Teams set for regression in the 2016 NFL season

Which NFL teams could regress from their 2015 seasons?

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals were a couple dumb penalties away from winning a playoff game and potentially going even farther. They go into 2016 with a lot of uncertainty. They were stripped of a lot of talent both on and off the field. Losing Hue Jackson to their Ohio rivals probably will end up being their biggest hole to fill.

12 wins seems extremely difficult for them to repeat in 2016, even with an easier schedule. More than anything else, they need contributors from all that young talent that they’ve been collecting and they need to show teams something new that they can execute very well.

Their biggest concern on the field will be the receiving corps. Teams will go from double teaming AJ Green to triple teaming him, especially if the always hurt Tyler Eifert gets hurt again. Trying to replace Sanu and Jones will be more difficult than anyone expects and doing it with a collection of rookies and castoffs will be difficult to pull off early.

Predicted record: 8-8. They have enough now to not having a losing record, but I just don’t see

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it with them this year. If Atkins, Dalton or AJ Green go down, they could have a lost season.

Houston Texans: The Texans, players and coaches, are in a make or break season. With so much cash invested in their offensive spine and a big collection of defensive talent, there’s an expectation that they have to win a playoff game this year(or at least be competitive in one) or everyone will be gone.

They shelled out a ton to bring in Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller but both players-while talented-have been extremely inconsistent so far in their career.

Neither one has shown that they can be the starter for 16 games for various reasons. And the Texans will be depending on them to be cornerstones for them to build around.

Defensively, Jadeveon Clowney has a chance to step up with JJ Watt due to miss some time because of minor surgery. When Clowney has been healthy, he’s been a very effective player for the Texans but they need to commit to keeping him as an edge attacker instead of dropping him into coverage.

If he can contribute regularly and with the return of Watt, the defense could be very good.

My problem with them headed in 2016 is that there’s far too many questions about them. And with improved teams in the division(Jacksonville and Indianapolis) it’s hard to see them making the playoffs again in 2016.

Predicted record: 7-9. I could be wrong, but I suspect the offense will struggle even with all the money they spent and the defense won’t be good enough to carry the team again.

Washington Redskins. The Redskins surprised a lot of people with their NFC East in 2015. Kirk Cousins came in for an “injured” RG3 and put up 4000+ yards. But there’s not a lot of expectation that they can repeat their 9 win season.

The argument against the Redskins repeating their win total boils down to 2 things:
1-The defense, despite signing Josh Norman from Carolina, took big steps backwards talent-wise.
2-Kirk Cousins struggled against good teams and they play a lot of good teams in 2016.
To take on these arguments in order, let’s start with #1. Their defensive talent took big steps backwards, especially in the front 7. Their defensive line will be far less talented and without Junior Galette they’re going to need Preston Smith to become Aldon Smith(on the field) to have an effective rush on the passer. They did make improvement to the secondary and have arguably the most talented group of cornerbacks in the NFL(at least on paper). But it’s hard to see them being an effective unit throughout the season and teams should be able to run all day long on them.

As for #2: Cousins’ QB rating and stats were all clearly worse in 2015 when he played against one of the 5 opponents who finished 2015 with a winning record. But this could be irrelevant since they’re not playing those same teams from 2015.

That said, they’re playing a schedule full of talented, well coached teams that could give Cousins fits. Even if those teams regress, they have a full year of tape on Cousins and an offense which didn’t add any talent that will be expected to contribute in 2016.

Also with Desean Jackson, Cousins, Garcon and Jordan Reed(who signed an extension in the offseason but needs to produce to ever see the real money in his deal) all having contract issues, the disease of me could be a big factor here as well.

The Redskins have too much talent to have a disastrous season but it’s hard to see them having a winning record unless they get a lot of external help. If their opponents are as good or better than they were last season, then the odds of a disaster of a season rise.

Predicted record: 7-9. It was really close between 6-10/7-9. If they get bit by the injury bug, 5 is possible.

New York Jets: I really like Todd Bowles. He’s a hell of a coach and defensive mind. But I just don’t get what the heck their front office is doing. Clady is a nice replacement for D’Brick but for a team that had a short term QB option in Ryan Fitzpatrick, their solution going into 2016 for the offense and offensive issues was to short arm Fitzpatrick and add a raw rookie prospect at the position in the hopes(or more accurately dreams) that Matt Forte and nothing else would lead to better play at the quarterback spot?

So this throws everything back to the defense and asks the Jets defense-for what seems like the 10th straight season-to carry the team while the offense sputters with risky talent. They squeezed out 10 wins but couldn’t make the playoffs. And it’s hard to see their offseason as anything but a regression.

To avoid a regression in wins, they’re going to need Forte to turn back the clock and contribute massively in the receiving game as well. Also, they need to find an edge presence who will take the pressure off of their defensive line or teams will just use their blueprint from 2015 to mute their line’s impact on a game.

Predicted record: 6-10. Fitzpatrick won’t look nearly as good without Chris Ivory grinding away yards and clock.

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