints, Saints get pick #20, Dee Milliner and Jace Amaro): Carson Wentz, QB North Dakota State
The Jets get jittery after seeing the Rams move up with Goff, so they make their own move using two spare parts from their roster than the Saints might have some interest in.

This won’t stop the Jets from bringing back Fitzpatrick, but they need a quarterback who could be the future. Fitzpatrick is barely “the present” for Gang Green.
13. Miami Dolphins(from Philadelphia): Darron Lee, LB Ohio State
The Phins need, and apologies for the cliche, playmakers on defense. They gave Suh all that money to be the focus of opposing offenses and they need to have players who can take advantage of it. Lee replaces Misi at the Will backer spot and should be asked to just attack all the time.

The Dolphins really could use help on the offense, but guard or running back is something that can wait.

14. Oakland Raiders: William Jackson III, DB Houston
The Raiders probably would be reticent to take another corner from Houston after DJ Hayden has been a major problem for them. Jackson doesn’t have Hayden’s medical red flags. He does have some questions whether he should play free safety or corner though.

15. Philadelphia Eagles(from Los Angeles): Laquon Treadwell, WR Ole Miss.
The return of Doug Pederson means the return of Andy Reid’s west coast offense. The problem is that the Eagles don’t have any wideouts who can play as flankers in that offensive style.

I’m not a fan of Treadwell and think that his lack of speed/acceleration will be why he’ll disappoint in the NFL, but as long as the Eagles aren’t expecting 1500 yards and a 17 yards per catch average, this is a solid pick.

16. Detroit Lions: Emmanuel Ogbah, EDGE/DL Oklahoma State
The Lions need a lot of things, but a left tackle, a new Megatron and a lockdown corner are probably not available and certainly aren’t in this mock draft.

What is available in this mock scenario is an End that came come in and start on day 1. Ogbah looks more comfortable on the left so Ansah can stay on the right.

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