Scouting the 2020 NFL Draft: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

In the latest installment of our ‘Scouting the 2020 NFL Draft‘ series, we focus on Oregon’s strong-armed and highly-regarded quarterback, Justin Herbert.

Justin Herbert, a former three-star prospect and top-five high school player in Oregon, was a multi-sport star in the prep ranks. In addition to his football prowess, Herbert was a second-team All-State first baseman.

It didn’t take long for Herbert to make an impact once he arrived on campus at Oregon. He was the first true freshman (2016) to start at quarterback for the Ducks since 1983. He finished that year appearing in eight games and completing 63.5% of his passes for 1,936 yards, 19 touchdowns and four interceptions. He again appeared in eight games during his sophomore season and improved his completion percentage to 67.5%, throwing for 1,983 yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions. In 2018, Herbert started all 13 games and finished the year with 3,151 yards, 29 touchdowns and eight INTs. His completion rate dropped to a concerning 59%.

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Physically, Herbert looks the part. He’s tall and has a frame that’s capable of adding more weight/mass. He should have little trouble holding up in the NFL.

Athletically, Herbert possesses above-average movement skills. He can escape the pocket and kick into an extra gear to take advantage of open space. He’s similar to Mitchell Trubisky (Bears) as a runner.

Herbert is a confident thrower who wins from a variety of launch points. There aren’t any glaring concerns with his throwing motion entering 2019. In fact, don’t mess with it; he can sling it. His footwork can get sloppy at times which more often than not leads to passes sailing beyond their target. I wouldn’t consider it a fatal flaw at this point, however. He just needs to become more consistent from the waist down.

Herbert has moments of elite upside on film. He’s capable of making throws with a rare level of accuracy that puts his receiver in the only position to make a play. There are times when he tries to put too much juice on the ball, however, and his accuracy suffers. That said, when he’s locked in, he can fit the ball through a keyhole. I’m a fan of his arm strength, too. He can make every throw with ease; the ball comes out of his hand scorching hot with very little effort.

Herbert’s effectiveness dips significantly when chaos ensues around him. He needs to develop more trust in his offensive line and receivers and stay on script.

Overall, Herbert will enter 2019 as a prospect with NFL starter’s ability who will benefit from going to a team with an established veteran who he can learn behind for at least a season (or two). His upside is unmatched in this draft. He has potentially elite arm talent, assuming he can learn to handle pressure more effectively and develops more consistency with his footwork. He reminds me of a cross between Josh Allen (Bills) and Mitchell Trubisky (Bears).