Overview – Jonathan Mingo
Jonathan Mingo is a Wide Receiver out of Ole Miss, a school that has produced receivers like Elijah Moore, D.K. Metcalf, and A.J. Brown over the past 5 years. Mingo will look to follow in their footsteps at the NFL level. He is closer to the mold of Metcalf and Brown than Moore, measuring in at 6’1″ and 220 pounds. Mingo has been a riser in the pre-draft process, with his value seeming to settle in the top 100-120 players in the draft for most. In a class filled with shorter, smaller, and seemingly slot destined receivers, Mingo sets himself apart with his size and X receiver potential.
Mingo stands out among receivers in this class for his blend of high level physical and technical abilities, with many receivers either having one or the other, or having both but to a lower degree than Mingo. Firstly with his athleticism, Kent Lee Platte, who can be followed on twitter here, does NFL analytics for Pro Football Network, developed a weighted measurement scale from 0.00 to 10.00, to contextualize combine scores by position, with data going back to 1987. Of the 2958 receivers who have tested at the combine, Mingo is the composite 9th most athletic receiver EVER with a score of 9.97, with the caveat of not doing any agility testing.
His incredible frame helps him a ton against press coverage, with long arms and a big frame making it difficult to move him off of his route. His physicality is a big reason as to why at Ole Miss he was lined up all over the field, taking snaps outside, in the slot, coming in and out of the backfield in orbit motion, and even in line as a tight end. He held his own at tight end due to his impressive prowess as a run blocker for a wide receiver.
Technically, he overcomes his slightly underwhelming short space burst with excellent footwork and technique on his routes and releases. In Lance Zierlein’s scouting report of Mingo on the NFL website, he notes how clear it is that Mingo puts in time and effort to honing his craft, and it absolutely shows up on tape.
He has crisp, clean breaks at the top of routes, with no wasted movement or steps to change direction, making him one of the best route runners in the class period, and certainly a standout among the bigger receivers. His quick feet also allowed him to frequently slip past defenders after the catch. Mingo is built condensed like a running back, so in the open field he is elusive and difficult to bring down. His quickest path to productivity in the NFL will most likely end up being as a big-slot/gadget type player, while continuing to hone is route running and separation skills to be a true X receiver.
Mingo most noticeable weakness is his production in college. Per the Ole Miss team website, Mingo only caught 51 passes for 861 yards and 5 touchdowns in his most productive season, which is particularly unimpressive when compared to some of the other receivers in the class’ seasons. He also struggles to create separation with burst.
He is not particularly sudden which might impact his ability to create a ton of separation against quicker cornerbacks in the NFL. He can also struggle to work back to underthrown balls, with it showing up on tape that he wasn’t able to adjust to catch a few throws that were probably in his catch radius.
I think as a prospect Jonathan Mingo is comparable to the prospect version of Deebo Samuel. Both played at an SEC school and faced pre-draft scrutiny due to their unimpressive college production. Both got moved around formations a ton and had very comparable physical strengths and weaknesses (similar size profiles and YAC ability, with similar questions about short space burst in relation to route running).
I can see Mingo being productive in a similar way to Deebo at the pro level as well, who is a 3 level threat who is given a ton of opportunities to get high-YAC potential touches throughout a season.
Round Projection – Mid-Late 3rd Round
This round projection is where it is expected he might be taken, regardless of where this report actually values him, which is more like an early second rounder. Prospect rankings found online commonly have Mingo anywhere between a Mid 3rd Rounder to a Mid 6th Rounder, with a sweet spot being found around the fourth round.
There are usually at least 10 receivers ahead of him, with names like Cedric Tillman, Jayden Reed, Michael Wilson, A.T. Perry, and Tyler Scott usually preferred to him, as well as the usual 6-7 names that float around for a top 45 pick consideration. For this value Jonathan Mingo might end up being one of the best value picks in the draft this year.
Jonathan Mingo is a player I am incredibly excited to see hit the field this upcoming fall. His strengths and weaknesses give a similar profile to players who are highly successful in the NFL, and in a way that is unique to him in this year’s draft class. As with all prospects a lot of his success in the NFL will be dependent on landing with the right team, but I can see him being a productive weapon for a team right away, with a pro-bowl talent level upside.
Games Watched: Vs LSU 2022, Vs Arkansas 2022, Vs Vanderbilt 2022