Is Josh Jacobs a lock to be first RB drafted?

Alabama running back Josh Jacobs has been the near-consensus RB1 throughout most — if not all — of the 2019 NFL Draft season, but is he a lock to be the first running back drafted?

If you’re trying to understand the true valuation of running backs in the eyes of NFL evaluators, just stop. There’s no clear bright-line rule for when running backs should be drafted, and the narrative that first-round picks shouldn’t be used on one is false. The simple truth is this: if a running back has first-round talent, take him.

Sure, history suggests teams can find talented and productive running backs in the second round and beyond. But history also suggests the same can be said for just about every position in the game with varying degrees of success. But under no circumstances should players like Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley or Ezekiel Elliott not be first-rounders.

The question facing this year’s crop of running backs is whether there’s a prospect worthy of top-32 consideration.

Josh Jacobs has dominated the RB1 discussion since draft season kicked off and it’s easy to understand why. He has a prototype lead-back frame, has the kind of sudden movement skills and foot quicknesses that’s shared by top-tier starters and he runs behind his pads with powerful and hard-to-tackle leg drive.

But he isn’t a special prospect. In fact, he’s more of a projection than a prospect because of his limited usage at Alabama.

I’m not a fan of box-score scouting, but some numbers can’t be ignored. Jacobs hasn’t had a collegiate season with more than 640 rushing yards and he’s never had a workload that eclipsed 120 carries. Can we project his traits forward and take a leap of faith that with more touches come greater production? Sure. But is that a leap of faith you’re willing to take with a first-round pick?

Not me.

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His Crimson Tide teammate, Damien Harris, is an easier evaluation because of the number of reps he has on film. Harris will be a very good starting running back in the pros who can be had in Round 2; he’s a quality prospect. He has nearly twice as many carries to scout than Jacobs does, and you can be sure NFL teams have a better feeling about how Harris fits on Sundays. Is he special? No. Will he be productive? Absolutely.

It’s highly unlikely Harris will leapfrog Jacobs on draft day despite having a better career at Alabama. It’s also unlikely an appealing player like Penn State’s Miles Sanders can build enough momentum to unseat Jacobs, but I think it’s closer than draft media is assuming right now.

Sanders was an elite high school running back; a five-star recruit and the best overall player at his position. He was stuck behind Saquon Barkley for most of his Nittany Lion career, but was unleashed in 2018 for 1,274 yards and nine touchdowns. He starred at the NFL combine and is every bit a three-down running back moving forward.

None of this is meant to dismiss Jacobs’ projection. That said, buyer beware on a prospect who looks the part but doesn’t necessarily have enough of a body of work to prove he’s actually played the part.

There’s little-to-no chance Jacobs will lose his position as RB1 at this point. It’s almost too late in the process for another player to suddenly make that jump. Sanders took his best swing at the combine, and players like Harris just don’t have any special qualities to surge to the top of the rankings.