2021 NFL Draft: Who has the edge between Trey Lance vs. Zach Wilson?

Oct 2, 2020; Provo, UT, USA; BYU quarterback Zach Wilson (1) looks on after carrying the ball in the second half during an NCAA college football game against Louisiana Tech Friday, Oct. 2, 2020, in Provo, Utah. Mandatory Credit: Rick Bowmer/Pool Photo-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 2, 2020; Provo, UT, USA; BYU quarterback Zach Wilson (1) looks on after carrying the ball in the second half during an NCAA college football game against Louisiana Tech Friday, Oct. 2, 2020, in Provo, Utah. Mandatory Credit: Rick Bowmer/Pool Photo-USA TODAY Sports /
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2021 NFL Draft
2021 NFL Draft prospect Zach Wilson. Mandatory Credit: Rick Bowmer/Pool Photo-USA TODAY Sports /

Where Zach Wilson has the edge

The biggest area where Wilson has the advantage over Lance is in the amount of game film he has in 2020 and the recency bias of the circumstances. However, there are some on-field advantages that Wilson posses as well over Lance, and why some have him ranked as the third quarterback in this draft class.

The most glaring advantage is Wilson’s accuracy on throws over 30 yards down the field. While Lance and Wilson both have the arm talent to launch the ball to every level of the field and from both hashes, Wilson has shown to be more consistent on his deep balls and on passes outside of the numbers. Wilson has had the uncanny ability to drop throws in the bucket this season, wowing the national audience.

Ian Higgins of NFL Mocks gives his insight into Wilson’s game in his scouting report:

More from With the First Pick

"“When Wilson is getting the ball downfield or making throws through coverage, he has tightly-wound mechanics that get the ball out quick with good velocity and control. Additional velocity comes with a well-tucked front arm, and arm angle can be adjusted on the fly to manipulate throwing angles (a modern trend among young playmaking quarterbacks).”"

While Lance is good at creating plays off-schedule and outside of structure, Wilson thrives on it. As plays break down, Wilson has the ability to break out of sacks, navigate the pocket, extend plays, and fire down the field. He can throw from multiple arm slots and has a bit of Patrick Mahomes to his game (just a little, don’t go overboard).

After discussing where each Lance and Wilson have the advantage in the race for QB3, we now look at their 202 NFL Draft outlook and who has the best chance to be the first one off the board.