What to expect from Kyler Murray in his rookie season

The Kyler Murray era in Arizona begins now, but what should Cardinals fans expect from the No. 1 overall pick in 2019?

Arizona selected former Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray to become the new face of the Cardinals franchise, and after general manager Steve Keim confirmed this week that Murray will be the team’s starting quarterback in Week 1 against the Detroit Lions, it begs the obvious question: What kind of impact will Murray make in his first season?

“We didn’t draft him one overall to ride the pine,” Keim said via MLive.com. “I know it’s a lot to put on his back, but that’s why we drafted him. He’s a fierce competitor, and that’s what he did at Oklahoma this year. He put the team on his back. They didn’t have a great defense, and he knew he had to score on almost every series to give them a chance to win. I sort of like the chances there.”

The offense will revolve around Murray and his unique skill set, one that brings back memories of former Falcons and Eagles starter, Michael Vick.

Vick, like Murray, was the first-overall pick of the 2001 draft and while the style of offense in the NFL has changed since then, the impact Murray will make early in his career should be pretty similar.

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Vick started just two games as a rookie, so we’ll look at what he did in 2002 to build a baseline. He started 15 games that season and completed 54.9% of his passes for 2,936 yards, 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He did most of his damage as a runner; he gained 777 yards and eight touchdowns that year.

Is it fair to suggest Murray will have a similar year in 2019? Yes, it is. In fact, I think Murray will hover around 750 rushing yards in 2019. Lamar Jackson led all quarterbacks in rushing last season with 697 yards; Josh Allen was second with 631.

The bigger question facing Murray is whether he’ll be an effective passer right out of the gate. There’s no denying he has the arm talent to thrive in today’s wide-open passing game, and the Cardinals made a strong commitment to adding more receivers to the offense in the NFL draft.

Last year’s No. 1 pick, Baker Mayfield, led all rookies with 3,725 yards, proving the transition from Oklahoma’s offense to the NFL isn’t an impossible one to make. When factoring in Kliff Kingsbury’s college approach to the Cardinals’ offense in 2019, it’s fair to assume Murray can come close to Mayfield’s production.

Assuming Murray can stay healthy and his supporting cast of David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and rookies Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler play at their max level, a stat line of 3,350 passing yards, 775 rushing yards and 28 total touchdowns is well within his reach.

Murray is going to be one of the most exciting players to watch next season and will be a hot pick in fantasy football dynasty drafts. He’ll ultimately be judged by how many wins he brings to the desert, however, and it all gets started in Week 1.