2017 Top 10 Mock Draft
By jonfox
This early 2017 NFL Mock Draft is very quarterback heavy.
While I did curse the concept of doing predictive mock drafts and anything more than a top 10 mock draft, I did also say that I was going to still do Top 10 mock draft and using my evaluations of players and team needs. This will be my first mock draft for 2017 along those lines. Until the official draft order for the top 10 is set, I will use the current Vegas super bowl odds to order the teams at the bottom.
1. Cleveland Browns: Chad “Swag” Kelly, QB Ole Miss
If the Browns are picking this high, it’s because Kessler and RG3 aren’t the answer for them at quarterback. Hue Jackson will need that answer from somewhere else or he’ll just be the latest casuality of the black hole known as the Cleveland Browns.
Kelly has the most natural talent of any quarterback in this draft and right now should be a no-brainer #1 overall pick. Cleveland might be very concerned about Kelly’s off the field issues in the post-Manziel era. A change at the top would shake up this entire mock draft.
2. Tennessee Titans: Myles Garrett, DL/OLB/EDGE Texas A&M
Orakpo and Morgan combined for 11.5 sacks last year. For a defense that’s completely dependent on edge pressure they need a lot more. Garrett is the premier pass rusher in this draft and could become the next Von Miller.
Some scouts have said that they think Garrett isn’t just the best pass rusher in college football, but he’s the most talented player in all of college football. That’s hard to argue with. He doesn’t seem to have many red flags or concerns about his game.
3. San Francisco 49ers: CJ Beathard, QB Iowa
Chip Kelly needs a quarterback and I think that we can all dispense with this notion that he wants or ever has wanted a dual threat quarterback to run his offense since he’s benched(and tried to deal) Kaepernick and didn’t even make an offer for guys like RG3. He wants a passer like he had in Bradford and Foles: smart with good decision making.
Beathard would be the best fit for him. He’s experienced in a shotgun based offense that also asked him to make NFL level decisions.
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The concern with Beathard is that he doesn’t always put the ball into the best place for his wideouts. This seems to be a bigger problem on deep throws, but short/medium passes don’t seem to have any issues with this.
Beathard isn’t a completely clean prospect which makes it tough to pin point where he could land in a mock draft.
4. San Diego Chargers: Tim Williams, EDGE Alabama
Williams would be a top 2 pick in almost any other draft. He’s just picking the one where he’ll have to outshine Myles Garrett and there’s almost no prospects in this draft that can do that. And I’m usually very cautious of Alabama defenders-especially defensive linemen. But when you watch the tape of Williams, he’s an absolute monster out there.
This name might be a bit inflammatory to use with him, but he reminds of of Derrick Thomas: another big shouldered Bama rusher who also had that combination of hand use, speed and bend to make blockers look bad.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Cam Robinson, OL Alabama
If the Bucs are picking this high, it’s because Winston regressed due to a poor offensive line. They have the talent at wideout and running back if Doug Martin isn’t disgruntled so either Winston’s rookie year would have been a mirage(to some extent) or he was running for his life.
Robinson is a true left tackle for Winston, which is what they need. Donovan Smith got away with protecting his blind side in 2015 because they played all sorts of games: tight end help, running back chips and sliding the protection left so that the guard could help out. This relieves them of this burden.
6. Detroit Lions: Mike Williams, WR Clemson
This is another “if team X is picking this high, it’s because Y” pick. If the Lions are this bad, it’s because they couldn’t replace Calvin Johnson. I have Williams as a my top wideout: he has size, speed, quickness and toughness. The only question will be if he struggles at all coming off of a severe neck injury.
What won’t happen is the Lions dumping Stafford and going after a new franchise quarterback. The coaching staff and GM would be on too thin of ice to risk that.
7. Cleveland Browns(from Philadelphia):Leonard Fournette, RB LSU
Cleveland would do backflips if they ended up with 2 top 7 picks. And they would have a chance to lay in a QB/RB combo that they could build around for years.
I don’t quite get why Fournette is so looked down upon in the draftnik community. Everyone looks for a reason to dislike him, criticize his game or make horrible pro comparison for him. He’s the real deal. And should go higher than this.
8. New Orleans Saints: Christian McCaffrey. RB Stanford
McCaffrey is another player I don’t understand the nitpicking of in the draftverse. He’s got just about everything that a team would want in a runningback. He has speed, quickness, toughness, decent size and versatility. Yet some draftniks don’t even have him as a 3rd round pick.
He would seem like a great fit for the Saints considering his pass blocking and receiving skills. Payton loves guys that he can do multiple things with.
9. Atlanta Falcons: Rod Johnson, OT FSU
Jake Matthews is a solid guy but he might be a better fit over at right tackle. Johnson has the foot quickness to man the blind side. And, again, if the Falcons are picking this high the primary reason was because their offense continued to struggle-especially in protecting Matt Ryan.
Assuming this, probably also means that their offensive staff would be let go so a powerful tackle like Zach Banner could also be the pick. Which would keep Matthews at left tackle and Banner would play right.
10. Miami Dolphins: Brad Kaaya, QB Miami(Fl)
Say again one more time with me….if the Dolphins are picking here, it’s because….Ryan Tannehill didn’t improve with Adam Gase running the offense. That might be unlikely, but it is rather plausible. And they would then seek to deal him to a team looking for a new passer(Washington? Chicago? New Orleans?).
I’m not 100% sold on Kaaya, but he doesn’t have to take many steps in 2016 to get drafted this high.
My biggest concern with him is how he deals with the blitz. His QB rating was 24% lower in 2015 when he faced more than 5 rushers(aka when he was blitzed). And the tape bears this out. He makes too many bad decisions with a hand in his face.