Next Coach Up: Insight into the NFL Head Coaching Landscape
By Blake Yagman
Some NFL Head Coaches Are About To Get Fired: Who Do You Want As Your Next Head Coach?
There is only one position on a National Football League field more important than quarterback: Head Coach. The modern, Goodell-era NFL, the role of the head coach has never been more important or demanding.
If I were to start an NFL franchise today, the coach that I would want to lead my team is Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. Tomlin, the youngest coach in the NFL upon being hired away from the Minnesota Vikings, has the perfect mix of characteristics that franchises seek in a head coach.
Tomlin is differentiated by his rare mix of charisma, authenticity, and intensity; Coach Tomlin is the type of coach with a swagger that becomes the identity of his team. For as much as Patriots players repeat all of Bill Belichick’s dronings, Tomlin’s players reflect his energy and passion for the game (see Antonio Brown).
With all of that being said, lets find the next Mike Tomlin.
First, consider how many NFL coaching positions could open by the end of the season. This is important, because some teams have natural, in-house candidates who could be promoted and retained permanently (more on that later).
I believe that the Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, San Diego Chargers and Detroit Lions could all be inclined to make coaching changes before the end of the season. When I inquired about the Tennessee Titans, a source told me that the current owner “loves Mularkey.” Mularkey, of course, being head coach Mike Mularkey… not… well, Mularkey.
Each of the aforementioned teams (JAX, BUF, SD, DET) could fire their coaches as soon as after their next loss. Further, there are a couple of coaches who are on warm chairs: Chuck Pagano (Indianapolis Colts), Sean Payton (New Orleans) and John Fox (Chicago Bears).
Lets start filling some of these potential vacancies with potential candidates.
Teryl Austin, Detroit Lions (Defensive Coordinator)
Austin has been a hot name in the coaching circuit for a couple of years now; many predict it is only a matter of time before he is an NFL head coach. Austin first worked as a defensive coordinator for the University of Florida in 2010. After his stint with the Gators, Austin traveled north to Baltimore to become the Ravens defensive coordinator.
While with the Ravens, Austin’s defense ranked first in pass defense over the three years he spent in Baltimore.
I believe Teryl Austin will fill the Lions vacancy if they choose to fire current head coach Jim Caldwell this year. The Lions, if they are going to pursue this course of action, should act quickly; it is only a matter of time before other teams attempt to poach Austin from Baltimore.
Vance Joseph, Miami Dolphins (Defensive Coordinator)
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Vance Joseph was one of the first hires made by Miami Dolphins head coach Adam Gase this off-season. Joseph has worked to revitalize the Cincinnati Bengals defensive backs after the exodus of Mike Zimmer. Joseph has many of the same qualities as Mike Tomlin, especially in terms of charisma.
This is Joseph’s first season as a defensive coordinator, attempting to add some energy to a mediocre, lethargic Dolphins defense. Some of the positives: Joseph has helped to reawaken the beast that is Ndamukong Suh and continues to develop the skills of safety Rashad Jones.
Unfortunately, Joseph’s defense has suffered quite a bit this year as a result of the Dolphins atrocious offense and poor capacity to control time of possession. In Miami’s first two losses this year, the Dolphins defense struggled to stop the run but was still able to keep them competitive against the Seahawks and Patriots.
It is important, when attempting to hire a head coach, to understand the totality of the circumstances that coach has faced during his various tenures. Joseph, who has weathered the storm in Miami (as he did with Mike Singletary in San Francisco), is the kind of focused leader who can bring a lasting winning mentality.
Matt Patricia, New England Patriots (Defensive Coordinator)
I had a hard time deciding which New England Patriots assistant coach to pick as a likely head coaching candidate. While there are multiple on the staff, including former Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels, I believe that Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is too hot of a candidate to deny. Why?
According to multiple people familiar with the Patriots organization, Bill Belichick has a particular fondness for Patricia’s coaching philosophy. Apparently, Patricia is about as close to being Bill Belichick without actually being Bill Belichick.
While we have heard similar chatter out of New England before (Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel, Josh McDaniels, Eric Mangini, etc.), Matt Patricia arguably has the best results. This year’s Patriots defense, bereft of stars for the first time in a long time, feels like more of a cohesive unit than in years past.
In the absence of Tom Brady, the Patriots defense has been outstanding. Patricia’s coaching has lead to the emergence of playmakers who weren’t previously notable. This includes last year’s Super Bowl hero defensive back Malcolm Butler, linebacker Jamie Collins and safety Duron Harmon.
Steve Wilks, Carolina Panthers (Defensive Coordinator)
After the epic mistake of letting Josh Norman walk this off-season, Panthers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has had his work cut out for him. Before this season, Wilks was considered a potential head coaching candidate; today, he has the opportunity to cover up one of the front office’s worst mistakes. Circumstances such as this can help a coach define his career.
After being Pro Football Focus’ runner up to being secondary coach of the year last year, Wilks has become more recognized. Wilks has worked with Carolina head coach Ron Rivera dating back to his days in San Diego and Chicago.
In February 2015, Wilks was promoted to assistant head coach of the Panthers so that he could lead the team while Coach Rivera was absent. Wilks, who is actually a Charlotte native, continues to maintain a crucial leadership role with the Panthers both on and off the field.
Ken Zampese, Cincinnati Bengals (Offensive Coordinator)
Ken Zampese comes from a similar position as Steve Wilks: attempting to repair a unit with elite personnel and untapped potential. And, like Wilks, Zampese is going to have to find a way to make up for the deficits in personnel caused by off-season decisions made by the front office.
After the Bengals allowed receivers Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu depart, Cincinnati is not excelling on offense to the expectation of fans. Further, Zampese’s offense has deeply suffered due to the injury to star tight end Tyler Eifert.
Despite all of this, the Bengals still have a pretty good offense. They are fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game (291) despite having an atrocious offensive line (31st in sacks allowed) and no running game (28th in the NFL).
Zampese’s expertise in the passing game should be attractive to any NFL, especially in this pass-happy era of professional football.
So much goes into deciding to hire a new coach. Obviously, hiring an NFL coach is no cheap investment. Coaches can command a salary of over $6,000,000 per season and necessitate the hiring of a staff that they feel comfortable with.
Further, owners have to consider how much room for error they are going to allow their coach to have. Coaching contracts also often have “buy out” clauses, meaning they are to be paid a certain amount if they are terminated.
With all of this to consider, it should be interesting to see which NFL franchise chooses to make a move first. Will your team find the next Mike Tomlin?