2023 NFL Offseason: Predicting a Joe Burrow contract extension
The Cincinnati Bengals and Joe Burrow will likely agree to a contract extension this offseason. Let’s take a stab at trying to predict it. Both Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts have gotten market resetting contract extensions this offseason, and they both deserved them.
The next quarterbacks on the list to receive extensions would be Bengals‘ stud QB Joe Burrow and Los Angeles Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert. In this piece, we’ll take a look at the potential contract that the Bengals and Burrow will agree on.
Let’s get started.
2023 NFL Offseason: Predicting a Joe Burrow contract extension
The first thing to get out of the way is the contract likely resetting the market. Burrow’s AAV will surely be more than Lamar Jackson’s. When Jalen Hurts agreed to his deal, his $51 million per year AAV took the top spot.
Jackson’s deal came in at $52 million per season, which barely passes Hurts’. I think it’s likely that Burrow’s agency will use Jackson’s and Hurts’ contracts as some sort of baseline/benchmark for Burrow’s.
The years on the deal are also important to look at as well. Patrick Mahomes signed a 10 year deal with the Chiefs a few years ago. Josh Allen’s deal with the Buffalo Bills was six years, but it seems like four or five years is the sweet spot.
But then, you have someone like Kirk Cousins who signs shorter extensions which allows him to cash in more frequently.
Since both Jackson and Hurts signed a five year extension, I have a feeling that Joe Burrow would want the same thing instead of a shorter deal so his contract has the same visual as theirs, if that makes sense.
The AAV is the tricky part. Will Burrow command $60 million per season? I don’t think that’s out of the question. Will the little bump that Jackson got above Hurts impact Burrow’s deal?
If I had to guess, I’d think that the next number to get to in the AAV section would be $55 million per year. That just feels right to me. $60 million per season will certainly be a number that we see on a quarterback contract at some point, but perhaps not just yet.
So, I think I’d feel confident in saying that Burrow would sign for five years and would have an AAV of $55 million per season. That would be a contract worth $275 million.
The next part to figure out are the guarantees. Jackson got $185 in total guarantees, and based on his $260 million contract, 71.15% of his total dollars are total guarantees.
For Hurts’ contract, that percentage would be 70.32%.
Every so slightly, Lamar Jackson got more of his contract guaranteed than Hurts did. Joe Burrow is likely wanting to surpass that percentage too.
Let’s make it easy and say that Burrow wants 72% of his contract in total guarantees. 72% of $275 million is $198 million in total guarantees, just shy of $200 million.
Well, I think we have our numbers.