2017 NFL Draft: Top 3 Quarterback Prospects

1. CJ Beathard, QB Iowa
I’m a big fan of Beathard’s. He has so many pro level tools, that it’s hard not to see him as a top 5 pick. Most impressive of all is that he plays in an offense where they ask him to do a lot of the little things that an NFL quarterback would do: Ferentz’s offense is now shotgun based, but he asks his Qbs to audible often(which is relatively rare in college football outside of the option offenses holding up signs so that the coaches take this responsibility out of their quarterback’s hands), go through his progressions instead of looking to run and take what the defenses give him.

Too many college quarterbacks are physical freaks who freeze defenses with their legs so it becomes too easy for them. Beathard can run very effectively but its usually when all his other options are covered.

Another pro level tool of his is that when he’s rushed, his eye level rarely leaves his targets. One thing that young quarterbacks usually have to fix is that they panic when rushed and start looking at the blitzers instead of where to put the ball.

Beathard doesn’t seem to have this issue. His ball placement needs some work, but more often than not he can put it into a tight window. The one issue I have with his 2015 tape is that he’ll go for the easier throw more often than not. That’s probably what his coaches are telling him to do, but he needs to take some more chances.

Another minor issue I have with him which is related to Beathard “taking the easier throw” is that a lot of his production came form YAC(yards after the catch). This is largely due to his offense so when he’s evaluated, one cannot look at his raw stats and must see his tools.

I’d compare him in play to Eli Manning. Mechanically clean as a passer, a nice arm and makes good decisions. And would rate him as a top 5 pick headed into the 2016 CFB season.

2. Chad Kelly, QB Ole Miss
While Beathard is the more pro ready prospect, Kelly could become the much better passer when it’s all said and done. His arm talent dwarfs Beathard’s, doesn’t have the issues with ball placement that Beathard has and has that mobility and toughness to extend a play long enough to find an open target.

It’s really hard to find an NFL prospect since Andrew Luck who had this amazing combination of arm talent, natural passing ability and instincts. Watch the tape of how he picked apart the Alabama defense in 2015 and you’ll see why the NFL scouts are going to go gaga over him.

That said, Chad Kelly’s biggest nemesis will always be Chad Kelly. He was kicked off of his high school team and the school he originally committed to(Clemson). Multiple programs refused to have anything to do with him.

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And even after Ole Miss gave him a shot after a year of JUCO, Kelly thanked them by getting arrested again. His problem isn’t criminality, it’s that he thinks he’s entitled to the world probably because he grew up as Jim Kelly’s nephew in Buffalo. And after Johnny Manziel, teams are going to want to interview him until they think that they know his true personality.

His entitlement is also his biggest issue on the field. It’s why one week, Kelly can pick apart a great Alabama defense and another he struggles with Memphis as he did in 2015.

This upcoming 2016 season will be critical to his draft stock: he won’t have Tunsil, Treadwell and a number of other quality players around him so he’s going to have to carry the offense almost by himself. If he can do that and be more emotionally consistent, then he could be a top 5 pick as well.

I’d compare him in play to Ben Roethlisberger. He has a big arm, knows how to use it and knows how to keep the play going long enough to find a target. And I would rate him as a top 15 pick.

3. DeShaun Watson, QB Clemson
I’ll predict that Watson will be the most controversial prospect in the 2017 NFL draft. To paraphrase what someone once said about the French Revolution, there’s something for everyone to claim in Watson. He’s clearly got a good level of natural arm talent and can do well placing the ball-especially deep.

He also is growing as a player at a staggering pace. On the other hand, the offense he plays in is so limited in the decision making that they ask the quarterback to make, that Watson looks like a high talent project. It was very often in 2015 that Watson held onto the ball for more than a few seconds. And that’s troubling.

Unless Watson takes some big steps forward as a passer in 2016, he is not pro ready when he comes out for the 2017 draft. His mechanics need a lot of work, especially his footwork. He looks to run far too much(although this could be a function of the offense he runs) and he needs to improve his arm strength for a defense to take the threat of medium routes seriously.

Right now, just about everything he does is a short pass off of a play action or a deep route outside of the hashes.

All that said, a smart NFL team can do something with this. He needs to sit for a season or two and just learn and that’s why it would be best if he wasn’t a top 20 pick. There would be too much pressure on the team to start him before he was ready. Ideally, he would go to a team with a Kubiak style offense where he could playaction and bootleg a lot.

And this is why Watson reminds me of a lesser talent Robert Griffin III, who also should have gone to a Kubiak offense team(although one could say that Mike Shanahan should have taught him that offense but that’s for another day). And I have him rated as a 2nd round pick.

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