2016 NFL Draft: Fox's Big Board 3.0

With the pro days winding down, let’s take a look at my latest top 20 prospects in the 2016 NFL Draft and who’s dropped out(and why).

1. Joey Bosa, DL Ohio State(last ranking: #1): Bosa still tops my board and it’s not close. He has the tolls that a team looks for in a complete defensive end. NFL.com compares him to Ryan Kerrigan. I don’t think that’s particularly fair. Bosa has better pass rush moves and speed than Kerrigan did coming out and Bosa looks like a better fit for down in a 3 point stance than Kerrigan has shown in the pros.

A better comparison would be Jared Allen in my mind. Bosa is as aggressive as Allen was, uses his hands as well and still holds contain very well despite his aggression.

2. Jalen Ramsey, DB FSU(last ranking: #4): Ramsey had an amazing pro day which he flashed his great physical attributes. Long term, I like Ramsey’s potential for a team more than I like Joey Bosa’s but I think that Ramsey has to go to the right team who plays the right system and keeps him at the right position. And that seems to be the basis for the disconnect right now in how his value is seen. Some teams and pundits have him listed as a corner(specifically that he’d play outside corner in a man press) and some teams have him as a hybrid free safety who plays the slot receiver or deep.

Personally, any team who plays him as a press outside corner is asking for a wasted pick. Ramsey is at his best when he can fuse his instincts with his ability in space and jumping skill to close down a part of the defensive backfield.

3. Ezekiel Elliott, RB Ohio State(last ranking: #2): Elliot didn’t drop in my eyes, Ramsey just leapfrogged him. There’s been a lot of comparing Gurley, who was fantastic as a rookie to Elliott. I’d put Elliott right up there with Gurley. When the only valid criticism is that he played in a zone read system meant to free him up from run blitzers, then he might be more of a complete back than Gurley will be.

4. DeForest Buckner, DL Oregon(last ranking: #11): I’m becoming a bigger and bigger fan of Buckner by watching the film of him more and more. And in that film work, I see a rawer Calais Campbell who if can be taught to play lower could be better than Campbell.

There’s been a lot of talk about a team looking for a 5/3 tech lineman making a move for the Jets’ disgruntled star Mo Wilkerson. The Bears have specifically been mentioned, but if I were them I would probably rather have Buckner.

5. Myles Jack, LB UCLA(last ranking: NR): He answered the questions that I had, for the most part. I still worry about his on again, off again effort on the field but the potential he has is truly breath taking. At this point, the lowest I could see him going would be 10th.

6. Jared Goff, QB California(last ranking: #3): I like Goff, but I don’t think that he’s an Andrew Luck type prospect. He’s probably a Matt Ryan level prospect: not quite a franchise quarterback but nothing to sneeze at. And Ryan isn’t a bad comparison for Goff: both don’t have the greatest arm strength and need to go to a dome or good weather team. That said, in the right system on the right team Goff could be a quality starter for years.

7. Taylor Decker, OL Ohio State(last ranking: #12): Yes, I have Decker as my #1 offensive lineman. Tunsil and Stanley have more potential and raw athletic ability but Decker is more ready to play Day 1. He might be this season’s Brandon Scherff who went from left tackle but due to shorter arms moved to right guard but Scherff did get all-pro votes as a rookie at guard. That’s extremely difficult to do for any rookie and Decker could repeat the feat at right tackle as a rookie. He’s just a tough, smart player who teams love to find in the draft.

8. Vernon Hargreaves III, DB Florida(last ranking: #5): While I still think Hargeaves is the best pure corner in the draft, the concerns about his size are well founded. Teams were often successful against him when they used a taller wideout or split out a joker(tight end out wide) and threw them a jump ball. This is something that Hargeaves will have to learn to deal with or teams will have a book to use against him. That said, he’s much like Joe Haden as a prospect and neither him(Haden) or Revis have let their lack of size hold them back from being arguably the best corners in football.

9. Laremy Tunsil, OL Ole Miss(last ranking: #7): He gets compared to Tyron Smith because he has good size and great quickness for a left tackle prospect. I just don’t see it. Smith isn’t just some finesse blocker for the cowboys like Tunsil was for Ole Miss. He knows how to use technique to overcome his lesser power and Tunsil doesn’t know how to do that yet. HIs problems are fixable but I don’t see him as a top left tackle like Smith has become.

10. Josh Doctson, WR TCU(last ranking: #8): I’m big fan of his. If he can put on some weight and learn how to deal with a press, then Doctson could be one of the best players from this draft. It’s not the circus catches he made at TCU, what’s impressed me most is how he’s been able to take subpar passes from Boykin and due to his acceleration or ability to high point the ball, make them into catches. He has an unusually big catch radius for a wideout his size and knows how to get a defender turned around when he needs the space to work. That’s not easy to find in college and especially not in one of those spread/veer offenses.

11. Andrew Billings, DL Baylor(last ranking: #10): Billings might be a draft pick who fills a role similar to what Bennie Logan does for the Eagles: a leverage based 0 or 1 defensive tackle. However, Billings has better physical tools than Logan and ultimately Billings could be just a much better player than Logan.

12. William Jackson III, DB Houston(last ranking: #13): Big corners who can run and turn as well as WJ3 can are very rare and teams will be very intrigued by him. The flip side is that WJ3 can get very grabby as a cover guy(7 penalties in 2015) and doesn’t like to take on blockers.

13. Sheldon Rankins, DL Louisville(last ranking: #16): A team takes him to play the 3 or 1 for them as a pure penetrator. It’s hard not to watch the tape of him against Florida State and not see a lineman who can contribute as a starter at either spot in the NFL.

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14. Emmanuel Ogbah, DL Oklahoma State(last ranking: #6): I still see a lot of good in Ogbah’s game, but I’m worried that he needs work with his motivation after watching the tape of him against the top opponents he’s faced. He might be a prospect who mentally checks out somewhat when frustrated. That’s concerning.

15. Ryan Kelly, OL Alabama(last ranking: NR): He’s a very pro ready center prospect who didn’t give up a sack his final two years at Bama. And after Bryan Stork’s success with the Patriots, teams should be willing to give younger centers a sooner chance.

16. Darron Lee, LB Ohio State(last ranking: #20): He’s not Lavonte David and won’t be until he bulks up somewhat but a team is drafting him hoping that you’re getting a disruptive Will linebacker who blows up plays like Lance Briggs used to so that another defender can tackle and clean up for him. His best talent will be as a blitzer and could thrive in this.

17. Jason Spriggs, OL Indiana(last ranking: #19): Yes, I have Spriggs ahead of Ronnie Stanley. They both are very similar in terms of flaws and strengths, although I think Spriggs is ready to play right now in the proper system(zone block). I’m just worried that Stanley is a lower talent Lane Johnson and will always struggle with bull rushers. Spriggs may never be significantly better, but since he appears to have done better putting on upper body strength than Stanley has in the last 2 seasons, I’ll bet that Spriggs adjusts faster and better to the NFL.

18. Shaq Lawson, DL Clemson(last ranking: NR): There’s better edge rushers in this draft, and there’s better defensive ends in this draft. But if you’re running a 3-4 hybrid front, which are becoming more and more common or run a 4-3 with a LEO it’s hard to see how a team could do much better than Lawson after Bosa and the top guys. He’s quick enough to play the edge and stout enough to play End.

19. Karl Joseph, DB West Virginia(last ranking: NR): I’m a big fan of Joseph. He was arguably the most complete defensive back in the draft and if he hadn’t torn his ACL late in the West Virginia season he would have been in consideration as a top 7 pick. He’s the total package at safety but he needs to put on some muscle to play strong safety like he will want to play it like. Some smart team is going to team him with a strong safety who can cover and never regret it probably.

20. Ronnie Stanley, OL Notre Dame(last ranking: NR): I’m still not big on Stanley relative to how he’s perceived for this draft, but I think his career track is most likely to resemble Eugene Monroe, another underpowered fast left tackle. That’s a perfectly fine left tackle to have on a franchise, but he’ll never be the dominating player that some teams really need at left tackle. Stanley makes it up here because even with his flaws, I don’t think he’s going to become the next Jason Smith.

Who dropped out and why:
Mackensie Alexander, DB Clemson. I like Alexander, but I’m very worried his cockiness will get him into trouble. He doesn’t do anything better than William Jackson III or Hargeaves and I think he’ll struggle in zones for awhile.

Kenny Clark, DL UCLA: A lot of draftniks I talked to liked Clark but pointed out a couple games where he struggled badly. And you know what? They’re right, Clark has some issues to address.

Jonathan Bullard, DL Florida: I’m still a fan of Bullard but he’s just too one dimensional to consider a top 20 player. He’s a run stopping 3 tech tackle that will make an NFL team very happy. That’s about it.

Hunter Henry, TE Arkansas: He’s still the best TE in this class but his athleticism just isn’t good enough to be worthy of a 1st round pick or consideration as a top 20 pick.

Derrick Henry, RB Alabama: Henry is another prospect that I’m still a fan of, but the difference between him and any number of running back prospects(outside of tools) isn’t as big as anyone thinks.

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2016 NFL Draft: Fox’s Big Board 3.0

By jonfox | Apr 7, 2016

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