With The First Pick
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Fox’s 2016 Season Preview Part 1: NFL Trends

By jonfox

Jun 7, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo watch New England Patriots mini camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 7, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo watch New England Patriots mini camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Where is the NFL going?

One of the most overlooked things in NFL journalism is trends. Pundits and writers focus on the right now and the future rather than seeing where the league and teams have come from an why.

It is now clear that one of the biggest changes in the history of the NFL happened in the summer of 2004, when in reaction to the Patriots’ defense(and reportedly the Colts’ whining about it) they instituted the illegal contact penalty.

Teams could no longer just chuck a wideout all the way down the field, which was legal as long as the defender never broke contact. Ty Law will probably make the Hall of Fame thanks to his skill in doing this.

This led to a fast rise in the passing games. In 2003, before the new rules came into place 7 teams passed for 3500 or more yards. In 2015 27 teams did so. Defenses have tried to react to this by switching to 3-4 defenses to generate more of a pass rush.

In 2003, there were 1092 sacks given up. In 2012, that number had risen to 1295. QB hurries have risen even more: in 2003, there were 3312 hurries. In 2015, there were over 5500.

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So where does the league start going from here? The answer lies in the draft. in 2017 there almost certainly will be the greatest draft class of running backs in the modern era of the NFL. Teams can pluck out a potential 3 down back for themselves as late as the early 3rd round.

Teams, no matter the allure of passing the ball, will have to use this talent and it’s a great counter move to the rise of the 3-4/34 hybrid defenses.

The Patriots gave the Steelers and Ravens fits when they could go with 2 quality TEs to put 7 blockers in the run game but forced them to account for Gronk and Hernandez on play action or passing routes.

This will be the nucleus of the trend in the NFL and Belichick will be, as always, ahead of the curve: teams are going to go with 2 quality running backs and pound the crap out of those 3-4 and hybrid fronts.

Belichick, as seen in the photo above, held practices with the Naval Academy. They run an option-run heavy offense which would give the Patriots absolutely nothing positive to compete in the NFL. Unless run heavy offenses and option spreads are future trends that Belichick sees coming in the NFL. This would make a lot of sense with the rise of quality running backs and dual threat quarterbacks.

This move towards two back sets isn’t just happening in New England, it been a feature in Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Carolina. The Panthers are using Newton as that 2nd runner but it’s the same basic strategy.

And New England has been using 1 runner as the grinding back(Blount) while another is used on passing routes, screens and on the flanks(Dion Lewis/James White).

The counter move for this by defenses will probably be abandoning the 3-4 front in favor of a traditional 4-3 front with 6 and 7 Ends, a 1 and a 2 tackles. If offenses can’t go big and push around 3 defensive linemen, then the eternal struggle will evolve once again.

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