Top 5 lists: 2016 NFL draft

The 2016 NFL Draft has a lot of interesting story lines based on specific prospects.

With the draft almost upon us, let’s take a quick look at a few short lists of players. Specifically, which players are in my opinion, going to be the most likely to become a quality NFL player, which have the most risk to become busts and which players would be the best picks on Day 3.

5 near locks to be a quality NFL player

1-Laremy Tunsil, OL Ole Miss.

I don’t think that Tunsil will live up to his hype but on the other hand I see his bust potential to be extremely low. Whomever drafts him probably is getting Russell Okung/Ryan Clady and not Joe Thomas or Trent Williams and as long as the team who takes him accepts that, then he’ll be a great pick.

2-Chris Jones, DL Miss State.

He was a highly recruited player coming out of high school and sort of lived up to his hype. He never was a dominating force on the defensive line, but he was Fletcher Cox-lite: a force in the interior who teams had to account for on every play. He made plays, stuck to his assignments and let others rack up the sacks and fumble recoveries. The only way that I can see him busting out in the NFL and not becoming a 4-7 season starter is if whomever drafts him misuses him and thinks that they’re getting a pass rusher like his former teammate Preston Smith.

3-Joshua Garnett, OL Stanford

Garnett probably is this year’s Laken Tomlinson, Gabe Jackson and Larry Warford: a big, thick hipped and slower footed guard who goes on day 2 and makes a team very happy. I think that quicker interior pass rushers will give him fits until he fixes his lazy footwork, but his raw power and strength are amazing. He won’t take much coaching up to make him into a regular starter.

More from With the First Pick

4-Nick Martin, OL Notre Dame

He’s not his brother Zach but he has the potential to be almost as good. He can play both guard and center in the NFL and should be a regular starter for whomever takes him. He doesn’t move that well when asked to pull, so offenses have to keep him in the box as much as possible. Part of this was from a major knee injury in 2013 which he still hasn’t seen his athleticism recover from.

5-Jordan Jenkins, LB UGA.

He looks the classic outside linebacker that teams like New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Green Bay look for: smart, tough, won’t make many mistakes and can start tomorrow if they needed him to. He’s just not going to have much potential growth and he’s more of a clean up pass rusher than an attacker who can fluster the quarterback. But I have him above Leonard Floyd right now.

5 near locks to become busts

1-Carson Wentz, QB North Dakota St.

His passing numbers drop dramatically when blitzed(red flag), he only really played 2 seasons for an FCS school(red flag), he played at an FCS school and I can’t find any proof that any bigger programs ever tried to lure him away from North Dakota State(big red flag). And all that has to matter. The draftniks slobber all over him but why? His tape, when clean in the pocket looks good but he folds like a lawn chair when pressured. And he never faced any quality defenses.

Why is he a top 10 pick again? He’s all potential, but starting him early probably would be a disaster for whomever does that. That said, if he’s not rushed out onto the field early and sits for a couple seasons then he could become a good starter but this is the NFL and no one picking high enough to draft Wentz is smart enough to do that.

2-Leonard Floyd, LB UGA.

Another “potential” guy. Floyd has been touted as the “next superstar” since he graduated high school. And then after he left Military Academy. And then after his freshman year and after all his seasons at Georgia. But he’s not like Andrew Billings, who’s not even 21 yet and is still finding himself and growing into his body. Floyd is 24 and taking him is a major gamble. He’s still raw with all his skills so whomever drafts him can’t expect that much of a full return until year 3.

3-Connor Cook, QB MSU

His teammates were reportedly ripping Cook’s leadership and personality to the coaches and scouts at the senior bowl. Now there’s reports that Cook is turning off teams with his cavalier attitude towards everything. After he went down late in the season, Sparty didn’t miss much of a beat. I don’t have him listed as anything but a late Day 3 pick at this point. There’s just not much to work with.

4-Vonn Bell, S Ohio State

Bell has a couple NFL level skills, especially if he can wall a shorter wideout but he doesn’t have the speed or acceleration to play single high safety, he watches the quarterback much more than he watches his assignments(because he’s looking for the big play instead of doing his job) and he’s not going to give a team much as a hitter/tackler. He’s, at best, a 3rd safety/special teamer.

5-Artie Burns, DB Miami

He’s been through a lot off the field and he has some good ball skills, but that’s about it. He’s very undisciplined on the field, his technique is horrible and will always go for the big play instead of doing his job. Even if he went to the right team who could stash and coach him up, I just don’t see the reward for the risk.

5 Best Day 3 picks:

1-Keith Marshall, RB Georgia.

He has struggled with injuries throughout his career and never got enough playing time because he played at the same time as two UGA legends at running back. He flashed amazing acceleration and speed at the combine, so there are tools to work with.

2-Elandon Roberts, ILB Houston

Roberts will have to make it on special teams, but he’s a tackling machine who will give a team great leadership on and off the field and basically live in the film room. This is how he’s made up for not being a big or fast linebacker on the field. But he did run well at the combine and when you watch the tape, at worst he’s a run stopping inside linebacker who can start if the line can keep the blockers off of him.

3-Yannick Ngakoue, OLB Maryland

If he goes to a team who runs a pure 3-4 front who has a pair of good outside linebackers in front of him, Ngakoue could thrive as a situational rusher who comes in on the sub package to flash that speed and acceleration he has. He probably will never become a great starter since he lacks a lot of the tools that a consistent pass rusher needs to be good. But as a matchup player who the coaches use sparingly, he could become a quality pick.

4-Jake McGee, TE Florida.

I don’t quite know why McGee isn’t getting as much attention as he deserves. He was a quality pass blocker and pass catcher with the hands that teams drool over. The question for him is improving his run blocking, which can be inconsistent. Also, he has a medical red flag after breaking his leg in 2014.

5-Anthony Zettel, DE Penn State

Zettel has the game tape, mental makeup and strength that teams look for in a defensive lineman. The problem is that it’s hard to figure out where to play him. He’s too short and squat to play End. He’s too light, especially in his lower body to play tackle. So either he’s a very stiff End or he’s a situational 3 tackle that you have just try to push the guard backwards with. I think that he could bulk up and play that 3 role pretty well even just situationally. He clearly is strong enough to play in the NFL and his work ethic makes him someone that a team will want around.